World Steel Dynamics

WSD is launching the Free Trial for our USA Steel Dynamics Service on March 4th. The free trial includes: Bi-Monthly Forecasting and Analysis Reports; Bi-Weekly Industry News; and Bi-Monthly steel product pricing. To register for your free trial, https://lnkd.in/ezXaHYd8

• Throughout the election cycle, “strengthened borders” had ranked near the top of voters’ priority list, often right below the economy.  As we begin the Trump Presidency sequel, it is clear that the incoming administration is planning to wield tariffs as a critical negotiating tool. The possibility of tariffs on “ALL” products coming from Mexico and the Canada throws a series of wild cards into the mix.   • On one hand, there is the near-term risk of a rapid surge in imports as buyers rush to purchase and receive material from Canadian mills in advance of a tariff being implemented; given prevailing lead times (still only 5-6 weeks), this could still be possible and orders placed in the next 2-3 weeks could likely be fulfilled before inauguration.  Should this situation unfold and there is a sudden surge of imports in the first few weeks of January, pricing in the U.S. could temporarily decline, likely below the recent low-water mark of $650/ton for hot-rolled coil (HRC).     • In the longer term, if imports are taxed at 25%, WSD foresees a possibility of an ensuing inflationary event. The 11+ million net tons of steel imported into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada accounts for more than 10% of steel consumed in the United States, and the immediate levy of a 25% tax would be undoubtedly inflationary for the U.S. market.   • Furthermore, there is the issue of imported scrap. In 2023, the USA imported nearly 2 million tons of shredded and prime scrap from Canada with 4.7 million tons of scrap imports in total. Supply-demand dynamics for scrap (particularly premium grades) are already in the process of tightening with the opening of three new EAFs in the USA/Canada over the next six months: U.S. Steel’s BRS-II facility, ArcelorMittal’s Calvert facility, and Algoma’s new EAF. An additional 25% cost for a sizeable portion of the scrap market supply (from the viewpoint of USA sheet mills) is material.   • Taken together, the wild card effect on a 25% “All products tariff” is widely viewed as a potential price-floor raising event for USA HRC prices in the coming months. However, for the time being, WSD views this as a negotiating tactic that will not result in a long-term change in U.S. trade policy. Source:  WSD’s USA Steel Dynamics Service Stay up to date on the USA steel market but signing up for a free 3-month trial ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eV7viGKA USA Steel Dynamics provides an extensive data, analytics, forecasting and industry news service that seeks to provide a comprehensive outlook of the USA steel sheet market on a near and long-term basis With our reports, industry news, pricing and data package, you will have access to first-hand insights into the factors driving USA steel demand, supply, pricing dynamics, and industry profitability. #usasteel #usasteeloutlook #usasteeldemandforecast #hrcprice #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

Test your Steel Decarbonization Knowledge Thank you to everyone who participates in our “Test your Steel Decarbonization Knowledge" series. Our next question relates to Methane Emissions.   You can find the answer here, https://lnkd.in/d9sS42qM Source: WSD Steel Decarbonization Dynamics Service SDDS is a comprehensive information package focused on the global steel industry’s decarbonization challenge that consists of analyses, forecasts and customizable models with an outlook to 2030, 2040 and beyond. For more information, https://lnkd.in/eV7viGKA #steeldecarbonization #greensteel #decarbonizationforecast #steelemissions #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

• For months leading up to the election, steel buyers were “sitting on their hands” amidst election-related uncertainty. During that period, steel demand in the United States has remained subdued, import volumes have stabilized at levels 13% above Q4 2023 volumes, and mill production has been largely unchanged (except for the idling of a BF at Cliffs’ Cleveland works).    • The key takeaway from the market over the last three weeks since the election has been that little has changed with respect to buyers’ intentions in the immediate term. Unlike the stock market, there is no “splash” in the HRC market amidst a “rush to buy” post-election. WSD expects that the market will remain consistent, with HRC prices in the $670-700/ton price range through the end of the year.    • WSD is optimistic about the demand outlook for 2025, and a shift toward bolstering inventories paired with a gradual increase in domestic end-user consumption could support price upside during Q1-Q2 2025. Assuming there is no “rush” to book significant tons from Canada in advance of the tariffs, WSD forecasts that prices could rise $30-50/ton in January and February, with price upside to $800/ton by the end of Q1 should the 25% tariffs be implemented given the engrained nature of Canadian/Mexican sheet imports for the U.S. supply chain. In other words, any increase in tariffs would only further support the upside for U.S. HRC prices.   Source: WSD’s USA Steel Dynamics Service Stay up to date on the USA steel market but signing up for a free 3-month trial ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eV7viGKA USA Steel Dynamics provides an extensive data, analytics, forecasting and industry news service that seeks to provide a comprehensive outlook of the USA steel sheet market on a near and long-term basis. With our reports, industry news, pricing and data package, you will have access to first-hand insights into the factors driving USA steel demand, supply, pricing dynamics, and industry profitability. #usasteel #usasteeloutlook #usasteeldemandforecast #hrcprice #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

On Monday, Nucor held its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) steady at $750 per ton, and as of this writing (Nov 18 early PM), Cleveland-Cliffs market base price for HRC was also mired at $750/ton—where it has been since October 30.    Meanwhile, most independent price reporting agencies have seen little change in their transactional assessments of the market, hovering around $700/net ton. A few buyers canvassed by WSD report prices as low as $690/net ton for “sizeable” orders, but more pointed to spot buys above $720/net ton for around 500 tons. Lead times are said to be five to-seven weeks, and Cliffs has reportedly closed its December order book. Other mills have already reported taking January orders.    In recent days, a poll conducted by WSD attempted to answer that question. Specifically: “Looking ahead to Q1 2025, where do you expect the spot price of USA hot-rolled coil (HRC) to be?”    • Only 15% of respondents opted for “below $725/net ton”.  • 31% of respondents indicated HRC spot prices would be between $726-$775/ton.  • Another 31% of respondents thought they would be even higher—at $776-$825/ton.  • Almost a quarter of the 101 respondents (23%) were even more bullish in predicting $826-$875/ton.   WSD Take:  WSD can sense post-election excitement; however, it has yet to cause buyers to spring into action in mid-November. According to our market poll, 85% of respondents believe that Q1 prices will be above current (~$700/ton) market spot levels.    The CME Futures Curve for HRC reflects a similar sentiment with futures prices for January 2025 settling at $752 per ton and rising to $794/ton in February and $804 per ton in March. Despite new capacity entering the market as Big River II begins to ramp up, WSD believes that lower sheet import volumes, light inventories, and improved demand conditions are expected to balance out new supply and support higher prices during the first quarter.   Don’t forget to sign up for a free three month trial to gain access to demand price forecast data out to xx updated on a monthly basis and Industry News delivered twice per week ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eV7viGKA   #usasteeldemandforecast #usasteelpriceforecast #usasteelmarketoutlook #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

Poll results and insights are published as part of World Steel Dynamics' USA Steel Dynamics News Service. Featuring in-depth analyses for the USA steel market, this engaging information service provides forecasting, data and news content. Catch up on previous polls and much more; visit: https://lnkd.in/ezXaHYd8 for a free trial. #steelindustry #steelinventory #hotrolledcoil #steelmarket  #steelmaking #steelsupplier #steelmills #steeldistributors #steelprices #steelservicecenters #steelsupply #steeldemand 

Global Steel Outlook   WSD’s Philipp Englin, CEO, recently presented to the delegates attending the OCTG & Line Pipe Forecasting Summit that took place in Houston.   You can listen to Phil’s presentation where he discussed the following topics ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dp7U6Yin   • “Chinese “Export Armada” re-amasses fleet Global HRC price “Death-Spiral”……” ……Revisited • What really drives global steel prices? • EU price waterfall analysis • Steel Consumption in China’s major downstream industries – 2025 • WSD’s World Steel Price Rollercoaster • And more . . .   To request the full presentation or a sample report ➡️ https://lnkd.in/edwxMVPQ   Source:  World Steel Dynamics WSD publishes in-depth reports focused on market analysis, supply and demand trends, price forecasts, economic activity levels, and strategic industry developments on a monthly basis. You can now get access to Product-Level Forecast data (2040)for over 40 countries including: • Production • Imports • Exports • Apparent Consumption   Products include: • Semifinished • Long Products: Wire Rod & Wire; Bar (Merchant Bar, Rebar); Structurals • Flat Products: Plate (heavy, medium); Sheet (Hot rolled, Cold rolled, Tinplate, Galvanized, Other coated) • Other Products: Railway materials, Tube & pipe, Seamless, Welded, Other   #globalsteelmarketoutlook #steeloutlook #chinasteeloutlook #eusteeloutlook #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

Registration is Open WSD is pleased to announce that the 2025 Global Steel Dynamics Forum will take place June 17th and 18th 2025 in New York City.   Register today and join over 600 attendees at the premier global steel conference of the year.    The two-day 2025 Global Steel Dynamics Forum will be headlined by senior executives and experts across the global steel supply chain. You will hear leading CEOs share their vision and strategies for their companies and the global steel industry, while experts will share market outlooks and forecasts.   Check out the recap of the 2024 conference ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dqX4FPD9   Looking forward to seeing you in New York!   #globalsteeloutlook #globalsteelconference #globalsteelforum #steelexecutives #aist #wsd #worldsteeldynamics #globalsteeldynamicsforum

It has been a bumpy ride since 2021; however, the rollercoaster appears to have lost its momentum in 2024.   Restocking Rollercoaster • With each successive re-stocking cycle since Covid, the price ceiling has lowered. • Meanwhile, the pricing floor during this period has been on a slow and steady rise. • As interest rates continue to get cut, WSD expects some re-normalization of inventory strategy, where “hand-to-mouth” steel management becomes increasingly less common • As additional capacity gets added in the next two years, the market (at times) will trend closer to oversupply, reducing some of the mills’ pricing power until existing capacity is optimized sufficiently.