NATO Veterans Initiative - NAVI

Via USAWC: War Crimes and Accountability: The Law of Armed Conflict  By Alexandra Meise and Ron Granieri I 07.01.2025 A U.S. Army War College podcast (Better Peace) features a discussion of the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC), also known as international humanitarian law. Experts examine the LOAC's development, origins in treaties like the Geneva Conventions, and its role in addressing war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. The conversation highlights the challenges of enforcing LOAC in the midst of warfare, but emphasizes its crucial role in establishing accountability and protecting human life. Despite limitations, LOAC provides a framework for minimizing harm to civilians and non-combatants during armed conflicts. The podcast features Alexandra Meise, a leading expert in international law, and Ron Granieri, the podcast's editor. Thetext has been edited for length and clarity by the NAVI Research Institute.

Via Atlantic Council: What to expect from Poland’s EU presidency and its focus on ‘Security, Europe!’ By  Aaron Korewa I 06.01.2025 At the start of the year, Poland took over the rotating six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU) from Hungary. The Poles choose “Security, Europe!” as the theme of the presidency, and Warsaw said it will “support activities strengthening European security in all its dimensions: external, internal, information, economic, energy, food, and health.”  This is an ambitious agenda, and with Russia’s aggression against Ukraine rolling into a fourth bloody year, Warsaw’s focus is arguably the right one. Poland understands something that Russia has communicated on many occasions but that too many in Europe still seem to deny or ignore—that Ukraine is only one part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assault on the West. To prevail, the West must build resilience across the board. Poland has tempered expectations of its EU presidency by signaling that it does not seek to pass copious new amounts of legislation. Instead, it seeks to influence the overall political direction of the EU. Again, this is a wise decision considering these presidencies last for only six months and a new European Commission has just been formed. Done right, the country holding the presidency can act as an honest broker and help set the course that will extend well beyond its term. At a time when both Germany and France are on a hiatus from their traditional EU leaderships roles, the stage is very much set for Poland to lead. https://lnkd.in/ebSQ_m52

Via Atlantic Council: The Russia-Ukraine energy divorce offers a chance for Europe to take control of its energy security  By Olga Khakova I 06.01.2025 Through wars and military aggression, Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought a legacy of imperialistic unification. Instead, his twenty-five-year reign leaves Russia without a vital revenue stream from pipeline gas sales to Europe—with the last of the transit agreements having expired on January 1 after Ukraine refused to renew it. Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom has seen billions in losses as transit through Ukraine shrunk from 130 billion cubic meters (bcm) in the early 2000s to a meager 15 bcm in 2023. While future major long-term deals with Kyiv are out of the question following Russia’s illegal and unjustified atrocities in Ukraine, the window is still open for Russia to sell smaller volumes of gas on the spot market.  This puts Europe at a crossroads. Russia had succeeded in fostering a narrative that Europe’s economic prosperity hinges on cheap Russian energy sources by strategically monopolizing the European gas market with discounted prices. This myth was busted when Europe paid a trillion dollars in 2022 to mitigate the energy crisis manufactured by Moscow to blackmail Europe to abandon Ukraine. Europe now has two main options. It can put an end to Russian piped gas in perpetuity and build a secure, resilient economy with alternative supplies. Or it can cave under economic pressures and backslide into dependency through a patchwork of deals with short-term discounts. [https://lnkd.in/eBSBKbmb]

NATO in Syria Via Atlantic Council: Assad’s fall has created an opportunity for US-Turkey cooperation By Rich Outzen I 06.01.2025 The Atlantic Council's article is discussing the unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria and the resulting opportunity for renewed US-Turkey cooperation. The article argues that the shift in power, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, alters previously conflicting US and Turkish strategies regarding Syria, creating potential for collaboration on issues like regional stability and counter-terrorism. The author suggests that this realignment aligns with the incoming Trump administration's foreign policy goals, highlighting shared interests and the importance of Turkey in achieving them. However, the article acknowledges the need for patience and trust-building to overcome past tensions and successfully navigate the complex situation in Syria. https://lnkd.in/eDn6sc6Q

Via Chatham House: Russia’s economic dilemmas give Trump important leverage in negotiations on Ukraine. But will he use it? By David Lubin I 08.01.2025 Putin’s government considers inflation an existential threat. But Trump’s preoccupation with China may prevent the US exploiting Russian weakness. Chatham House published an article analyzing Russia's economic vulnerabilities stemming from the war in Ukraine. High inflation, driven by an overheated economy and decreased hard currency inflows, forces Russia to maintain exceptionally high interest rates. This economic weakness presents significant leverage for the incoming Trump administration to pressure Russia regarding the conflict, potentially through stronger sanctions or energy policies. However, Trump's focus on countering China might limit his willingness to exert this pressure, jeopardizing potential progress on resolving the Ukraine conflict. The article ultimately questions whether Trump will prioritize pressuring Russia or fostering closer ties with Moscow. https://lnkd.in/ecDaF2Dy

Via War on the Rock: The Mayhem of Russia’s “Research” Fleet By Nurlan Aliyev I 07.01.2025 Russia wields a formidable capability to target NATO’s undersea infrastructure in critical regions such as the Baltic, Barents, and North Seas, as well as across the world’s oceans: its “research” vessels. These are ostensibly civilian ships used for scientific exploration that double as intelligence-gathering platforms. Equipped with advanced surveillance technology, these ships often operate near critical undersea infrastructure, raising concerns about covert espionage and sabotage capabilities under the guise of academic study. Though this threat is making headlines in Europe today, it is far from new. Russia’s maritime research vessels operate under two key organizations, each with distinct but often overlapping roles. The Hydrographic Service of the Soviet Navy, once known as the Safety of Navigation Directorate, was renamed the Main Directorate of Navigation and Oceanography in 1972 and later became the Navigation and Oceanography Directorate in 2006. This organization is responsible for providing navigational, hydrographic, hydrometeorological, and topographic-geodetic support for Russia’s navy and armed forces in oceanic and maritime zones. However, the Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research, a highly secretive unit within the Russian Defense Ministry, also plays a pivotal role. Often regarded as one of the most elite and classified branches of the Russian military, it is reportedly under the direct control of the minister of defense. Its known tasks include deep-sea exploration of the seabed, studying human physiology under extreme underwater conditions, recovering equipment from sunken vessels or aircraft, and conducting rescue operations. This directorate is widely believed to oversee deep-sea sabotage and intelligence missions, adding a shadowy dimension to Russia’s maritime operations. https://lnkd.in/e9JjRs4W

Via the Atlantic: The new Rasputins A must read from Anne Applebaum

Mark Eyskens, a distinguished former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Belgium, presents a compelling analysis in his article, "From Maastricht to Cyberwar: Modernizing European Defense," published by the NATO Veterans Initiative (NAVI). In this insightful piece, Eyskens masterfully connects the historical context of the Treaty of Maastricht with the current need for a modernized, unified European defense strategy, particularly in light of the rise of cyber warfare and its implications for European security. He addresses the ethical challenges posed by technological advancements, the complex interplay between technology, security, and geopolitics, and the need for a common European defense budget. Furthermore, Eyskens discusses the potential for revitalizing the Western European Union (WEU) and strengthening existing EU defense institutions. His call for harmonized military capabilities, joint procurement, and increased cooperation underscores the urgency for a unified European approach to defense, making this article a call to action for strategic and collaborative defense policies in the face of evolving global threats. https://lnkd.in/efGXrEkm

Via GZero Media: 5 AI trends to watch in 2025 By Scott Nover | 07.01.2024 It’s impossible to predict what lies ahead for 2025, but one thing is clear: AI’s influence on policy, national security, and everyday life will only grow more profound as the technology continues to evolve rapidly and assert itself into our work, education, and social life.

Here we go..