Higby Barrett LLC

Great news for ethanol producers. https://lnkd.in/e6zmi6ph

Amazing how selective breeding has improved your food supply. Not a big fan of any of the foods below.

Rate of growth is 100 percent but the industry is disappointed.

Egg prices and milk prices are exploding higher.

A good example of an acreage and production mindset.

In the past two months, H5N1 has significantly impacted egg layers in California, causing a substantial decrease in production. Last week, I highlighted the repercussions of bird flu on dairy cow output in that State. As I prepared this month's egg market update, I projected a decline in California's layer numbers for December, considering the losses incurred in November. It's important to note that the HPAI loss figures specifically refer to egg layers and do not encompass pullets as classified by APHIS in their loss assessments.

“SHIPS for America Act” is a new bill introduced in the US Congress. If it passes, not only container carriers but also US Shippers would be well advised to study it. Highlights which are important for container shipping: Over time minimum 10% of US import cargo from China to move on US built, flagged and crewed vessels. This applies at the level of the individual shipper under threat of fines. How to do this in practice is to be determined within 2 years of passing the bill, with the minimum US cargo share being gradually increased from year 5. Whether the 10% also applies to forwarders or only at the cargo owner level is not specified. Chinese owned or operated vessels will be penalized. This impacts not just the Chinese carriers but also carriers who are in alliance or VSA with Chinese carriers such as CMA CGM and Evergreen on Ocean Alliance. But also ONE and HMM on the Atlantic now operating together with Ocean Alliance. Presumably will also impact other carriers chartering Chinese owned vessels. The proposers of the bill state:” In effect, this will impose a new duty on goods imported on Chinese-owned or Chinese-flagged vessels” 100% of US government cargo is to move on US built, owned and crewed vessels - up from the current 50%. For deep-sea this presently clearly favors Maersk (MLL), CMA-CGM (APL) and Matson. US agricultural exporters to receive government subsidies to compensate for the anticipated higher shipping costs. Subsidies to pay the difference to market rates. How to define and measure these “market rates” are not defined. US flagged vessels to be given priority in US ports over foreign vessels if there is a queue. There are many more details and ramifications. In short, if this is applied as proposed it will increase shipping costs for US importers and exporters - except those exporters who are slated for government subsidies. More importantly it will create significant supply chain headaches for individual US shippers needing to clearly measure the share of cargo moved on US ships - especially if much of their cargo is from origins not necessarily served by such US vessels. It could significantly benefit transhipment hubs such as Busan and Singapore to shift Chinese goods into US vessels for shippers needing to meet their 10% quota. The port preference for US flagged ships in ports could result in worsening congestion problems rather than alleviating them in times of tight port capacity. Next would be to contemplate how China will react if the bill is passed. They could choose to similarly dictate Chinese vessels for a minimum share of their exports to the US as well as penalize US vessels. There is much here to digest and consider.

California has capped credits for biomass-based diesel derived from vegetable oils (soy+canola+sunflower) at 20% by company. This limit starts immediately for new plants and in 2028 for existing plants. Some estimates have stated that the share of these oils in California is only about 20%, but these numbers have excluded canola oil. The state data does not break out canola oil from the "other" category, and EIA data shows that canola oil is a significant renewable diesel feedstock. Likely, canola oil is a large share of the "other" feedstocks renewable diesel category in California. Accounting for the way the data is categorized likely puts the rate closer to 30%. If the credit generation cap on the vegetable oils were fully implemented today, it would be a binding cap. Update: The lines below also include canola for biodiesel, not just soy in renewable diesel and biodiesel. An updated chart is in the comments.

I love natural fibers like cotton and am proud to grow cotton using regenerative methods to produce cotton. 98% of the cotton we grew in 2024 was planted no-till. 50% of the cotton followed a cover crop and we have seen improvements in our soil health. It is good for us and helps sequester carbon from the atmosphere and put it in organic forms in the soil. We also have a small cotton gin that does an excellent job taking cotton from the field and seperating the fiber that grows from the seed. Here you see the cotton seed falling from from the bottom of the gin stand. The raw cotton seed makes an excellent feed supplement for cattle or it is processed into cottonseed oil and meal and other byproducts. All of these processes provide much needed jobs for rural communities. Polyester and other synthetic fibers are made by giant chemical companies and do not biodegrade.

Milk prices are heading higher.