The Washington Institute For Near East Policy

Turkey might be on the cusp of a historic announcement by Abdullah Ocalan, jailed leader of the PKK. What are the deal’s chances for success, and what implications might it hold? In part one, Institute expert Soner Cagaptay analyzes the Kurdish angles in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq: https://lnkd.in/e6sXBT3Z In part two, Soner Cagaptay focuses on broader U.S. and Turkish policy considerations: https://lnkd.in/e6sXBT3Z

On February 13, the Institute held a webcast consisting of two separate, sequential video conversation. In the first panel, Makram Rabah explained why Lebanon is at a critical juncture. Summary of remarks: https://lnkd.in/gt9cvwb3

On February 13, the Institute held a webcast consisting of two separate, sequential video conversation. In the second panel, Efraim Defrin explained that the Israeli political leadership identified three obstacles to a permanent ceasefire in Lebanon. Summary of remarks: https://lnkd.in/gt9cvwb3

My ship observation: Sanctioned Russia-linked oil tanker PROXIMA (IMO 9329655) is signaling for Syria's Baniyas (SY BAN), data from MarineTraffic shows. The tanker could be carrying diesel. Based on current AIS data, the vessel is expected at Baniyas in March. AIS data can change, but for now it's very clear (will update if it changes). PROXIMA that was earlier at Russian ports, including Primorsk, is on OFAC's list of sanctions, linked to (UAE-based) Fornax Ship Management FZCO- reportedly supports Russia's sanctioned Sovcomflot. Damascus under a new authority needs fuel, and the question now is who will provide it amid ongoing high risks. The few LPG cargoes originating now from Turkey's Dortyol to Baniyas were already taking place before Assad's fall (I tracked them in the past years and my work is out there). More on this soon in an upcoming work. #Shipping #Syria #Russia #Sanctions #Oil

"The budding relationship with Damascus gives Turkey great influence over the new government, but how will Syria’s new leaders react to this influence as time goes on?" ask Aaron Y. Zelin, Ph.D. and Soner Cagaptay.

On February 13, the Institute held a webcast consisting of two separate, sequential video conversation. Assaf Orion explained how policymakers in Lebanon and Israel see great potential for collaboration on security goals. Read a summary of his remarks: https://lnkd.in/gt9cvwb3

On February 13, the Institute’s managing director Michael Singh testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on U.S. policy post-Assad. In his testimony, he said that putting #Syria on a better path may be a daunting challenge, but it is also an opportunity for Syrians, the #MiddleEast, the #West, and the #UnitedStates. Watch the latest episode of The Syria Breakdown: https://lnkd.in/e3ZmBGaQ

On February 13, the Institute’s director of research Dana Stroul testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on U.S. policy post-Assad.   In her #testimony, she explained that events on the ground and international engagement with the new leadership in #Syria are outpacing U.S. policy, and that #America needs update its approach. Watch the latest episode of The Syria Breakdown: https://lnkd.in/eKzQ2viG

Earlier this week, I moderated this timely The Washington Institute For Near East Policy discussion Year 4 of Russia's War in Ukraine, and its impacts on the Middle East with Anna Borshchevskaya Javier Colomina Riad Kahwaji A new phase has opened in the U.S. approach to the Russia-Ukraine war, and it marks a sharp turn away from the past 3 years: no longer is coordination with allies and partners the first priority, and the optics of Ukraine's absence of the negotiating table is noteworthy. Leaders in the Middle East have to be looking at this resetting of the table and feeling vindicated in their commitment to balancing between Russia and the U.S.-led coalition for the past 3 years, but also concerned about what it means for the U.S. approach to major challenges inside the region such as Iran. Panel members agreed on the cross-theater connections of Russia's war in Ukraine, from Iranian drones to North Korean shock troops to food security to energy markets to sanctions. What does not take place in the Middle East absolutely affects the security of the Middle East. The settlement terms of this war will have impact far beyond Europe, and send signs to both would-be aggressors and potential victims in other theaters.

Two summits could hold the key to an Arab postwar Gaza strategy that supplements the traditional “two-state” mantra with concrete plans, write Institute experts David Schenker and Ghaith al-Omari.