I am a millennial. I don't use napkins (paper towels only), I love to travel, and I have kids (well, one kid, with another due in July). I also do not own a home, and I would like to talk about why.
Let's get the big reason out of the way: I decided to stay in New York City, which hasn't been affordable in many decades. My paycheck doesn't go very far here, and I accept that as a tradeoff for living in what I consider to be the best city in the country.
Still with me? OK, great. There's also something more structural at work, something we don't talk about often enough in mortgage/housing. This is a long post, buckle up.
🏘 Redfin today published a study that found empty-nester Baby Boomers own twice as many large homes (defined as 3+ bedrooms) as millennials with kids. This doesn't surprise me — my boomer parents each own a 4-bedroom home, and none of them have a mortgage. Theoretically, they have a lot of flexibility.
But that inventory isn't going to hit anytime soon.
"The problem for younger families who wish their parents’ generation would list their big homes: Boomers don’t have much motivation to sell, financially or otherwise," said Sheharyar Bokhari, a senior economist at Redfin. "They typically have low housing costs, and the bulk of boomers are only in their 60s, still young enough that they can take care of themselves and their home without help."
👨👩👦 We also have to address the other side of that coin: people wildly underestimate how expensive it is to raise kids.
Have you seen the Dave Ramsey video where he shames a Philadelphia dad for paying $80,000 a year on child care costs? That includes two kids in daycare, plus early and after-care, plus summer care.
Ramsey goes ballistic.
“You guys have lost your minds," he shouts. "I mean, are they going to Harvard? What the crap? They’re not even in school, and you’re already paying $25,000 a head. Come on, dude. That’s just dumber than crap. I don’t care how much money you make. There’s not enough money in the world that doesn’t make that stupid.”
But what Dave in Philadelphia describes is not unusual. My son's daycare in Brooklyn costs more than $2,000 a month, and it's actually a bargain in this neighborhood. More than half of U.S. parents say they spend over 27% of their household income on child care expenses, according to the Care[.com] 2023 Cost of Care Survey.
With difficult prospects in finding/affording a home for a growing family (limited inventory - the boomers have it) and the surging costs of raising a family, it's no wonder the U.S. birth rate has declined 30% in 15 years.
Final thought here: There are lots of conversations about lowering PMI, preventing institutional investors from buying single-family homes (lol), bringing back SALT deductions, but it's nibbling at the edges. As a society, I think we need to 1) build more homes; 2) make it easier for millennials/Gen Z to raise kids. Subsidizing daycare would be a great start.