AgMarket.Net®’s Post

CBOT corn futures climb with flooding impacting Brazil crop CHICAGO, May 2 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures turned higher on Thursday with severe flooding affecting corn and soy producing areas of Brazil, analysts said. Most-active CBOT July corn CN24 settled up 9 cents at $4.59-3/4 per bushel after reaching a session high of$4.60-1/2, the contract's peak since Feb. 7. Torrential rains in Brazil's southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul are disrupting the final stages of soy and corn harvesting. Argentina's Buenos Aires grains exchange slashed its estimate for the 2023/24 corn harvest on Thursday, citing the effects of a damaging leafhopper insect plague and poor weather. Ukrainian exports of agricultural commodities wheat and corn are likely to fall by nearly a quarter in the upcoming 2024/25 July-June season, the first deputy agriculture minister told Reuters on Thursday. Export sales of U.S. corn in the week ended April 25 totaled 758,500 metric tons, in line with trade expectations for 650,000 to 1,300,000 tons. Field work in the U.S. Midwest may be slowed by rains this week, but planting conditions remain favorable, analysts said.

CBOT corn stable as South American estimates cut CHICAGO, April 16 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade corn futures ended largely flat on Tuesday as traders assessed declining production estimates in South America and the start of U.S. plantings. Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier said he cut his Argentine corn production estimate by 3 million metric tons to 50 million metric tons due to corn stunt disease spread by leaf hopper insects. The corn harvest in Parana state, the second largest corn producer in Brazil, will likely be cut in the next revision, according to crop agency Deral, in the face of dry weather and excessive heat. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported after trading ended on Monday that U.S. corn planting was 6% complete as of Sunday, one percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 5%. CBOT May corn CK24 settled down 1/2 cent at $4.31 per bushel.

Soybean production is forecast to be a record 4.59 billion bushels and carryover inventories were higher than trade estimates as well. Almost every state had an increase in soybean acreage over last year and the overall yield is projected to be a whopping 53.2 bushels per acre. What does this mean? Well, for Farmers, expect lower prices and weak basis to continue UNTIL significant demand materializes. For Grain Elevators and Soybean Processors, there will be ample volume to keep everyone busy. Thank you to the farmers, grain elevators and processors for growing, handling, storing and processing our crops! #GEAPS; #NOPA; #FRAZIERBARNES.COM; #BUYAMERICAN

South American harvest affects U.S. crop markets 📉     A recent metric states that a 1% change in South American soybean production can lead to a .25% change for U.S. crop prices.   Normally, Brazilian soybean harvest is complete by the end of June.   As Brazil has become the largest competitor for U.S. soybeans, and yield in the has increased, the historical U.S. soybean market response provides a clear sales indication for farmers in early summer.    #fintech & #data for #ag #communitybanks and #farmers

Ukraine’s grain and oilseed harvest in 2024 is projected to reach around 74 million tons, which is about 10% lower than last year’s record harvest of 82 million tons. This includes approximately 52.4 million tons of grains and 21.7 million tons of oilseeds. The decline is mainly due to reduced wheat and barley yields, with wheat expected at 19.2 million tons (down from 22.2 million in 2023) and barley at 4.9 million tons (compared to 5.7 million last year). However, soybean production is set to increase to 5.2 million tons from 4.7 million in 2023 . As of September 2024, around 35 million tons of the crop had already been harvested, including significant portions of wheat, barley, and rapeseed. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy has updated its grain harvest forecast to 56 million tons, with the total crop (including oilseeds) expected to hit 77 million tons . The 2024 season highlights a modest reduction in harvested areas, influenced by weather conditions and other factors.

The report pegged North Dakota soybean acreage at 6.9 million an 11% increase over 2023. Although South Dakota soybean acreage is not predicted to rise by as much as North Dakota, it will be significant — an increase of 200,000 from 2023 to 5.3 million this year, the report said. In Minnesota, 2024 soybean acreage is estimated to increase by 100,000 acres over last year, to 7.5 million acres. https://lnkd.in/eFTR2_2g

Tambov Region Harvests 3.7 Million Tons of Grain: Soybeans Show Remarkable Growth Despite Challenges In 2024, farmers in the Tambov region celebrated a significant achievement in grain production, bringing in a total of 3.7 million tons. Notably, soybean production reached an impressive 526,000 tons, surpassing last year’s output of 450,000 tons. This increase in yield has solidified Tambov’s position as a leading soybean producer in Russia, despite challenging weather […] https://lnkd.in/en_MihiC

How many corn acres will we get on Friday? The market expects no major change, but I anticipate at least +1mn acres more of corn. - The export pace of US corn from the March 31st planting intentions report until June has been close to 9mn t, significantly higher than last year when we were at a little over 1mn t. - Dec 2024 corn futures prices have only decreased -1.6% from the March report until June, while last year's price decline was greater, closer to -6.4%. - Fertilizer affordability has been increasing since March 2024, while at the same time last year, fertilizer affordability was decreasing. Excited to see the Acreage report on Friday to discover what decisions the US farmer has made. #Agriculture #CornMarket #AcreageReport #USDA

Soybean High-Price Cure May Need Low-Price Shift - Soybeans could have a date with $10 a bushel. US stocks-to-use aren't as elevated as corn, but my graphic shows a top headwind for prices: substantial soybean supply and exports from Brazil and Argentina. The 2020-22 price spikes spurred large acreage shifts to grain production from pastureland in Brazil, and the transition may be unstoppable until low prices reverse profit incentives. The full report is on the Bloomberg terminal here: https://lnkd.in/egB5wbMu {BI COMD} Bloomberg Intelligence #soybeans #corn #grains #agriculture #brazil

GRAIN MARKET REVIEW: Average oilseed prices have moved lower in recent weeks as crop prospects for #soybeans improved, but the outlook for #rapeseed has remained bullish. The International Grains Council (IGC) in its Oct. 17 Grain Market Report said, “average international soybean values, as tracked by the IGC GOI sub-Index, softened by a net 3%,” since the previous month’s report, “on an increasingly bearish fundamental backdrop, with broadly comparable declines at all origins.” → https://ow.ly/6rME50TPMGW #agriculture #agribusiness #grain #oilseeds