Day Hagan Asset Management

During Q324, with the S&P 500 near 5700, we highlighted 5900 and 6100 price targets. #SPX printed 6099.97 last week. The Catastrophic Stop model remains bullish, but resistance, negative A/D Line divergences again, and a lot of bullishness suggest #volatility in the next few weeks. 6100+/- With DOGE looming in the background, “government work” takes on an interesting meaning. Following the initial broad, post-election topside surge by the domestic #equitymarket, the Index Movers (Large Cap Technology/Mag 7) have been in vogue, basically at the expense of the broad market (Figure 1). This has once again produced negative Advance-Decline divergences (a condition, not a signal—please reach out for a chart). Also, the Dow Jones #Transports has given back a good portion of its post-election rally, and Dow Jones #Utilities has given back all of its own rally. Continue reading at: https://lnkd.in/eDfDwpYt

In November, #domestic #equitymarket indices—including #capitalization, equal-weight, small, mid-, large cap, value, and growth—closed higher. With complacency (excessive optimism) building and a potentially sloppy start to 2025, price momentum is supportive until the month’s end. Steady As She Goes, With Bouts of #Volatility Last week, we highlighted a Four-Year Presidential Cycle chart for the #DJIA and its potential meaning for 2025 (please reach out for the chart). Let’s highlight a potential scenario for the year-end. Even if, as I hope and expect, we get a pullback or consolidation early this month, it would be historically unusual for domestic equities to completely fall out of bed between now and month-end.   From my experience, which was noted recently by Ed Clissold, is the belief that “Momentum leads price.” In other words, and within the context of the S&P 500’s price action in 2024, what is up tends to stay up. When “the rate of change slows, the risk of a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend increases,” according to Clissold. Continue reading at : https://lnkd.in/eARNdzt6

Near-term #resistance exists within a #bullish price channel and as negative A/D Line divergences are resolved. The Bulls remain in control, but we’re watching for signs that #postelection #market action is part of a transition to a choppier 2025. Bullish Trend Channels Noted technical analyst “Phil D. Gap” (kudos to Walter Deemer for this quip) notes that Large-, Mid-, and Small-cap proxies didn’t come close to filling the upside gap generated following the #election results. Nor did they break below their recent topside breakout ranges and levels. I view this as supportive (bullish) near-term. It also suggests the recent low offers the first level of short-term support. Continue reading at: https://lnkd.in/ebrevaNF

Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving! In recognition of the holiday, the Day Hagan office will be closed on Thursday, November 28, and will close at 1 PM ET on Friday, November 29. 

A question on many of our client’s minds: what do the results of this election mean for my wealth management strategy? Don Hagan, noted speaker and Head Portfolio Manager of Day Hagan Asset Management, delivered our Elevate keynote covering timely insights on communicating "what's next" to our clients. Ashton Thomas Private Wealth, LLC and its affiliates are not affiliated with Day Hagan Asset Management or any of its affiliates.

We are pleased to announce that Donald Hagan, CFA will be a Keynote speaker at the Ashton Thomas Elevate 2024 conference next week. We look forward to attending this conference!

Alongside the U.S. Presidential and Congressional election outcome, how equities react to today's Fed announcement may be significant in the short term. Considering yesterday’s moonshot, please incorporate a strategy emphasizing risk management. https://lnkd.in/e9n6TVAx #presidentialelection #election #equities #fed #riskmanagement #markets #equitymarkets #taxpolicy #tariffs #protectionism #financialmarkets #stockmarket

Due to Hurricane Milton approaching Florida, Day Hagan Asset Management is preparing for impact. We will close today at 1 p.m. ET (October 8, 2024) and remain closed through Wednesday, October 9, 2024. We may resume normal business hours on Thursday, October 10, 2024, depending on conditions. However, this is subject to change depending on weather and environmental conditions. For institutional clients, if you need assistance with your account or services, please contact Art Day, Donald Hagan, CFA, or Regan Teague, CFA®️, CFP®️ , by cell phone or by email. To our clients and friends in this storm's path, please stay safe!

Due to Hurricane Milton approaching Florida, Day Hagan Asset Management is preparing for impact. We will close today at 1 p.m. ET (October 8, 2024) and remain closed through Wednesday, October 9, 2024. We may resume normal business hours on Thursday, October 10, 2024, depending on conditions. However, this is subject to change depending on weather and environmental conditions. For institutional clients, if you need assistance with your account or services, please contact Art Day, Donald Hagan, CFA, or Regan Teague, CFA®️, CFP®️ , by cell phone or by email. To our clients and friends in this storm's path, please stay safe!

Summary Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 (#SPX) experienced its worst weekly decline in 2024. Last week, SPX experienced its best weekly gain in 2024. Similar reversals have been more #bullish than #bearish. Equity’s reaction to the Fed’s #interestrate decision doesn’t appear to change that belief. Tale of Two Cities Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 (SPX) was down over 4% in its worst weekly decline in 2024—the worst of times. Last week, the S&P 500 experienced its best weekly gain in 2024, up over 4%—the best of times. According to Jason Goepfert, “Over the decades, similar reversals have been more bullish than bearish.” Interestingly, before the Fed’s 50-basis-point cut on Wednesday, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, #DJIA, and most Advance-Decline Lines had already closed in new high territory, effectively leading the Large Cap Technology-weighted SPX higher—Figure 1. Continue Reading at: https://lnkd.in/e5eE_D5r