Visual Approach Analytics

We know why Boeing is not hitting narrowbody delivery targets, but what about Airbus? Our newsletter from last week dives into the narrowbody delivery challenges that have characterized 2024. Boeing is behind. The Seattle OEM still faces the 38 aircraft-per-month production cap... oh, and that little strike thing when builders of the 737 stopped building 737s. Old news. However, Airbus is facing challenges of its own. A320 family production largely follows 2023 numbers, a level promised to be well in the rear-view mirror by now. As December approaches, the typical wave of deliveries is expected to materialize once again. Yet, year-over-year comparisons matter. 2023 saw a 62% increase in December deliveries over October and November. That's quite the bar to pass for 2024, especially when the expectation was for Airbus to be well clear of it by now. We've been a bit lax in posting new content to LinkedIn. Between speaking engagements and a no-we're-not-actually-complaining level of client work, not even weekends have been safe havens for editing podcasts and creating analysis for LinkedIn. But fear not, for the free stuff still floweth, just a little later than usual.

It was a pleasure to chat with Casey Smith about the airline industry on the A Wiser Retirement podcast. Things were said. Laughter was had. We talk about seniority list movement, pilot training, Boeing's challenges, and where the industry is headed. It's long-form, and we get into the details. You can find the information to listen or watch here: https://lnkd.in/gCbVj9rr

Canadian growth is stumbling, and Air Transat appears to be taking the brunt. Our latest Market Insight looks into Air Transat and how the airline's challenges are part of a broader downturn. We discuss Air Transat's debt obligations, competitive positioning, and how macro factors have affected long-term growth (or lack thereof). Subscribers can access the latest analysis here: https://lnkd.in/geZY3m6u

Is American's decision to shrink traditional sales channels coming back to haunt them? The data suggests so. Our latest weekly newsletter looks at the difference between Delta's $1.3 billion net profit and American's $345 million net loss. We attempt to reconcile the gap by normalizing for network size, looking at values on a per ASM basis. The red you see on this chart represents an advantage for Delta. The gray, advantage for American. There's more red than gray - particularly in the revenue department. One of the places there is more gray than red? In the sales distribution department. Are American's distribution costs lower because revenue is lower, or is revenue lower because distribution is being ignored? You can read the entire analysis here: https://lnkd.in/ghazWm3W

The landscape is changing for China's domestic lessors. What does it mean for the rest of the world? Published last Friday, our premium Market Insight looked at the Chinese lessors and how things have changed. Once an aggressively growing cohort, the domestic lessors are facing some unique challenges. But, one lessor's challenge is another lessor's opportunity. This analysis dives into how the space has changed, where the attention of China's lessors may be in the future, and what opportunities it may open for Western lessors. Subscribers can view this analysis here: https://lnkd.in/gYNVfC65

Spirit was supposed to file Chapter 11 this month, then didn't. What happened? Our latest newsletter dives into the mechanics of Spirit's situation, why bankruptcy is a threat, and why it didn't already happen. There is certainly no shortage of opinions about Spirit and its chances for a Chapter 11 filing. Spirit isn't profitable, but welcome to aviation. Why is there talk of a Spirit filing now? Some say a broken business model. Some say debt payments. Not wrong, per se, but not the reason for the deadlines today. It's the credit card companies. It's complicated, but we try to make sense of the past few weeks in our weekly newsletter. The credit card companies are currently holding a gun to Spirit's head because they don't want to get stuck holding the bag when bondholders come to collect. The bondholders are on the way with a cannon. Read the analysis here: https://lnkd.in/gk4hTjUJ

Aircraft values are through the roof during the shortage but still suppressed. How can that be? Our latest market insight looks at how aircraft values are being affected by market conditions beyond supply and demand. High interest rates and hanging maintenance risk are keeping already high aircraft values from being even higher. This is a concept painstakingly explained to me over hours of discussion with Gueric Dechavanne. The model used in the analysis was subsequently named "why-gueric-is-right.xlsx" Subscribers can access the latest analysis here: https://lnkd.in/gisbdfNW

New engines, new trends. Longer-ranged narrowbody aircraft are having an effect on age-old maintenance models. The industry is exiting a period of incredible engine reliability, driven primarily by cycles. As a result, cycle-driven maintenance costs have strengthened the incentive to operate aircraft on longer flights. These trends are changing with new engines. Our latest market insight looks into how this is happening and what it may mean as aircraft such as the A321XLR stay higher for longer. Subscribers can read the analysis here: https://lnkd.in/gKw-cD_t