AleaSoft Energy Forecasting - en’s Post

𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 28:   Prices in most major European #electricitymarkets increased compared to the previous week and their weekly averages exceeded €80/MWh.   On Monday, November 4, the #N2EX market of the United Kingdom registered the highest hourly price of 2024 so far.   #Solar #photovoltaic energy production increased compared to the previous week in the Italian market but declined in the rest of the major European markets. Despite these declines, production records for a November day were reached in all major markets in Europe.   #Wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week.   Electricity #demand decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week.   Settlement prices of #TTF #gas futures in the #ICE market for the Front‑Month registered values above €40/MWh during most of the week, although they declined compared to the previous week.   #CO2 emission allowance futures in the #EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024 rose at the beginning of the week and then declined. However, the weekly average was higher than the previous week.   #Brent #oil futures for the Front‑Month in the #ICE market declined compared to the previous week.   For the first week of November our #forecasts indicate that prices will continue to rise in the main European electricity markets, influenced by increasing demand and declining wind energy production.   https://lnkd.in/gdyyBjzy

𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 9:   Prices in the main European #electricitymarkets continued to rise, with most of them reaching weekly averages above €120/MWh.   On December 11, 12 and 13, the #EPEXSPOT markets of Belgium, the Netherlands and France, the #N2EX market of the United Kingdom, the Iberian #MIBEL market and the #IPEX market of Italy reached their highest daily prices since at least March 2023.   #Solar #photovoltaic energy production increased in the Iberian and Italian markets compared to the previous week and reached records for a December day in Spain and Portugal.   #Wind energy production decreased in all major European electricity markets compared to the previous week.   Electricity #demand registered an increase in most major European electricity markets compared to the first week of December, driven by colder average #temperatures.   Settlement prices of #TTF #gas futures in the #ICE market for the Front‑Month declined, but they remained above €41/MWh.   Settlement prices of #CO2 emission allowance futures in the #EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024 decreased compared to the previous week.   #Brent #oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered price increases in most sessions of the second week of December.   For the third week of December, our #forecasts indicate that prices will fall in European electricity markets, influenced by increased wind energy production and falling demand in most markets.   https://lnkd.in/g-CGMGxP

𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 25:   Prices in most major European #electricitymarkets increased compared to the previous week, reaching weekly averages above €100/MWh.   Despite the increases, during the early morning of Monday, November 25, the #EPEXSPOT markets of Germany and the Netherlands, the #N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the #NordPool market of the Nordic countries registered negative hourly prices, due to high wind energy production in the early hours of the week.   #Wind energy production declined in all major European markets compared to the previous week.   #Solar #photovoltaic energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The German market reached the second highest value of production with this technology for a November day in its entire history on Saturday, November 30.   Electricity #demand decreased compared to the previous week in most major European markets.   Settlement prices of #TTF #gas futures in the #ICE market for the Front-Month exceeded €46/MWh during the whole week, and their average was higher than that of the previous week.   The average of settlement prices of #CO2 emission allowance futures in the #EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024 was lower than the previous week. Settlement prices were above €67/t during the week.   #Brent #oil futures for the Front-Month in the ICE market decreased compared to the previous week.   For the first week of December, our #forecasts indicate that prices will increase in most major European electricity markets, influenced by falling wind energy production and rising demand. However, prices will fall in the Iberian #MIBEL market and the Italian #IPEX market.   https://lnkd.in/gaCcJZZ9

𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 14:   Average prices in most major European #electricitymarkets increased compared to the previous week, although they were below €81/MWh in almost all markets.   On Sunday, October 20, most markets registered negative hourly prices, except the #IPEX market of Italy and the #MIBEL market of Portugal.   The #EPEXSPOT markets of Germany, Belgium, France and the Netherlands reached the lowest hourly price of the week, ‑€2.01/MWh, on Sunday, from 14:00 to 15:00.   #Wind energy production decreased in the main European markets compared to the previous week.   #Solar #photovoltaic energy production increased in the Iberian Peninsula compared to the previous week, but it decreased in Italy, France and Germany.   Electricity #demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week.   The average of the settlement prices of #TTF #gas futures in the #ICE market for the Front‑Month was slightly higher than the previous week, although they showed a downward trend during the week.   #CO2 emission allowance futures in the #EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024 rose at the beginning of the week and then showed a downward trend. However, the weekly average increased compared to the previous week.   Prices of #Brent #oil futures for the Front‑Month declined in the ICE market.   For the fourth week of October, our #forecasts indicate that prices will continue to rise in most major European electricity markets, influenced by declining wind energy production and increasing demand in most markets.   https://lnkd.in/gFHdPpiV

Significant aspects of the European markets during the week of August 5:   #TTF #gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month continued the upward trend experienced in the previous week, reaching values above €40/MWh, something that has not happened since early December 2023.   Despite the rise in gas prices, prices in most of the main #Europeanelectricitymarkets were lower than the previous week.   Italy's #IPEX market was the only main European market where prices rose, reaching its highest daily price so far in 2024 on August 12 at €136.28/MWh.   Most markets registered hours with zero or negative prices between Friday, August 9 and Sunday, August 11, as well as the Belgian and Dutch markets on August 7.   The lowest price of the week, €-59.97/MWh, was registered on the #EPEXSPOT market in the Netherlands between 13:00 and 14:00 on August 11.   #Solar energy production increased in most of the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week.   The French market broke the all-time record for solar #photovoltaic energy production on August 5 with 129 GWh generated.   The highest #photovoltaic energy production for the month of August was registered in the German market on August 6, with 386 GWh generated, as well as in the Italian market on August 9, with 126 GWh generated.   #Wind energy production decreased in most of the main European markets compared to the previous week.   Electricity #demand decreased in most of the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week.   Settlement prices for #CO2 emission allowance futures in the #EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024 rose in almost every session in the second week of August. The weekly average was 0.6% higher than in the week of July 29.   #Brent #oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered the lowest settlement price since January 8 on Monday, August 5. Prices rose on all other days of the week, but the weekly average was 1.4% lower than the previous week.   Our #forecasts suggest that prices will remain close to last week's levels for the week of August 12, with declines in some markets towards the end of the week due to the August 15 holiday. https://lnkd.in/eXjAAk-R

𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 11:   Average prices in most major European #electricitymarkets exceeded €100/MWh, although they were lower than the previous week.   On November 14, the #EPEXSPOT market of France registered its highest price since December 7, 2023, which was €125.10/MWh.   In the Iberian #MIBEL market, on November 18, the price was €136.37/MWh, which is the highest since October 17, 2023.   On November 11, the Nordic #NordPool market reached its highest price since April 27, 2024, which was €68.17/MWh.   #Wind energy production increased in all major European markets compared to the previous week.   #Solar #photovoltaic energy production increased compared to the previous week in Italy and France. In Portugal, on Monday, November 11, the record of production with this technology for a day in November was again surpassed.   Electricity #demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the first week of November.   Settlement prices of #TTF #gas futures in the #ICE market for the Front-Month increased in almost all sessions of the second week of November. On Friday, the 15th, they registered the highest settlement price since November 25, 2023, €46.55/MWh.   The average of the settlement prices of #CO2 emission allowance futures in the #EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024 increased compared to the previous week.   #Brent #oil futures for the Front-Month in the ICE market declined compared to those of the week of November 4.   For the third week of November, our #forecasts indicate that wind energy production will continue to increase in most major European markets, which will support prices to continue to fall in most electricity markets.   https://lnkd.in/gVgtmq9e

𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 18:   Average prices in most major European #electricitymarkets decreased compared to the previous week.   On Sunday, November 24, prices were below €14/MWh in most markets, the lowest since at least the last three months.   #Wind energy production increased compared to the previous week in most major European markets. During the week, Spain, Portugal and France reached historical daily production records, while Germany registered a production record for a November day.   #Solar #photovoltaic energy production increased compared to the second week of November in the Spanish and German markets.   Electricity #demand increased in all major European electricity markets compared to the previous week.   #TTF #gas futures prices in the #ICE market for the Front‑Month increased. On Thursday, November 21, they reached the highest settlement price since November 3, 2023, which was €48.30/MWh.   Settlement prices of #CO2 emission allowance futures in the #EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024 rose and remained above €68/t during the third week of November.   #Brent #oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered price increases in almost all sessions of the third week of November.   For the fourth week of November, our #forecasts indicate that prices will increase in most major European electricity markets, influenced by falling wind energy production and rising demand in some markets.   https://lnkd.in/gudtCrKj

𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐒𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 30:   Prices in most major European #electricitymarkets increased compared to the previous week. Weekly averages were above €70/MWh in most markets.   Despite the increases, almost all markets registered negative prices of ­‑€0.01/MWh, mainly on Sunday, October 6, from 13:00 to 16:00.   #Solar #photovoltaic energy production decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week.   The markets of the Iberian Peninsula and France registered historical records for daily solar photovoltaic energy production for October.   #Wind energy production decreased across the board in the main European electricity markets compared to the last week of September.   Electricity #demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week.   Settlement prices of #TTF #gas futures in the #ICE market for the Front‑Month continued the upward trend of the previous week. On Friday, October 4, they reached a settlement price of €40.98/MWh, which was the highest since December 2, 2023.   #CO2 emission allowance futures in the #EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024 registered a downward trend. On October 4, the settlement price, €62.05/t, was the lowest since April 6.   #Brent #oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market rose. On Friday, the settlement price, $78.05/bbl, was the highest since late August.   For the second week of October, our #forecasts indicate that prices will fall in most European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in wind energy production.   https://lnkd.in/gecBd3xX

𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 2:   Weekly average prices exceeded €100/MWh again in most major European #electricitymarkets.   On Wednesday, December 4, the #EPEXSPOT market of Belgium and France and the #IPEX market of Italy reached their highest prices of 2024.   During the week, the French, Spanish and Portuguese markets set all-time records for #solar #photovoltaic energy production for a day in December.   #Wind energy production increased in the Iberian and French markets compared to the previous week. The French market registered the highest value of wind energy production for a December day in history on Saturday 7.   Electricity #demand rose in most major electricity markets in Europe compared to the previous week.   On Monday, December 2, #TTF #gas futures in the #ICE market for the Front-Month reached their highest settlement price since October 31, 2023, which was €48.66/MWh.   #CO2 emission allowance futures prices in the #EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024 decreased compared to those of the last week of November.   #Brent #oil futures prices for the Front-Month in the ICE market declined compared to the previous week.   For the second week of December, our #forecasts indicate that prices will increase in most major European electricity markets, influenced by falling wind energy production and increasing demand.   https://lnkd.in/gnQD-c2Q

𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 7:   Average prices in most major European #electricitymarkets were below €75/MWh and decreased compared to the previous week.   On Sunday, October 13, the #EPEXSPOT markets of Germany, Belgium, France and the Netherlands, as well as the British #N2EX market, registered negative hourly prices. The French market also had negative prices on Thursday, October 10.   The German market registered the lowest hourly price of the week, ‑€15.69/MWh, on Sunday, from 14:00 to 15:00.   On October 10, from 20:00 to 21:00, the #MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal registered the highest price since February 21, €180.00/MWh.   On October 14, from 19:00 to 20:00, the French and British markets reached the highest hourly prices since early December 2023, €161.89/MWh and £199.98/MWh, respectively.   #Wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week.   The #IPEX market of Italy registered a historic daily #solar #photovoltaic energy production record for October, 89 GWh, on the 11th.   Electricity #demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week.   #TTF #gas futures in the #ICE market for the Front-Month remained at similar levels compared to the previous week, with a weekly average 0.1% lower.   #CO2 emission allowance futures in the #EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024 fell compared to the previous week. On Tuesday, October 8, they registered a settlement price of €60.29/t, which was the lowest since April 5.   Prices of #Brent #oil futures for the Front-Month in the #ICE market increased compared to the previous week.   For the third week of October, our #forecasts indicate that prices will increase in European electricity markets, influenced by declining wind energy production and increasing demand in most markets.   https://lnkd.in/g-5kz_MB