Pacific Forum

🌎 At Pacific Forum, our team of knowledgeable specialists in defense, economics, cybersecurity, and political affairs in the Indo-Pacific region are well-equipped to provide expert analysis that enriches media discourse and coverage. 🗞 If you're a journalist seeking an insightful source or commentary on critical regional issues, please reach out. 📩 Contact our media team at shanna@pacforum.org to get started. #Journalists #Media #News #IndoPacific #AsiaPacific #ForeignAffairs #InternationalRelations #ForeignPolicy #Geopolitics #Security #Defense

Thrilled to share my latest co-authored piece with Don McLain Gill for the Observer Research Foundation Online: “Manila’s Security Dilemma: Navigating US Commitments and China’s Aggression”. The Philippines stands at a critical juncture in the Indo-Pacific, balancing its historic alliance with the U.S. against China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea. Our analysis unpacks Manila’s strategic choices and the ripple effects for regional stability. Key insights from the op-ed: 🔹 The Double-Edged Sword of Alliances: While U.S. security guarantees offer deterrence, over-reliance risks entanglement in great-power rivalries. How can Manila assert agency without alienating partners? 🔹 China’s Gray-Zone Tactics: From maritime militia to economic coercion, Beijing’s incremental aggression tests Manila’s resolve. We explore counter-strategies rooted in ASEAN solidarity and legal frameworks. 🔹 The Domestic Dimension: Public sentiment in the Philippines—shaped by economic pragmatism and national pride—adds complexity to President Marcos Jr.’s balancing act. This piece is especially timely as regional tensions escalate and Manila strengthens defense ties with Washington. The stakes? Nothing less than the future of a rules-based maritime order in Asia. Grateful to my brilliant co-author Don for the collaboration, and to ORF Online for amplifying critical voices in geopolitics. Let’s keep the conversation going—how can small and middle powers like the Philippines carve out strategic autonomy in an era of polarization? 📖 Read the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/gshJcSKR CC: Oxford Global Society, Indo Pacific Circle, Pacific Forum, United States Studies Centre, Indo-Pacific Studies Center, Asha Clementi, YCAPS, Verve Research, Jeffrey Ordaniel, #Geopolitics #IndoPacific #MaritimeSecurity #ForeignPolicy #ASEAN #Philippines #SouthChinaSea

🌾 Quoted in Reuters on U.S.-China trade tensions Thrilled to contribute insights to Reuters journalist Mei Mei Chu 朱美风 on the evolving U.S.-China trade dynamic and its critical implications for American agriculture. The stakes for American agriculture are higher than ever as China signals retaliatory measures against new U.S. tariffs. My key takeaways (as quoted): "Despite a decline in imports since 2018, any tariffs on key U.S. agricultural products like soybeans, meat and grains could have a significant impact on U.S.-China trade as well as U.S. exporters and farmers," said Genevieve Donnellon-May, a researcher at the Oxford Global Society and Indo-Pacific Studies Center. "The U.S. agricultural sector has had time to prepare for a second Trump administration and trade war 2.0, with lessons learned from the first Trump administration," she added. "So, in theory, it should be in a better place to find alternative markets. However, the reality may prove far more complex." Here’s why this matters: ⚔️ China’s state-backed Global Times reports plans for tariffs and non-tariff measures targeting U.S. agricultural exports, including soybeans, meat, and grains. 🌾 Soymeal futures surged 2.5% in China amid fears of supply disruptions, reflecting immediate market volatility. 📉 U.S. agri-exports to China fell 14% in 2024 (following a 20% drop in 2023), underscoring shifting trade dynamics. 🌍 Brazil’s share of China’s agri-imports now rivals the U.S., highlighting global competition. The Bigger picture: Trade tensions are more than headlines—they’re about livelihoods. While diversification and strategic stockpiling have strengthened resilience since 2018, sustained tariffs could disrupt supply chains, inflate costs, and reshape global and regional agri-trade flows. Timing is critical: New tariffs coincide with China’s annual parliamentary meeting, where economic priorities for 2025 will be set. CC: Pacific Forum, YCAPS, Indo Pacific Circle, United States Studies Centre, Jufang Wang, Asha Clementi, Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, Modern Diplomacy, The Red Line Podcast, Michael Hilliard, Verve Research, Eamonn Fitzpatrick Grateful to Reuters for spotlighting this issue. The full article is linked below—essential reading for those navigating turbulent U.S.-China waters. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/g2BDciz7 #USChinaTrade #Agriculture #GeopoliticalRisk #TradePolicy #GlobalEconomy #SupplyChain #Farmers

Très heureux de cette nouvelle collaboration entre #Diplomatie magazine et le Pacific Forum grâce à Tran Thi Mong Tuyen qui publiait en décembre dernier le texte « Taïwan : vers une escalade militaire ? » et qui le propose désormais en version anglaise et actualisée sur le site du Pacific Forum (accessible ci-dessous 👇) It's a great honor for #Diplomatie magazine and the Pacific Forum to be working together again. Thanks to Tran Thi Mong Tuyen, who last December published the article "#Taiwan : towards a military escalation ? " and is now offering an updated English version on the Pacific Forum website (below 👇) #géopolitique #indopacifique #indopacific #geopolitics #stratégie #strategy #veille #risk #foreignaffairs #Asiapacific #prospective #Asie #défense #sécurité #Taiwan #Chine David Santoro Shanna Khayat Rob York Marianne Peron-Doise

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Meeting with Trump gave Japan's PM Shigeru Ishiba "face" following his party's poor showing in recent parliamentary elections, raising his political image. At the meeting, the US and Japan agreed that China is their most intractable strategic rival in the Indo-Pacific. Pacific Forum University of Mary Washington https://lnkd.in/e-zhmPpp

🌍 #NorthKorea: Still a Threat or Fading into Irrelevance? While #globalcrises dominate the news, Carl Baker, Executive Director at #PacificForum, joined Jay Fidell on Think Tech Hawaii to discuss why North Korea remains a critical player in #globalsecurity. 📌 What’s happening in #Pyongyang today? 📌 How does #SouthKorea’s political turmoil impact the region? 📌 What role does #China play in North Korea’s future? 📌 Is #Trump paying attention to #KimJong-un? 📺 Watch the full conversation to get expert insights: https://lnkd.in/gvQSnuvE

🔎 #Trump 2.0: What Can #Asia Expect? At the upcoming OffshoreAlert Bangkok 2025, Stephen Olson, #PacificForum senior adjunct fellow and expert in #internationaltrade and #economicpolicy, will join Danny Ong, Founder and Managing Director of Setia Law LLC, and Pamela Qiu, Partner at Control Risks, to analyze the potential impact of a second Trump administration on Asia. 📅 March 5-6, 2025 📍 Siam Kempinski Hotel, Bangkok From trade policies and economic shifts to geopolitical challenges, this session will provide essential insights for businesses and policymakers navigating the evolving global landscape. 🔗 Register now: https://lnkd.in/geauSM-a

🔎 "#China’s ambitions aren’t subtle." At the #HonoluluDefenseForum, Adm. Samuel Paparo, Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, issued a serious warning: The #CCP is showing "clear intent and capability" to attack #Taiwan. In a new article for Newsmax Media, Inc., Richard Torrenzano examines how China’s recent simulated air and #seablockade of Taiwan, coupled with growing #military actions in the #SouthChinaSea and #Baltic, signal increasing security threats. With subsea infrastructure at risk and #globalstability at stake, what steps must the #US and its allies take to counter these challenges? 📖 Read the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/gKtfTEGj #PacificForum

BHM Feature: Angelo M'BA 文安哲, EU Windows Scholar at Zhejiang University, President of European Guanxi, Schwarzman Scholars (Class of 2026) Angelo is an incoming Schwarzman Scholar at Tsinghua University and an Oxford graduate specialising in Chinese foreign policy, Indo-Pacific geopolitics, and international cooperation. In an era marked by rising geopolitical tensions and pernicious rhetoric, he is preparing himself for a career focused on advancing global cooperation and fostering nuanced dialogue through thorough policy analysis and research. As President of European Guanxi, Europe’s largest youth-led Europe-China think tank, Angelo is spearheading high-quality events, podcast episodes, and research initiatives aimed at refining our understanding of China and Sino-European relations. He has lectured on cross-Strait relations and Indo-Pacific security, and his geopolitical analyses have appeared on outlets such as Pacific Forum, where he is a Young Leader. About European Guanxi: European Guanxi is a network of young European professionals, scholars and students who will impact the dynamics of Europe-China relationship. This mission echoes a commitment to connecting young people in the domain of Sino-European relations, providing them an avenue to express themselves and share their ideas. In this regard, European Guanxi provides a broader platform for growth through debate, discussion, and analysis of Europe-China relations. Our values centre around mutual understanding, trust, and cooperation and we strive towards a future where these values define Europe-China relations. Join us as we celebrate Angelo and our friends and partners at European Guanxi!