Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC

ICYMI. Run, don't walk to this new HedgeyeTV webcast featuring Michael Taylor and Keith R. McCullough 1-on-1. They shared some major market wisdom and actionable ideas you can’t afford to miss. Watch their full conversation FREE on-demand now! --> https://lnkd.in/ep9cQtzQ

With a h/t to the late and great historian Barbara Tuchman, from whom I borrowed the title, plus thanks to John Kamprath, CFP®, CEPA for catalyzing this post, I'm pleased to share my first long form note to Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC clients for 2025. "Long" in this context is measured by modern (overly hurried?) metrics, with the note shared here comprising four pages. I'm unsure if the note will win me many if any new friends--it's quite critical of certain players in contemporary finance--but I stand by what I wrote and hope readers find the piece useful even if they disagree with some or all (!) of it. Feedback welcomed and encouraged, publicly or via email to dsalem@hedgeye.com. Best wishes to all for a healthy and prosperous new year.

CLEAR YOUR CALENDAR! Start the new year with unmatched market insight in our first “Real Conversation” of 2025. Hedge fund veteran Michael Taylor sits down 1-on-1 with Hedgeye CEO Keith R. McCullough. This must-see webcast will dive into Mike’s bold predictions for the markets, economy, and geopolitics. Streaming live on Tuesday, January 14, at 11:00am ET, exclusively on HedgeyeTV, this critical market discussion will cover key themes and forecasts affecting investors’ portfolios in 2025. Access is free to this webcast live and on-demand.

Hedgeye Regional is coming to Southern California! Get your tickets to our Newport Beach, CA conference on February 27 now: www.hedgeyeregional.com. We are excited to partner with KraneShares! This conference will feature live presentations and Q&A with Keith R. McCullough, Daryl Jones, Joshua Steiner, David Salem, Jay V., Sean Jenkins, Andrew Freedman, CFA, Fernando Valle, CFA, and more!

Inflation is no longer just an economic term—it’s a painful reality affecting the lives of millions of Americans, from soaring grocery bills to sky-high restaurant tabs. In a lively discussion on "The Call @ Hedgeye" today, Macro analyst Joshua Steiner and Hedgeye CEO Keith R. McCullough brought the numbers to life with real-world examples of inflation’s impact. Steiner highlighted a recent Reddit post that spotlighted a jaw-dropping 32% price hike at a Texas restaurant in just three months, emphasizing the rapid pace of cost increases faced by everyday consumers. McCullough then turned the spotlight to global commodities, where inflation’s fingerprints are unmistakable. “Cocoa and coffee prices are on an epic tear,” he explained, before joking, “Pretty soon, instead of stacking gold coins, I might have to find a way to store coffee.” * * * New to Hedgeye? Download Keith McCullough’s new eBook, "Master The Market," and discover the proven investing strategies that have helped thousands of investors successfully navigate today’s changing markets. Get your free copy now! https://lnkd.in/eyvvcQ2m

Former U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad—America’s longest-serving governor—joined Hedgeye CEO Keith R. McCullough and KraneShares CIO Brendan Ahern for a timely discussion today on trade, tariffs, global economic/market implications and a lot more. Fun fact: Ambassador Branstad may be the only American to count both President Trump and President Xi as friends. He first met Xi in 1985, when Xi was a provincial official. Watch this discussion on-demand free → https://lnkd.in/euHnXCTM

We are excited to announce a special Real Conversation webcast, featuring former U.S. Ambassador to China (2017-2020) and longtime Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, alongside Brendan Ahern, Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares. Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith R. McCullough, this timely discussion will explore the future of U.S.-China relations and their profound implications for investors and the global economy. This live webcast will take place on Tuesday, December 17, at 11:00am ET. It will also be available on-demand.

In this 2-minute clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith R. McCullough and Macro analyst Ryan Ricci reveal the staggering impact of avoiding drawdowns. By simply steering clear of the 2008/09 crash, an S&P 500 investor could have more than doubled their returns. If you followed Hedgeye’s crash-avoidance strategies since our founding in 2008, your returns would have been 4x higher than the S&P 500. "You need to tell your 'Old Wall' friends about this," McCullough says. "I don't think there's a more powerful message than that." At Hedgeye, we specialize in staying ahead of market crashes and knowing when to get out. Protect your portfolio. Avoid drawdowns. Subscribe to "The Macro Show" today: https://lnkd.in/eMWrSqAt

True story re Fartcoin. Obviously the Fed is too restrictive.. lol

The pulse of the U.S. economy just delivered a jolt of optimism. NFIB Small Business data released on Tuesday surged to its highest level in more than three years, marking a dramatic turnaround that has analysts and investors taking notice. In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith R. McCullough breaks down the implications of this significant move and its potential to fuel an extended market bull run. "This is a very good leading indicator when you come out of the bottom," McCullough explains. "This is a gargantuan turn in small business. I can only go back so many times in my career and find something like this." Stay on top of every critical shift in macro data by subscribing to "The Macro Show": https://lnkd.in/eMWrSqAt