AGBI - Arabian Gulf Business Insight’s Post

Moldova’s central bank cuts policy rate by 50bp #bne #bneEditorsPicks #Moldova #monetarypolicy #bneChart Moldova’s central bank, the National Bank of Moldova (BNM), on March 21 cut the monetary policy rate (chart) by 50 basis points (bp) to 3.75% in the second such move this year, bringing the rate below the headline inflation rate (4.3% y/y in February) and close to the lower limit of the target band (5% +/-1.5pp ). It is a doveish policy that the monetary authority admits as such and explains it as aimed at “stimulating aggregate demand, including by encouraging consumption and investments, balancing the national economy and anchoring inflationary expectations”.

🇳🇴 Commenting on Norges Bank’s rate desicion to Bloomberg this morning: Norges Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% and maintained guidance of rates being kept at this level for some time ahead. One one hand, inflation is declining faster than Norges Bank predicted - indeed, inflation has consistently suprised the bank on the downside since mid 2023. Unemployment is low but edged a little higher and rates abroad are lower. On the other hand - the weak NOK. And as expected, Norges Bank chose to change their guidance very little, balancing the two sides, despite acknowledging that the NOK is mainly driven by external factors. We expect inflation to continue lower and see considerably better inflation prospects in 2025. With this, and other central banks cutting, the pressure on Norges Bank to cut earlier than indicated (March 2025) increases. We believe Norges Bank will cut the policy rate in December, and they might open up for softer guidance already in September. Read more in Marthe Enger Eide and my Review: https://lnkd.in/dn-eprQu #NorgesBank #NOK

Russia’s CBR ups key interest rate by whopping 200bp to 18%, raises GDP growth forecast to 3.5% for 2024 #bne #bneEditorsPicks #bneChart #Russia #monetarypolicy The board of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) increased the key interest rate by 2 percentage points from 16% to 18%, in line with consensus expectations, at the policy meeting on July 26. This marks the first rate hike since December 2023, when the CBR hiked the rate from 15% to 16%. As followed by bne IntelliNews, the CBR's board at the last June 7 policy meeting also resolved to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 16%, making a neutral rate decision for the fourth consecutive time. (chart)

https://lnkd.in/gRmSd9PF ANKARA — Turkey’s Central Bank, in a unexpected move, hiked interest rates Thursday by another 500 basis points, from 45% to 50%. The monetary policy committee cited a “higher than expected” surge in the country’s year-on-year inflation last month, which hit almost 70%. The embattled Turkish lira strengthened immediately after the surprise announcement, trading more than 1% up on the day at 14:30 p.m. local time. “Recent indicators imply that domestic demand remains resilient,” the bank said in a statement. A Reuters poll released earlier this week predicted that the bank would hold rates at 45% after it announced in January that it was pausing a dramatic rate-hike run for eight successive months, from June to January. Erdogan has been a staunch opponent of high interest rates. Ahead of the May general elections, the bank, under his influence, had kept interest rates as low as 8.5%. As part of the Turkish leader’s U-turn toward economic orthodoxy, the central bank, under new management appointed after the election, pledged to return to the traditional economic policy of raising interest rates to tame high inflation.

CBN raises interest rate to 27.5 % The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) yesterday raised the benchmark interest rate, th e Monetary Policy Rate, MPR, to 27.50 per cent from 27.25 per cent.

The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) and Qatar Central Bank (QCB) have decided to keep their interest rates unchanged, following the US Federal Reserve’s recent move to maintain its benchmark lending rate. This decision marks the seventh consecutive time the Fed has held rates steady, keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% – 5.50%. https://bit.ly/3VFE7cm

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) is set to convene on Thursday to evaluate pivotal interest rates, amidst a backdrop of significant global and domestic economic developments, with a sharp focus on inflation trends. Thursday’s meeting marks the third gathering of the MPC in 2024, also serving as the final session of the current fiscal year 2023/2024, concluding on June 30. Anticipation surrounds the likelihood of the committee maintaining the existing interest rates, given the cooling inflation. Hany Abou-El-Fotouh, a banking expert and CEO of Alraya Consulting, anticipates the CBE’s decision to uphold current interest rates, citing the recent trajectory of inflation rates, particularly evident in the past two months. By Doaa A.Moneim https://lnkd.in/dSbtgJdQ

Against market expectations, the CBN hiked rates...Proshare analyst share history of rate decision dynamics across the era of about 4 past Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governors and reactions following hikes, cut or hold decisions in over a decade...rates have largely failed to curb inflation... Thr analysts belive that stability discuss must be moved from inflation targeting and exchange rate unification to issues that will ultimately curb inflation and retore lasting stability and growth in Nigeria as outlined in the commentary...

Turkey dazzles market with additional 500bp rate hike to 50% #bne #bneEditorsPicks #bneChart #Turkey #monetarypolicy The monetary policy committee (MPC) of Turkey’s central bank on March 21 surprised the market by hiking its policy rate (one-week repo rate) by 500bp to 50%. The market had expected the committee to stick with 45% as the headline rate (chart). Additionally, the authority hiked the spread over the policy rate in its overnight lending channel to 300bp from the previous 150bp.

Turkey's central bank is expected to leave interest rates at 45% today, but with inflation thrashing towards 70% again and the lira crashing another 9% this year, there is an argument for another hefty hike in Turkey - but will they? https://lnkd.in/dKbcn--F