Anurag Srivastava’s Post

Global Slowdown: Impact on Commodity Prices As the global economy cools, you're likely noticing a significant impact on commodity prices. With China, Europe, and the US all slowing down, the ripple effects are being felt across various sectors. Energy Prices Decline: Energy commodities, which constitute nearly 60% of the S&P GSCI, are experiencing a downturn. The weaker demand from China and increased supply in the US are driving these prices down, affecting businesses reliant on energy-intensive operations. Agriculture Prices Shift: While most agricultural commodities are seeing a price drop due to weaker global growth, some exceptions exist. For example, coffee, cocoa, livestock, and orange juice are bucking the trend due to constrained supply. If your business relies on these commodities, it's crucial to stay informed about these fluctuations. Industrial Metals Under Pressure: The global slowdown is also affecting industrial metals, with prices dropping as demand wanes. This trend may have implications for manufacturers and industries dependent on these materials. Gold Shines Amidst Uncertainty: On the other hand, gold is seeing a rise in prices. As Chinese households seek alternatives to falling property and stock prices, and central banks continue to purchase gold, the demand for this precious metal remains strong. If your business is involved in or affected by the precious metals market, this trend could offer insights into consumer behavior and investment strategies. As you navigate this shifting landscape, understanding these trends can help you make informed decisions for your business. How is your industry responding to these changes in commodity prices? #economicoutlook #commodityprices #businessstrategy #globalmarkets #financialplanning #entrepreneurship #socialnetworking #technology #innovation #pnwa #investing #creativity

Your weekly #industrial update is here ✨ Inflation cools in the US and the Eurozone, with more rate cuts on the horizon. As a result, annualized declines were observed in the food, alcohol, tobacco and #energy industries. Stay up-to-date with our industrial insights here ⬇ https://lnkd.in/eiKhkmQ3

The picture of the US economy as the locomotive of global GDP growth developed some cracks over the past month as economic data releases have started coming in notably below expectations. However, for the time being, this is balanced by signs of an uptick in global trade activity, growth acceleration in select emerging markets and indications of a growth recovery even in Europe. Against this backdrop, commodity markets in aggregate managed to extend their advance even though as in the preceding month divergences at the sector level remain present. #newsletter #june #commodities #foodrevolution #products #picardangst https://lnkd.in/d3943s4

#2024 #China #Commodity Market #Analysis and Outlook Q1, 2024 is coming to an end. Commodity market continues the trend in Q4 of last year. The main driving logic of the market has not changed. Overall, Q2, 2024 is expected to be at an important, critical stage when policies come into force, but how well they work remains to be verified in Q3. It is expected that commodity prices will most likely have an upward tendency throughout the year. Please visit https://lnkd.in/g2CWv6TV for the full analysis atricle.

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE: China manufacturing PMI expands for the 3rd consecutive month; Crude oil trading at ~ USD 74.40 pb China's manufacturing activity grew for a third straight month albeit at lower pace, to 50.1 in December from 50.3 in November. Meanwhile non-manufacturing PMI came in stronger at 52.2 in December vs 50 in the month prior. Foreign Exchange: DXY is trading at 107.97 as traders continued to digest the likelihood that the Fed will make fewer rate cuts next year. GBP retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.2550 during the Asian hours. This upside of the pair could be attributed to the subdued USD amid weaker UST yields. EUR is trading at 1.040 amid thin volumes before New Year. JPY is trading at 156.43 as traders expect the BoJ to deliver an interest rate hike in January. INR is trading at 85.59 and is likely to trade in the range of 85.55-85.65. Bonds: US 10Y yield is trading at 4.53% amid the mixed economic data that were released on Monday. India 10Y yield is trading at 6.76% weighed by UST yields.

China’s PPI Decline April 2024 - Indicating Demand Recovery By: Juanta Tarigan The drop in China's Producer Price Index (PPI) to 107.30 points in April 2024, down from 107.50 in March, is viewed as a favorable development indicating a reduction in inflationary pressures among producers. This trend aligns with historical trends, with China's PPI averaging 107.03 points from 2016 to 2024, peaking at 114.30 points in May 2022 before gradually decreasing. Several factors likely contributed to the decline in producer prices in April 2024. Firstly, the stabilization or potential decrease in global commodity prices, especially for raw materials and energy, may have lessened the financial burden on Chinese producers. This could have enabled them to limit price hikes for consumers, resulting in a lower PPI reading. Secondly, improvements in global supply chain resilience could have helped alleviate production bottlenecks and input shortages that previously drove up producer prices in China. As disruptions in the supply chain diminish, it might have led to more stable and predictable production costs for Chinese companies, leading to a decline in the PPI. Moreover, a potential moderation in domestic demand within the Chinese economy might have restrained producers' pricing power, resulting in slower increases in output prices. This situation could have contributed to the lower PPI in April 2024. The Chinese government and central bank could have also taken steps to manage inflationary pressures and ensure stability in producer prices through targeted policies like monetary easing or fiscal stimulus measures. While the drop in China's PPI in April 2024 is considered positive, it is essential to acknowledge that various global and domestic factors influence the index's trajectory. Continuous monitoring and analysis of economic data will be crucial in evaluating the sustainability of this trend and its impact on the broader economic landscape.

Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist, discusses the upcoming upswing in commodity prices driven by anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong demand from the Indo-Pacific region. While the U.S. dollar may decline, countries like Vietnam and the Philippines are emerging as key markets for Chinese steel exports, signaling robust growth potential in these economies. 📖 Read the article here: https://lnkd.in/gMm-KJkN 🎥 Watch the video here: https://lnkd.in/gTVqN9S4

Oil prices ease on demand concerns in China Oil prices eased on Monday as worries about demand in top importer China offset supportive U.S. economic news, OPEC+ supply restraint and ongoing Middle East tensions. Brent futures fell 18 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $84.85 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 30 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $81.91. "Chinese data including refinery runs and crude imports are not supportive," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "But demand growth elsewhere is still healthy." China's economy grew much slower than expected in the second quarter as a protracted property downturn and job insecurity knocked the wind out of a fragile recovery, keeping alive expectations Beijing will need to unleash even more stimulus. China's refinery output fell 3.7% in June from a year earlier，down for a third month on planned maintenance, while lower processing margins and lacklustre fuel demand pushed independent plants to cut output. In the U.S., the market focused on the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, which some say could boost his re-election chances. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation readings for the second quarter do "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the U.S. central bank's target in a sustainable fashion, remarks that suggest a turn to interest rate cuts may not be far off. The Fed hiked rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to tame a surge in inflation. Borrowing costs rose for consumers and businesses, slowing economic growth and reducing demand for oil. Lower interest rates could boost oil demand. Markets are pricing in a 94.4% chance of the Fed cutting rates by at least 25 basis points in September, CME's FedWatch Tool showed, after last week's news that June consumer prices fell on a monthly basis for the first time in four years. Source: https://lnkd.in/gaARMm5s #OilPrices #FinanceInsights #FinanceNews

Pakistan Market Strategy 2025 (Breaking Barriers: KSE-100 Marches Toward 148K) Pakistan’s KSE 100 index is all set to generate total return of 40%, breaching 148k level during CY25. Market is expected to reach target PE of 8x in line with last 10-year average PE versus current PE of 6.1x. Target PE of 8x is justified considering Pakistan’s economic outlook as most of the indicators are in line with average of last 10 years. Delay in meeting bi-annual reviews of IMF Program and spike in international commodity prices to remain primary risks to our index target. We expect Cement, Banks, Energy and Fertilizers to outperform during 2025. Deleveraging/reduction in interest rate to drive cement earnings whereas, cheap valuations and better payouts will drive Banking, Energy and Fertilizer stocks. Our Top blue chips include PSO, PPL, FABL, FCCL, FFC and SAZEW while we like alpha stocks like CSAP, TOMCL, SSGC, GAL, ATRL, PAEL and HALEON. #strategy2025

With improving macroeconomic indicators and a strong corporate earnings outlook, we remain optimistic about achieving our index target. Breaking barriers is not just a goal—it’s a journey the market is ready for. #PSX