🗞️[#Outlook] What is the macroeconomic and market outlook for 2025? There are anomalies that might be reversed but also bright spots. The global economic outlook for 2025 still looks favourable for risk assets, but policy and geopolitical challenges are entrenched. Anomalies such as market concentration and excessive debt require greater and more nuanced portfolio diversification and dynamic allocation adjustments. Diversification across multiple fronts is essential given the potential for policy shifts. Current anomalies call for frequent reassessment and dynamic adjustments, with a focus on risk assets in H1. Identifying the best opportunities will require drilling into sectors that will benefit from transformative long-term themes. These include demographic trends, geopolitical and manufacturing shifts, as well as the effects of climate change, technological innovation, and the cost of energy transition. Investment implications are: 🔹 Income gains traction. 🔹 Equity: potential for a broadening of the rally beyond the US mega caps and stretched valuations, we favour a globally diversified approach 🔹 #EmergingMarkets may outperform Developed Markets. In emerging Asia, India and Indonesia offer the best long-term picks and are more insulated from tariffs. 🔹 Challenges warrant nuanced diversification on multiple fronts. 🔑 To learn more about Amundi’s key convictions and investment themes for 2025, visit: ⤵︎ https://lnkd.in/enyBfuge
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Market Sentiment about MSCI THAILAND in a Nutshell (1/2) The current sentiment surrounding **MSCI Thailand** in financial circles reflects a **mixed outlook** shaped by both macroeconomic factors and sectoral trends. Here's a detailed breakdown of the sentiment in percentage terms based on market analysts and investor behavior: Optimistic Sentiment (40-45%): Optimism primarily stems from Thailand's **potential as a dynamic emerging market**. Bulls argue that the **long-term growth prospects** of the country's key sectors, such as **financials and consumer goods**, will drive positive performance. Additionally, Thailand's growing emphasis on **infrastructure projects** and its integration into global supply chains (especially post-pandemic) bolster this outlook. Investors with a bullish view highlight that the **MSCI Thailand Index**, which represents the Thai equity market's large and mid-cap stocks, is relatively well-positioned for growth as the country's **tourism sector rebounds** and consumer spending picks up. Furthermore, some see Thailand’s position in Southeast Asia as a **gateway to future regional economic expansion**, offering exciting upside potential for ETFs tracking MSCI Thailand. Neutral Sentiment (35-40%): Neutral sentiment comes from those who are cautiously optimistic, yet aware of certain risks. These investors acknowledge Thailand's economic recovery post-pandemic but remain hesitant due to **political instability** and **volatile market conditions**. The country’s **dependence on energy and financial sectors**, both of which are highly sensitive to global economic conditions, creates uncertainty about future performance. Those holding a neutral stance prefer a **wait-and-see approach**, acknowledging Thailand’s growth potential but also recognizing that **macro risks** such as fluctuating currency values (Baht) and the unpredictable regulatory landscape might dampen returns. For this group, MSCI Thailand ETFs remain a **diversification play** in broader emerging market portfolios. (2/2)---->(https://lnkd.in/dW68XmjM)
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Are emerging markets providing one of the biggest opportunities of a lifetime? Emerging markets have contributed over 60% of global GDP - discover why they might be the best investment opportunity today. Read now to find out: https://lnkd.in/gd8SZraQ
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Average long-term growth has slowed over the last decade in most major emerging markets owing to lower productivity—partly explained by declines in fixed investment. While interest rates are high globally, emerging markets with strong domestic savings are better positioned to finance greater investment and boost long-term growth prospects. The pace of long-term GDP growth plays an important role in our sovereign ratings in our assessment of economic resilience, among other factors: https://okt.to/B9nct2
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𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝘂𝗹𝘂𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘉𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘶𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘴: Emerging Markets Asia ex-China saw approximately US$5.3 billion in outflows this week, led by: Taiwan: US$2.3 billion India: US$1.4 billion Korea: US$1 billion ASEAN: US$0.78 billion Meanwhile, Southbound inflows reached US$1.6 billion on Monday, before markets closed for China’s National Day holidays. Chinese equities recorded the largest monthly buying on record in September, driven by recent policy stimulus announcements. H-shares led the buying at 47%, followed by A-shares (30%) and ADRs (24%). The co-movement between Emerging Markets ex-China and the CSI 300 suggests that both markets are responding to broad-based risk factors. However, the weaker returns in Emerging Markets ex-China may be attributed to fund outflows into China, driven by recent stimulus announcements, among other factors.
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Our latest External Sector Report shows that net capital flows to emerging markets, excluding China, have recovered to highs not seen since 2018. It’s a striking sign of resilience. More in our blog. https://lnkd.in/eDQEJSaT
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As the US rate cycle peaks out, having attractive options in emerging markets is fundamental to any pivoting of capital flows
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MSCI THAILAND IN A NUTSHELL The MSCI Thailand Index is a stock market index that represents the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Thai market. Here are some key points about the MSCI Thailand Index: 1. **Purpose**: The MSCI Thailand Index aims to provide a benchmark for the Thai equity market, reflecting the performance of large and mid-sized companies. It is part of the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index. 2. **Components**: The index includes a variety of companies from different sectors within the Thai economy. These companies are selected based on market capitalization and other criteria set by MSCI. 3. **Rebalancing**: Like other MSCI indices, the MSCI Thailand Index is reviewed and rebalanced on a quarterly basis. This ensures that the index accurately reflects the current state of the Thai equity market. 4. **Investment**: The MSCI Thailand Index is widely used by investors to gain exposure to the Thai market. Various investment funds and ETFs track this index, making it easier for investors to invest in Thai equities. 5. **Significance**: Thailand is classified as an emerging market, and the MSCI Thailand Index is an important tool for investors looking to understand and invest in this market. It provides insights into the performance and trends within the Thai economy.
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Emerging markets are buzzing with renewed manufacturing activity after years of sluggishness. This resurgence is fueled by strong government support, improving macroeconomic conditions and new supply chains. Amy Oldenburg, Head of Emerging Markets Equity highlights a recent report by Jitania Kandhari and Saumya Jain explaining the transformational changes that are taking place. https://mgstn.ly/4hOzF40
Tales from the Emerging World - Industrials
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US stocks are lagging behind many of the world's major developed and emerging markets, ranking in the bottom third of returns the past three months behind China, the UK, Japan, Taiwan, Germany, Italy and emerging markets as a whole. The US ranks 16th among our 23 major markets, with its gain of just 3.7% trailing the returns of 7.3% for emerging markets and 5.6% for developed markets (not including the US). The divergence in equities comes even as US bellwether companies post far superior earnings growth versus a small increase in emerging markets and a contraction in developed markets excluding the US. Gina Martin Adams Bloomberg Intelligence
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The Emerging Markets appear to be following powerful and well-established trends of economic, political and social convergence with the developed world. An expression of the aggregate impact of these convergence trends is the consistently rising wealth of the emerging world, with growth in GDP per capita significantly outpacing that in the developed world. Find out more about the opportunities this can create for investors in Ashmore’s Annual Report: https://lnkd.in/e_H5HGzs #EmergingMarkets
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