Aleph - Analisi strategiche’s Post

First Edition of Aleph Briefs With a Trump victory in the 2024 Election, many questions arise in terms of European defense, especially whether it will face greater challenges or have greater acceleration from a potentially less reliable US support. At the forefront is Eastern Europe, with various countries to be profoundly affected by any decision that the US takes. Check it out here: https://lnkd.in/em7bAu9C

  • Aleph Briefs: Eastern Europe's security under President Trump
  • Confusion:

If there is a word to summarize the Trump administration’s relations with Eastern European security, it would be confusion.

Statements from Trump’s inner circle range from cutting off support to Ukraine, to even a higher degree, making it extremely hard to decipher his actual plans.
  • Ukraine and Russia:

"[Trump's] approach would involve pressuring Ukraine with the prospect of a complete cut-off in aid if they do not agree to peace talks, while simultaneously cautioning Russia that US support for Ukraine would increase should they refuse to participate in peace negotiations."
  • Peace:

Trump has been running his campaign on a promise of peace “within a day”, potentially signaling Trump’s willingness to compromise to Russia over territorial concessions.

Ukraine has declared itself unwilling to give up any of its territory, pinning Eastern Europe in a security dillemma.
  • Serbia and Kosovo:

"The Biden administration has aimed to balance power dynamics in the Western Balkans, maintaining a neutral stance on regional conflicts. 

With Donald Trump though, potentially there may be a shift in US foreign policy towards a more Serbia-friendly approach, heightened by the possible involvement of Richard Grenell, who served as Trump's Special Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo peace negotiations."
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