Fidelis Capital Partners

Naughty or nice? In the spirit of the holidays, I reviewed fixed income performance this year and decided who got coal (hint: not the Fed). Don’t worry, I checked my list twice… Looking at 2025, I discuss a handful of themes we are watching:          - Uncertainty near records highs (as discussed in my latest Forbes.com article)          - Inflation, the dollar, security selection and budget with the new administration          - What’s next for the Fed          - Tight spreads hanging around The key for 2025 is FLEXIBILITY. If you have the flexibility to react and react quickly to take advantage, then you'll do well. Clients in our Tax Aware Fixed Income (TAFI) strategy have this flexibility built in and will continue to capitalize on market changes. Take a watch for my breakdown. Happy holidays to all!

This time of year reinforces the value of gifts that truly endure—time together, cherished traditions, shared experiences and meaningful legacies. We’re honored to support clients in building a lasting impact for their families and future generations. With the holidays just around the corner, we hope this season brings moments of connection, joy and reflection with your loved ones. Wishing everyone a joyful holiday season and a prosperous new year.

Uncertainty in U.S. economic policy is spiking across the board. In particular, uncertainty surrounding trade policy has driven fiscal policy uncertainty to levels not seen since 2019 and the Covid pandemic. The knock-on effects of this increase in fiscal policy uncertainty, along with inflation expectations volatility, has moved monetary policy uncertainty higher as well. My point here is to highlight the increase in policy uncertainty and how it may lead to failed predictions in 2025 market outlooks. Check out my latest Forbes.com article for more info on this interesting data set and to learn why I’m sticking to monthly (or more frequent) recaps over 2025 forecasts: https://lnkd.in/edn7JwGJ

The differential in global interest rates is a major driver in the ebb and flow of investment capital—and unexpected policy moves can send waves through global #markets. Market expectations for policy rate speed and direction (vector) can wreak havoc when one aspect moves unexpectedly…remember the yen carry trade unwind in August. With the potential for the new administration to have a significant impact on global economies, it’s important to consider how the monetary policies of other countries can affect our economy. Read my latest Forbes.com column through the link below for more commentary.

The Florida RIA Summit 2024 resumed with a panel examining how alternative investment strategies fit alongside traditional assets. Moderated by Paul Z. Shelton Jr., MSF, CIO at Warwick Shore Advisors, panelists Rick Simonetti, CEO of Fidelis Capital Partners, and Becky Lightman, Founder of Lightman Capital joined in to offer insights on portfolio diversification and client engagement in a three-dimensional approach to investing. The day continued with a session on Navigating Growth Opportunities for RIAs - Should advisors build, buy, or sell? D. Tyler Vernon, CBEC® of Merit Financial Advisors led this conversation, inviting Eric Bailey of CAPTRUST and Brett Orvieto of Dakota Wealth Management to share growth strategies and succession planning for RIAs, focusing on the pros and cons of acquisition versus organic growth in today’s booming RIA landscape. The Women in the Wealth Management Industry panel invited a powerhouse of women to the stage! Moderated by Cary Carbonaro, CFP® Professional, MBA, Managing Advisor at Ashton Thomas Private Wealth, the panel included insights from Vanessa Alonzo of Steward Partners and Maggie Rogers Bilby, CFP® of Cyndeo Wealth Partners on strategies for enhancing diversity and supporting female investors. The summit wrapped up with a session on Increased Offerings in Holistic Financial Planning - Michael S. Schiff, J.D., AEP, TEP of Klingenstein Fields Advisors, Mark H Woodward of KANA Private Wealth Group, a Veteran owned business, and Cameron A. Cassedy, CFA of Cassedy Financial Group covered tax mitigation, generational wealth transfer, and wealth alignment. Attendees closed out the day with a Happy Hour Networking session, enjoying connections, insights, and new strategies to elevate their practices! #PortfolioSummits #FloridaRIASummit #WealthManagement #FinancialPlanning #AlternativeInvestments

“Veterans Day is a chance to be intentional about recognizing veterans for their and their families’ sacrifice. Because I’m a veteran, I’m always delighted to connect and help other veterans in whatever capacity I can,” says President Matthew Ellis, CPWA®. “When I meet a veteran, I don’t know everything about them, but I at least know that they share some core values that led them to serve their country.” To salute their service, we asked Matt and other veterans on our team to share their stories and personal reflections. Take a moment to learn more through the link below. Their commitment to protecting and serving our nation reflects the same integrity, discipline and leadership they bring to Fidelis. Thank you to all #veterans and their families for their unwavering commitment and sacrifice, today and every day.

I’m excited to join the Florida RIA Summit as a panelist this year. Looking forward to another great discussion, see you Thursday!

While the election looms large on financial markets, let’s not forget about inflation and jobs. Today’s release of the September PCE price index came in as expected, up 0.2% MOM. Tomorrow is jobs day... stay tuned as bond market volatility is quite high, and a miss in either direction could cause a significant move in yields.  I spoke about the Fed, where rates are heading, the outlook for fixed income and positioning in Fidelis Capital Partners’ Q4 Market Outlook Webinar. Listen to some of my thoughts from the webinar below. 

Our Q4 Market Outlook Webinar is now available. Tune in as members of the Investment Committee recap Q3, examine key themes affecting market outlook—including geopolitical and economic risks, the Fed, and China—and discuss Fidelis Capital’s portfolio positioning for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. Timestamps by topic accompany the webinar here: https://lnkd.in/eeYp9-zb

Mark your calendars for Wednesday, October 23 at 4:30pm ET and tune in for our Q4 Market Outlook Webinar. Members of our Investment Committee will provide a recap of Q3, examine key themes impacting market outlook and discuss Fidelis Capital’s portfolio positioning for the rest of 2024 into 2025. To receive the link directly to your inbox, email us at info@fideliscapital.com.