Federal Budget IQ

Federal Budget IQ's Charles Kieffer broke down the disaster response supplemental budget request from the Biden Administration. The original request of $98.6 billion has now been augmented. On November 27, 2024, the Biden Administration transmitted additional requests totaling $16.1 billion for repairs to federal facilities. The $98.6 billion request—primarily responses to Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton—are extensive. They include: $40 billion for FEMA's Disaster Relief Fund; $21 billion for USDA for crop and livestock losses; $12 billion for the HUD Community Development Block Grant Disaster program; $8.1 billion for DOT; and billions for other agencies and programs. Kieffer breaks down the request, likely legislative approaches for passage, and hurdles it will face on Capitol Hill. There is no question that the package will be trimmed though where and by how much is up in the air. For more, see the link below. #disaster #fy25 #continuingresolution #fema #disasterloan #congress #appropriations #hurricane #biden https://lnkd.in/gnhiv8kf

Federal Budget IQ's Chauncey Goss provides a summary of what to expect from the second Trump administration for the Department of Defense. The top line for FY25, already essentially increased above the caps by the Senate will likley increase still further in the final deal, even if that deal is delayed until March. And while first budgets are often "transitional" in nature that isn't likely to be the case for the new Trump administration. Instead, the topline is likely to continue to grow. For more details on likely strategic priorities select the link below. #fy25 #fy26 #federalbudget #federalcontracting #defense #defence #defensebudget #defenseindustry #spaceforce #nuclearenterprise #china #taiwan #missiledefense https://lnkd.in/en2ZucWJ

Federal Budget IQ's Austin Smythe and David Taylor summarize how the elections will alter federal spending patterns for the rest of FY25. A now-likely 6-month CR, and changes in White House priorities coming out of elections, the protracted Presidential transition and the Senate flipping to Republican control will all combine to slow federal spending through Q2. That means that the Q4 spending surge above typical levels we saw in FY24 will likely be even more exaggerated for FY25. For more, see the link below. #fy25 #appropriations #congress #senate #defensecontracting #defenseindustry #federalworkforce #houseofrepresentatives #budget #defence #defense #federalcontracting https://lnkd.in/ebcg3Hp3

Federal Budget IQ's Becky Leggieri breaks down CNO Adm. Franchetti's plans for the Navy this week. Her priorities, identified in the September 18 Navigation Plan for America’s Warfighting Navy (NAVPLAN) include seven targets but on close inspection, two themes come through: readiness and technology. Eliminating maintenance delays for ships and aircraft, doing a better job taking care of personnel and recruiting, improving combat training (real world and virtual), and imrpving critical shore-based infrastructure all fall into the readiness bucket. Scaling robotic and autonomous systems to "integrate more platforms at speed" and creating more modern command centers "to win on a distributed battlefield" fall into the modernization bucket. Leggieri highlights some key program areas from the FY25 budget request that illustrate the modernization efforts including uncrewed undersea and surface vehicles and uncrewed aircraft programs. But she also points out a policy-funding mismatch has arleady emerged. Earlier Navy plans admitted that the department's goals required a 3-5% budget increase above inflation. That hasn't happened. That means all eyes will be on Congress and the department this fall to see (a) if budgets are increased, and (b) what gets sacrificed when there isn't enough money to go around. For more details see the link below. https://lnkd.in/e4PiD2u6 #fy25 #budget #defense #defence #congress #ndaa #appropriations #navy #china #houthi #iran #russia #readiness #marinecorps

Federal Budget IQ's Charles Kieffer reviews upcoming scenarios for Congress -- both disaster response funding and regular full-year funding for FY25 this week. We're still waiting to see the size of the disaster response request from the Biden Administration which may affect when Congress comes back early or sticks to its plan to wait until Nov. 12 (after the Nov. 5 elections). Either way, Congress will face a big price tag given the extent of damage caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton. Additionally, Congress needs to: pass an extension of the expiring Farm bill; the National Defense Authorization bill; address earlier disasters such as the Maui fires and the Baltimore bridge; debate more Ukraine aid; and hold House and Senate party leadership elections. For more details, use the link below. #fy25 #budget #disaster #fema #sba #congress #senate #houseofrepresentatives #biden #flood #hurricane # https://lnkd.in/gAgmiq5x

Federal Budget IQ's Chauncey Goss provides an update on the Space Development Agency's expansion of the number of military low earth orbit satellites this week. The Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture Tranche 0 currently has 27 satellites on orbit. Over the next three years, Tranche 1 will launch approximately 160 satellites, and tranche 2 bring the total to between 300 and 400 satellites. SDA estimates that an additional 200 satellites and associated ground services will be procured under Tranche 3. The agency plans to release solicitations to industry for Tranche 3 of the PWSA’s tracking and transport layers next year for satellites that will be launched in 2028 to replace Tranche 1 satellites that reach the end of their operational service life. The aggressive schedule will provide a wide range of capabilities, including improved missile warning and tracking, the capacity of tactical data links, position, navigation and timing resilience, and mission and network management. For more details, see the link below. #space #defenseindustry #defensecontracting #defence #defense #fy25 #satellite #congress #ndaa #houseofrepresentatives #senate https://lnkd.in/ed7mH8mi

Federal Budget IQ's Chauncey Goss highlights a long-term challenge for the Department of Defense this week -- a $50 billion deferrred building maintenance bill. There are multiple elements to this challenge including: 1. The intended life-span of a building; 2. The current average age of buildings; 3. The impact of deferred maintenance on life-span; 4. Budget limitations (that backlog won't be worked down all at once); and 5. The need to upgrade existing buildings with long remaining life-spans, including IT modernization. For more details of the problem and the opportunities for industry, click the link below. #budget #facilities #dod #pentagon #defense #defence #informationtechnology #fy25 #fy26 #defensecontracting #federalcontracting #defenseindustry https://lnkd.in/e7Mun8-F

Federal Budget IQ's Austin Smythe provides an overview of the presidential transition process and the impact that has on the federal budget. We're in the pre-election phase with the clock ticking down to Nov. 5. Phase two starts the next day. Up until election day, campaigns are much more focused on winning the election than what comes next but a well-run campaign does think ahead, especially about personnel. There are thousands of political appointments to be made by a new president. Another focus of the President-elect, their advisors, and his or her transition team is to prepare administrative actions for rapid execution -- some new presidents have "first 100 days" plan. That effort usually includes a series of executive orders right out of the gate. Additionally, the President-elect and his team will begin preparing a legislative program, including in this case the President’s FY26 Budget. Since 1993, newly elected presidents usually wait to get their Senate-confirmed team in key roles before submitting a full budget. As a result, new administrations usually submit a summary of the budget in late February or early spring followed by the full submission in April or May. For more, see the link below. https://lnkd.in/eifHmU_K #election #2024 #fy26 #presidentialtransition #politics #budget #appropriations #tax #politicalappointees #GSA

Our CEO and Founder, David Taylor, summarizes Federal Budget IQ's election outlook in this excerpt from our monthly report. After a wild ride the past 90 days, the trends are becoming clearer with every round of polling. The most likely outcome now increasingly appears to be divided government, with a 65% chance the Democrats retake the House, a 75% chance the Republicans regain control of the Senate, and Vice President Harris winning the White House. In the short run, that augurs well for completing FY25 appropriations action before the end of the December. Republicans wouldn't have any significant advantage in pushing action into the new year. Over the medium term, David says: "The net result will be two years of legislative gridlock with operational implications for the White House, Congress, budgets, and agency planners. Barring an external event, we won’t see a massive legislative and spending agenda like we witnessed during the 117th Congress." Click the link below for the full analysis. #election #fy25 #budget #appropriations #houseofrepresentatives #senate #politics #kamalaharris #trump #continuingresolution https://lnkd.in/ebSX2HR5

The Senate Appropriations Committee's FY25 Defense bill is a critical sign post for where Congress will eventually end up--even if it's more than the Fiscal Responsibility Act caps. Federal Budget IQ's Chauncey Goss lays out some of the big picture context, including the upcoming continuing resolution, and highlights some of the SAC increases for procurement and RDT&E programs. Given major differences between the House-passed FY25 Defense Appropriations bill and the SAC-approved version, those specific increases are likely to change before FY25 Appropriations are finalized. That won't be until well after the November elections. But these increases are a market signal representing bipartisan SAC priorities. Regardless of the outcome of the November elections, FY25 Defense spending is likely to exceed those caps. #fy25 #congress #appropriations #hac #sac #defense #defenseindustry #defensecontracting #defence #C4ISR #tech #missiledefense #darpa #jadc2 https://lnkd.in/eDyHjx5Y