SovEcon

From January 1 to January 15, Ukraine exported 1.4 million metric tons (mmt) of grain, compared to 2.1 mmt a year ago, according to data from the country’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy. Russia’s National Commodity Exchange (NCE) will resume grain sales from the intervention fund on January 27, the NTB press service announced. SovEcon expects Russian wheat exports in January to amount to between 1.8 and 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), down from 3.6 MMT a year earlier. Ukrainian wheat exports for the same period are estimated at 0.8 MMT, down from 1.6 MMT last year. Wheat exports from the Black Sea region have slowed due to lower supply. Check out our daily digest for more news insights: https://lnkd.in/dsK3KCKY

End users will soon have no choice but to purchase US wheat.

Russian #wheat exports are plummeting. Is it a case of “no demand” or tightening supply? My bet is on the latter. 👉 Get the full breakdown in our upcoming trade and S&D report: https://lnkd.in/d5hzSbcn #oatt #sizovreport 

Brazil’s Conab agency lowered its estimate for corn production to 119.55 million metric tons (mmt) from 119.63 mmt a month earlier. The Brazilian association ANEC estimated Brazil’s corn exports in January at 2.98 mmt, 0.8 mmt higher than the previous forecast. Jordan purchased approximately 60,000 mt of wheat in an international tender at $267/mt C&F, traders reported. Check out our daily digest for more news insights: https://lnkd.in/gmgC8QbY

Bloomberg: Trump’s team is discussing slowly ramping up tariffs month by month, a gradual approach aimed at boosting negotiating leverage while helping avoid a spike in inflation, according to people familiar with the matter. One idea involves a schedule of graduated tariffs increasing by about 2% to 5% a month, and would rely on executive authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the people said. #dxy #oatt #wheat https://lnkd.in/dqBPhZ7a

A heatwave in Argentina over the next few days could impact corn and soybean yields, meteorologist German Heinzenknecht said. He noted that hot and dry conditions will persist until Friday, after which rains are expected. On Sunday, 80 mm of rain fell in Brazil’s Minas Gerais state, triggering landslides, local authorities reported. The state produces about 7% of the country’s corn output. Egypt’s wheat imports in 2024 totaled 14.2 million metric tons (mmt), up from 10.8 mmt the previous year, according to Asharq Business. This marks the highest import level in the past 10 years. Check out our daily digest for more news insights: https://lnkd.in/d4r-9sZd

Russia & Global #grain market weekly, Jan 06-10, 2025: * #Wheat Mixed Globally, #Corn Rallies * January Russian Wheat Exports May Hit Lowest Level Since 2017 * Wheat Flat in Rubles * Weather Remains Abnormally Warm More: https://lnkd.in/dBmX-WXX #oatt #sizovreport #blacksea

Corn prices were supported by the WASDE report. The USDA lowered its forecast for U.S. corn ending stocks for 2024/25 to 39.1 million mt, down 5.0 million mt from the December estimate and 3.4 million mt below market expectations. Global corn stocks are projected at 293.3 million mt, down 3.1 million mt month-over-month and 1.5 million mt below market estimates. U.S. wheat ending stocks were slightly increased to 21.7 million mt (+0.1 million mt month-over-month; in line with market expectations), while global wheat stocks are now forecast at 258.8 million mt (+0.9 million mt month-over-month; +1.0 million mt above market expectations). The Biden administration is expected to release a new funding model for sustainable fuel next week, which may exclude ethanol, Reuters reported, citing sources. Under the new framework, foreign ethanol producers would no longer qualify for tax credits designed for clean fuel producers. This is likely to impact the volume of used cooking oil imported into the U.S. Amid these restrictions, soybean oil prices have risen 15% week-over-week. Afghanistan became the largest importer of Russian flour last year, doubling its purchases, according to the agricultural agency Agroexport. Check out our daily digest for more news insights: https://lnkd.in/du5E7H9V

On January 10, the USDA will release the January revision of its WASDE report. According to market estimates, U.S. ending wheat stocks are expected at 21.6 million mt (+0.1 million mt from last month), and corn stocks at 44.1 million mt (-1.6 million mt). Global wheat stocks are forecast to remain at 257.9 million mt, while global corn stocks are projected to decrease by 1.6 million mt to 296.4 million mt. The share of Argentine corn crops in poor condition rose to 9%, up from 4% the previous week and 5% a year earlier, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Analysts attribute the deterioration to insufficient rainfall. The Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) announced that Kazakhstan lifted its ban on wheat imports from third countries and EAEU nations effective January 1, 2025. Check out our daily digest for more news insights: https://lnkd.in/dMhgKaFm

🌾 #Wheat is approaching the contract low/support around $5.30. Will it hold here or head further down to $5.20 → $5.00? #oatt #sizovreport