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𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲   The rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape is forcing a reassessment of assumptions regarding Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe. In light of renewed speculation over a potential restoration of Russian energy supplies under a peace agreement scenario, we wondered about the implications for the LNG and LNG tanker markets. Marsoft’s Dr. Hauke Kite-Powell and Ryan Uljua, CAIA reviewed possible implications for LNG prices, shipping demand, and the broader energy market.   𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐚 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐥𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐚𝐝𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐟𝐭’𝐬 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐠𝐚𝐬 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐝? Our Base Case scenario calls for no change in Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe relative to current levels, and we still consider a return to pre-Ukraine-invasion volumes unlikely. But we must consider the consequences of such a return, regardless of the scenario’s likelihood.   𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐟𝐭 𝐞𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐩𝐢𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐬 𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞? We believe the LNG markets will rapidly equilibrate. A substantial increase in Russian pipeline supplies to Europe will sharply reduce European LNG imports, pushing down LNG spot prices in Europe and, by extension, in Asia. However, lower LNG prices would also stimulate demand from price-sensitive buyers, partially offsetting Europe’s declining import demand.   The dynamic would affect US LNG exports the most, which would face greater competition but could also benefit from longer-haul exports to Asia, thereby boosting tonne-mile demand for LNG carriers.   𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐦𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐋𝐍𝐆 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐩 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐛𝐬𝐨𝐫𝐛 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐍𝐆 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐢𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐬? In our Base Case, in which Russian pipeline flows remain cut off, LNG spot prices are relatively strong in 2025 and 2026 at $15-16/mmBtu, then decline to $10 by 2027.   If meaningful Russian pipeline gas returns to Europe in the second half of 2025, our analysis shows that 𝐋𝐍𝐆 𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐨 $𝟗/𝐦𝐦𝐁𝐭𝐮 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔, $𝟖 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟕, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 $𝟔 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟖. At those steep discounts, price-sensitive importers would likely absorb 80% of the displaced seaborne LNG no longer flowing to Europe.   For the market to fully absorb the excess LNG, spot prices would need to fall by another $2/mmBtu to $7/mmBtu in 2026 and $6/mmBtu in 2027. --- How much would LNG prices need to drop for markets to absorb displaced volumes if Russian pipeline gas returns to Europe? And what would that mean for US LNG exports and tanker rates? The potential impact on shipping could be surprising. Read our full analysis - 🔗 Link in comments.  

🌍 15 years of climate impact – and just getting started! 🎉 A big congratulations to ClimeCo on 15 years of pioneering decarbonization and sustainability solutions. Your work in reducing over 40 million tonnes of CO2e is an incredible milestone. At Marsoft, we’re proud to collaborate with ClimeCo on GreenScreen™, helping shipowners turn decarbonization into a smart investment. Through GreenScreen™, we provide world-class evaluation of retrofit options, Gold Standard verification of carbon reductions, and access to carbon credit revenues — at zero upfront cost. Together, we’re making a real impact in driving shipping toward a more sustainable future. Here’s to the next 15 years of innovation and action! 🚢⚡

Containership Markets: A Turning Point Geopolitical uncertainty is at a high in the aftermath of events in the Middle East and the change of the US Administration. We caught up with Marsoft’s Costas Bardjis to learn more about the consequences for containership markets.   𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘆? The liner industry enjoyed two unprecedented boom cycles during the last four years. But at the end of January 2025, containership operators and vessel providers are waking up to a different world. Most importantly, Houthi militants announced last week that they will cease their attacks on ships and allow Red Sea traffic to resume immediately, a development which could shake liner earnings in the coming months. Moreover, the change of Administration in Washington could drastically change the industry’s fortunes starting in 2025 and carrying out well beyond. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘅𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗥𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗲𝗮 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘀? More than any other shipping sector, the Red Sea turmoil benefited the containership markets. Regularly, 18% of global containerized trade was shipped via the Suez Canal. About 90% of this trade was diverted to longer routes around South Africa, substantially bolstering TEU-miles and increasing vessel demand by an extra 8% in 2024. As a result, liner operators enjoyed booming rates, as they barely managed to cover demand requirements by rushing newly built mega-ships into east-west services. A restoration of Red Sea shipments could render much of the extra tonnage redundant, thus reinstating overcapacity and crippling liner freight rates. --- The containership industry is at a pivotal moment. After years of booming growth, geopolitical shifts and the potential resumption of Red Sea transits are forcing operators to rethink their strategies. But how soon could Red Sea shipments fully resume, and what does this mean for liner operators? How will the new US administration’s policies impact global trade, and is there a way forward for containerized shipping amidst these challenges? 👉 Read the full interview with Marsoft’s Costas Bardjis to uncover insights on these pressing topics, including the risks of overcapacity, market resilience, and strategies for navigating a turbulent future. Find the link to the complete article in the comments!

Megan Kennedy on New Tariffs Impacting LPG Trade Across multiple LPG market calls we’ve attended over the last month, industry players talked about the recent state of the market as well as what’s to come in the coming years for LPG trade. Topics of conversation ranged from lower-than-expected VLGC rates in 2024 Q4, to expected supply growth out of the US and Middle East going forward, to the startup of ethane and longer-haul ammonia trades. While all of these topics are worth deliberating, one important issue was markedly absent from presentation slide decks: the implications for US LPG trade to China now that the new Trump administration is expected to impose tariffs on goods from China. At Marsoft, we see this issue as having very significant implications for LPG trade and in particular, VLGC tonne-mile trade starting as soon as later this year.   We covered this issue in our last LPG/VLGC Market Report for 2024 Q4 and expect it to be a major sticking point going forward. We believe it is highly likely China will retaliate against Trump-imposed tariffs by slashing LPG imports from the US, in a repeat of 2018/19 developments during the first Trump administration. In our 24Q4 Base Case, this translated to a displacement of roughly 75% of US LPG exports to China after 2025, or the equivalent of around 8 million tonnes. Following the original 2019 developments, China resumed importing LPG from the US about a year later – we considered a similar outlook in our High Case scenario.  However, our Base Case assumed that China will curb its LPG imports from the US throughout our forecast horizon (through 2028).   Given that the US is the largest exporter of LPG (accounting for up to half of global LPG exports in 2024), and that China is the largest importer of the fuel (accounting for roughly a quarter of total LPG imports), the impact of a Chinese retaliation against US-imposed trade tariffs is worth talking more about. We expect this to be one of our primary topics for discussion in our upcoming 2025 Q1 LPG/VLGC Market Report. 🔗 Read this comment and other updates on our website.

These Sanctions are Different… Crude tanker rates surged last week in response to the announcement of another round of sanctions on the Russian energy sector, starting with a 50% increase in VLCC rates on Monday.  We spoke with Marsoft’s Kevin Hazel and Lucas Avelar to get their assessment of the impact of the latest sanctions.   𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝗮𝗻𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀, 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀, 𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀. 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗴𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁? They could have a big impact.  If 3% of the fleet is truly removed from trading, rates should hit $100k/day, even if they start from $20k/day before the sanctions were announced.   𝗗𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗻𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝗺𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗮 𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗿 𝗳𝗹𝗲𝗲𝘁? A total of 183 vessels, 143 of which are oil tankers and roughly half of which are Aframaxes or LR2s have been sanctioned.  The sanctioned tankers accounted for:   🔹 Roughly 7% of the Aframax fleet and about 3% of the total tanker fleet as of the end of 2024.    🔹About 40% of Russia’s total seaborne crude exports in 2024 (Russian exports accounted for about 11% of the volume of oil traded in 2024).   𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗻𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀? Both India and China initially signaled compliance with the sanctions, temporarily stranding several cargoes of oil aboard tankers just outside their ports. They have since indicated a willingness to receive the oil until the end of the transition window, which expires in March. Notably, Chinese private refiners have routinely purchased sanctioned oil through methods like ship-to-ship transfers to obscure its origin, largely without government reproach. However, this inefficient trade is unlikely to scale with the increased number of sanctioned vessels.   𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗲𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗼 $𝟭𝟬𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬/𝗱𝗮𝘆? Assuming that the sanctions hold steady throughout 25Q1, and that China and India do indeed comply with them throughout the period, we would see substantial changes in our forecast. We would expect tanker fleet utilization to increase by as much as 3%, with crude tanker rates likely rising above $100,000/day in response.   👉 Read the full interview on our website or via the images below.   Overall, we believe it is unlikely that the sanctions will be enforced in full. Nevertheless, there is great uncertainty in the market, and the threat of enforcement should keep rates healthier than at the start of the year. We will monitor developments closely over the coming month and will update our analysis of their impact on the tanker market in our 25Q1 Tanker Market Report, scheduled to be completed at the end of February.

Connecting the Dots: The Transformation of China’s Economy and the End of the Commodities Supercycle This week, the Financial Times echoed a theme we've been exploring at Marsoft: the profound transformation underway in the Chinese economy and its implications for global markets, particularly shipping and commodities. In their article, “The China Commodities Supercycle is Over. Will There Be Another?”, the FT outlines the decline in China's steel demand and broader shifts in its economic landscape. This analysis aligns closely with the insights we shared in our recent commentary, “Transformation of the Chinese Economy.” At Marsoft, we highlighted how China’s economic evolution is reshaping global trade. By analyzing key indicators like steel production, oil consumption, and exports, we’ve shown how the slowdown in industrial growth is far more significant than official GDP figures suggest. The FT’s report adds depth to this discussion, underscoring the end of the real estate-driven commodities boom and the challenges of finding a "new engine" for China's economy. These trends underscore the importance of adapting to a new economic reality. At Marsoft, we’re committed to helping our clients navigate this uncertain terrain by providing data-driven insights and forward-looking analysis. As the FT article suggests, the world is entering a period of slower growth and greater complexity. Understanding these dynamics is critical to making informed decisions in shipping and trade. We invite you to read our original commentary [link in comments] and explore how our research complements the FT's observations. Together, they paint a comprehensive picture of an economic transformation that will define the next era of global trade.

Transformation of the Chinese Economy   China’s economic slowdown has significant implications for global markets, particularly shipping. Recent reports of prominent Chinese economists being silenced after commenting on the slowdown highlight concerns over the reliability of official statistics. We spoke with Arlie Sterling, President of Marsoft Inc., to gain insight into what’s really happening and what it means for the maritime industry.   𝗜𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗴𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝘀𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆? That is what the Wall Street Journal reported on the 8th of January: “Xi Jinping Muzzles Chinese Economist Who Dared to Doubt GDP Numbers.” The Journal characterizes the policy as guided by Xi Jinping himself.   𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗴𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆? Yes, when we look at oil consumption, steel production, exports, and other figures most relevant for shipping. Those indicators don’t necessarily align closely with official GDP growth figures, but they are corroborated by multiple independent sources. As a matter of fact, these indicators contribute much more to our research and analysis than the GDP figures per se.   𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆? They tell us that the Chinese economy is in the midst of an immense transformation. Frankly, the GDP growth figures understate the scale of the transformation we see. The chart below shows how the key indicators we track – containerized exports, electricity production, steel production, and oil consumption – compare with the GDP growth figures. We look at three periods: 1999-2008, 2009-2018, and 2019-2024.   It's amazing how the Chinese economy has slowed over the past five years. Growth in most of our key indicators has fallen to 2% or 3% per year – from double-digit growth less than 25 years ago. Growth in the economic indicators we monitor has fallen much more rapidly than official GDP growth figures, although oil consumption has tracked GDP more closely. --- This excerpt is just part of our interview with Arlie Sterling. To find out whether China's GDP figures are overstated and what these trends mean for shipping, read the full interview on our website. ➡️ Click the link in the comments below to access it now!

𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰: 𝗡𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘀 As 2024 comes to a close, Jan Fraser Jenkins sat down with Arlie Sterling, President of Marsoft, to reflect on the year’s most significant developments. From unexpected trade disruptions to record-breaking ship orders, Arlie shares insights into what caught the industry off guard and how these surprises are shaping expectations for 2025.   Arlie, what were the big surprises of 2024? Well, there are a few days left so we cannot be sure that there aren’t more surprises coming! But there are a few big items that stand out to date:   🔹Changes in trade patterns due to ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and low water levels in the Panama Canal stand out in 2024. Relative to our expectations at the end of 2023 average distances are up 13% for containerships and about 3% for bulkers and tankers. On average, disruptions to trading patterns accounted for more than half the increase in the demand for ships between 2024 and 2023. 🔹The weakness in Chinese import demand, especially towards year end, was another surprise. Government efforts to boost demand fell short in 2024, leading to overcapacity and deflationary pressures. It is likely that those efforts will be redoubled in 2025, particularly in response to punitive tariffs. Our Base Case view is that Chinese GDP growth is likely to be slower in 2025 than 2024. 🔹Chinese steam coal imports were another surprise. We expected imports to moderate as hydroelectricity production was restored. Just the opposite occurred – Chinese steam coal imports are up by 67% in 2024 vs. 2023. Most of those fancy new electric cars are in fact coal-powered! 🔹Shipyards (especially Chinese builders) were the beneficiaries of the biggest surprise of the year: the surge in ordering. Orders in 2024 are double what we expected at the end of 2023! In dollar terms that amounts to a $60 billion commitment, mostly from liner companies and the LNG market (at current NB prices). Happy holidays for shipyards!   Of course, a lot more went on in 2024 – the collapse of the LNGC market in the last months of the year is pretty dramatic – but those are the most consequential surprises. ➡️ Continue reading the rest of the interview with Arlie on our website https://lnkd.in/dYgQzAUR We welcome comments and questions from our friends in the global shipping world.

“𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 & 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀” 𝗮𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝗔𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗺𝘆 Ryan Uljua, CAIA gave a presentation at the Marine Money Academy held in conjunction with the 2024 Ship Finance Forum in New York last week, where he engaged with a dynamic audience of young professionals. Ryan’s presentation, “Investment Truths in Shipping & Current Market Trends” sparked a lively discussion, beginning with an interactive exploration of shipping market cycles. He invited participants, including young professionals such as lawyers and graduate students, to share their views on where the shipping cycle currently stands. By the end of the presentation, after exploring key market data and indicators, participants gained fresh insights into the factors driving the cycle. Geopolitics and Market Disruptions A significant portion of Ryan’s talk focused on the impact of geopolitics on shipping over the past year, spotlighting the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. He marked the one-year anniversary of the hijacking of the Galaxy Leader and shared insights into Marsoft's Q4 2024 Base Case scenario, including the expectation that diversions in the region could continue through 2028 – longer than current market consensus. Shifting Dynamics in Shipbuilding Ryan also examined structural shifts in the global shipbuilding market since the last major cyclical peak in 2007. He discussed how changes in market share among shipbuilding nations – led by China – could shape newbuilding prices in the coming years, offering a glimpse into potential long-term trends. *** The Marsoft Q4 2024 Release is due out shortly – get in touch for more information on Marsoft’s view of the shipping markets. 𝑃ℎ𝑜𝑡𝑜: 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑦

🚢 Ryan Uljua to Speak at Marine Money New York! We're excited to share that Ryan Uljua, CAIA, Project Lead for Markets & Systems at Marsoft, will be presenting at the Marine Money Ship Finance Academy in New York tomorrow, September 21. In his session, "Investment Truths in Shipping & Current Market Trends," Ryan will dive into: 📊 The critical role of timing and pricing in shipping cycles and returns 🌍 Key supply, demand, and geopolitical factors driving markets today 🌱 Decarbonization challenges and the role of carbon markets in shipping Get ready for actionable insights into the trends shaping the future of shipping investments. #Marsoft #MarineMoney #ShippingFinance #Decarbonization #MarketTrends #CarbonMarkets