Enspire Energy, LLC

Nothing to See Here but a Cold Snap and Hot Prices! As colder-than-expected weather sweeps in, the natural gas market is seeing some notable changes, and I wanted to share an update that could be relevant for your business. ❄️ Prices are climbing. The January contract has risen to $3.38/MMBtu as colder weather has increased demand. Physical prices are slightly lower at $3.11/MMBtu but could move higher in response to continued cold. 🔥 Storage withdrawals in focus. Expectations for the next storage report suggest a larger withdrawal than initially forecasted, which could further tighten the market. 🎄 A holiday warm-up on the horizon? Forecasts suggest we might see some relief with warmer weather toward the end of December, but January is shaping up to be pivotal. A return to colder temperatures could push prices higher once again. 📈 Why this winter feels different. The natural gas market has become increasingly reactive due to shifts in how producers and end users hedge supply. This dynamic makes early winter especially volatile, with prices quick to respond to changes in demand or weather patterns. At Enspire Energy, we’re closely monitoring these trends to help our customers navigate the market. If you’re curious about how this might affect your natural gas costs or want to discuss strategies to lock in reliability and affordability, let’s connect—I’d love to help. #NaturalGas #EnergyMarketUpdate #ColdWeather #EnergySolutions

BRRR!!

Frosty Forecasts and Fiery Markets: December’s Natural Gas Surge As we head into December, the natural gas market is heating up—quite literally. The December contract hit $3.425 this morning, an eye-popping 14% jump from Tuesday’s close. What’s behind the spike? Colder-than-expected weather models are driving up demand expectations, and traders are scrambling to cover short positions, pushing prices even higher. But before we all start bracing for a permanent price hike, let’s keep an eye on the fundamentals. Production is steady, spot prices are still lagging behind the NYMEX curve, and LNG exports have eased up after last week’s highs. That said, technical momentum is strong—gas is trading above its 200-day moving average for the first time in months, which could sustain the rally for now. According to EBW Analytics, much of this is driven by speculators unwinding their positions, compounded by a colder early-December forecast. Still, the market may need to see a return to milder weather before things level out. Bottom line? The short-term picture looks strong, but over the next month or so, there’s potential for a pullback. If you’re looking to make a move, now’s the time to watch the weather and the charts closely.

Natural Gas Trends: The Chill Is Real, and So Is the Market Momentum As temperatures drop and we enter the withdrawal season, the natural gas market is heating up. Drawing insights from the latest EIA report, the December NYMEX contract dipped to $2.83/MMBtu earlier this week but rebounded sharply, climbing back above the $3.00 psychological mark. Baby, it’s getting cold outside! For the first time in a month, the Week 3 forecast shows colder-than-normal temperatures, with heating demand increasing across the board. Gas-weighted heating degree days (gHDDs) rose by 5 in the forecast, and daily LNG feedgas demand is testing 14.0 Bcf/d. Meanwhile, natural gas production is recovering more slowly than anticipated, adding bullish momentum to the mix. On the spot market, Henry Hub prices broke the $2.00/MMBtu barrier for the first time in two weeks, signaling a potential shift in sentiment. However, infrastructure challenges remain a hurdle for long-term growth. Delays in turbine acquisition, extended construction timelines, and potential tariffs are creating significant roadblocks for expanding gas-fired power generation, adding another layer of complexity to the market outlook. Looking ahead, while December heating demand may fall slightly below long-term averages, it is expected to outpace last year’s levels significantly. This could help chip away at storage surpluses and support prices as we move deeper into winter. For now, the market appears poised for further upside, with seasonal demand and supply dynamics setting the stage for an exciting end to the year. Stay warm, and stay tuned!

On Standby: Gas Producers Hit Pause, Awaiting the Price Surge Price fluctuations have occurred over the past few days. Natural gas prices have responded to weather patterns, maintenance and a hope for an increase in demand. Spot pricing seems to rebound but are gradually increasing from a very low level, though still lagging behind future pricing. The upcoming forecast predicts that cold weather is just around the corner. We expect heating demand to increase but still be below normal for this time of year due to the warm weather. This warm weather and low pricing have decreased overall production which may support prices if heating demand continues to grow. Speaking of production, Coterra Energy shared in its latest earnings report that it has temporarily halted both drilling and completion activities in the Marcellus region, choosing to hold back production until Northeast spot gas prices show a substantial improvement. The company anticipates a 3% decrease in natural gas output due to these curtailments, with November’s reduction expected to average around 0.34 Bcf/d. Additionally, Coterra has 11 completed wells standing by, ready to go into production as soon as prices make it economically viable. Looking ahead, higher heating demand and tighter supply could stabilize prices in the near term. However, if mild weather continues and storage injections are ongoing, it may limit how much prices can rise. It looks like natural gas producers are ready to strike...but only when the price is right!

Too Hot to Trot or Bust: Record-Setting Heat Wave in the Natural Gas Market Recent market movements reflect a significant heat wave pushing the August gas contract close to $2.00/MMBtu, with Henry Hub spot prices reaching $1.98. This heat wave resulted in lower-than-expected power burns, though Dominion Power set new load records exceeding 23,000 MW this summer. Traders remain cautious amid ongoing Freeport outages and uncertainty following Beryl, complicating clear market signals. In Texas, cooling demand is expected to remain subdued, while the Southeast forecasts below-average conditions until August. Despite potential regional demand increases due to northern heat, sufficient supply from the East, Midwest, and Canada suggests that further bearish factors are needed to drive prices significantly below $2.00/MMBtu. Looking ahead, the decline in NYMEX gas pricing is projected to stabilize storage levels around 3,862 Bcf, supporting prices near the $2.00/MMBtu mark. Short-term momentum remains bearish with minimal catalysts for an immediate rebound, influenced by cautious trading amidst mild weather forecasts and operational uncertainties. Kinder Morgan underscores the necessity for natural gas infrastructure expansion, citing forecasts indicating a substantial peak load increase by 2030. They dispute projections favoring renewables, highlighting ongoing commercial discussions for significant power demand, including data centers. Week 4 forecasts indicate continued warmth in the North and seasonal patterns in Texas and the Southeast, with stable cooling degree days (CDDs). Models suggest heat in the Midwest and Northeast, alongside heightened hurricane risks by mid-August. However, reduced CDDs compared to previous months pose challenges in stimulating natural gas prices without significant heat in key demand areas. Additionally, anticipated demand losses from Beryl may exacerbate market reactions to emerging tropical threats. Guess we’ll wait and see… Riding this market out like a hurricane 🌀

Too Hot to Trot or Bust: Record-Setting Heat Wave in the Natural Gas Market Recent market movements reflect a significant heat wave pushing the August gas contract close to $2.00/MMBtu, with Henry Hub spot prices reaching $1.98. This heat wave resulted in lower-than-expected power burns, though Dominion Power set new load records exceeding 23,000 MW this summer. Traders remain cautious amid ongoing Freeport outages and uncertainty following Beryl, complicating clear market signals. In Texas, cooling demand is expected to remain subdued, while the Southeast forecasts below-average conditions until August. Despite potential regional demand increases due to northern heat, sufficient supply from the East, Midwest, and Canada suggests that further bearish factors are needed to drive prices significantly below $2.00/MMBtu. Looking ahead, the decline in NYMEX gas pricing is projected to stabilize storage levels around 3,862 Bcf, supporting prices near the $2.00/MMBtu mark. Short-term momentum remains bearish with minimal catalysts for an immediate rebound, influenced by cautious trading amidst mild weather forecasts and operational uncertainties. Kinder Morgan underscores the necessity for natural gas infrastructure expansion, citing forecasts indicating a substantial peak load increase by 2030. They dispute projections favoring renewables, highlighting ongoing commercial discussions for significant power demand, including data centers. Week 4 forecasts indicate continued warmth in the North and seasonal patterns in Texas and the Southeast, with stable cooling degree days (CDDs). Models suggest heat in the Midwest and Northeast, alongside heightened hurricane risks by mid-August. However, reduced CDDs compared to previous months pose challenges in stimulating natural gas prices without significant heat in key demand areas. Additionally, anticipated demand losses from Beryl may exacerbate market reactions to emerging tropical threats. Guess we’ll wait and see… Riding this market out like a hurricane 🌀

Happy Independence Day from all of us at Enspire Energy! Today, we celebrate the land of the free and the home of the brave. Wishing everyone a safe and enjoyable holiday filled with fireworks, family, and fun. 🇺🇸 #IndependenceDay #4thofJuly #America #LandoftheFree #HomeoftheBrave

Fired Up: Markets Ignite The July natural gas contract price has weakened to $2.759, reaching a critical inflection point, representing an 11% drop since last Tuesday. While this price drop benefits many end users, we anticipate a rebound due to the impending heat wave. However, if the technical support at current levels fails, prices could fall back to the $2.50s range. Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) have increased by 10 CDDs over the past 24 hours for Weeks 2 and 3, with both weeks nearing 100 CDDs each before July 4th. This typically indicates a significant increase in cooling demand, which drives up natural gas prices. Despite the heat wave, more seasonal weather in Texas and Florida may reduce national gas burns, impacting NYMEX prices. Texas is expected to experience cooling rains for most of the week, potentially lowering the state’s power burn totals. Over the next 30-45 days, we expect natural gas prices to rise due to the anticipated heat wave. This heat is likely to continue reducing storage levels, aligning with our end-of-season target range of 3,900-3,950 Bcf. Production, Supply, and LNG Although early-cycle production is softer this morning, overall production has reached a three-week high. This upward trend in production may continue with the long-awaited Mountain Valley Pipeline coming online, higher spot prices, and stronger demand. Canadian natural gas imports have increased by almost 0.5 Bcf/d week-over-week, contributing to the overall supply. Mexico is expected to increase its supply within the next ten days. New Fortress Energy’s LNG export facility is set to receive its first cargo by July, sourced from the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline. This increased export capacity is a bullish factor for natural gas prices this summer. Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) Increased natural gas production in Appalachia is one of the notable developments this past weekend. Pipeline indicators suggest a 0.5-0.7 Bcf/d increase in production, potentially influenced by the newly operational Mountain Valley Pipeline. The Appalachian regional average spot price has risen to $1.70/MMBtu, reflecting producer anticipation of strengthening in-basin demand due to the record heat wave in the Mid-Atlantic region this week. Although most of the returning production is expected from mid-to-late July onwards, the early increase in production facilitated by the Mountain Valley Pipeline could soften the bullish impacts of the immediate heat wave. This increased production capacity is likely to contribute to a more balanced supply-demand dynamic in the near term. Only time will tell who the real MVP is.

Hot to trot!