Geopolitical Futures

🌐 U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the closure of the U.S. military base in Alexandroupolis, Greece, apparently in response to pressure from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The base is a key logistics hub for NATO, supporting operations in Central and Eastern Europe, including arms shipments to Ukraine.

Like other developed countries, the U.S. faces an aging workforce and declining birth rates. This demographic shift has created a long-term decline in the U.S. labor force. Our new Graphic Essay breaks down the situation and what the future holds:

The U.S. has provided nearly $120 billion (115 billion euros) in financial, humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine. This is far more than any single European country or the EU. If Washington has its way, Europe's share of the burden is about to rise.

Donald Trump is trying to disrupt America because it’s unsustainable. He’s now trying to disrupt the world, because it’s unsustainable. - GPF Chairman George Friedman via Mauldin Economics Global Macro Update with Ed D’Agostino

The United States is overhauling its entire foreign policy. In this new approach, Washington expects allies (as opposed to the US) to take primary responsibility for managing their regions. GPF’s Kamran Bokhari has this analysis of the transition to this new order: https://lnkd.in/gtrsAxRt

In 2024, global unemployment remained stable at 5 percent, its lowest level in decades. The International Labor Organization does not expect unemployment to stay this low. An upward trend has already emerged in both low- and high-income countries.

Decades after the collapse of communism and the wars of the 1990s, Balkan states continue to grapple with weak institutions and entrenched corruption, and their political elites are resistant to meaningful reform. The protests unfolding in the Balkans, then, are not just about governance failures. - Antonia Colibasanu

At its heart, Geopolitical Futures is a forecasting company. But before we forecast, we analyze. And before we analyze, we speculate. We rarely publish our speculations, because they are ultimately errant thoughts meant to make sense of chaos. Worse yet, they are often wrong. But as U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin prepare to meet in Saudi Arabia, I thought it worthwhile to speculate, especially since we recently forecast that the world order is restructuring itself. As always, the normal caveats apply. Read my full analysis: https://lnkd.in/e5wQmt5m

In 2024, global unemployment remained stable at 5 percent, its lowest level in decades. The International Labor Organization does not expect unemployment to stay this low. An upward trend has already emerged in both low- and high-income countries.

To maintain its position as a world power should Europe double down on its continental experiment and form a united European army, or do the scars of history still prevent Europe from standing defensively on its own? I discussed this in my 2022 interview with The Red Line Podcast: