Ashwin D'Costa’s Post

In a recent issue of the Economist, they have reviewed, "The Art of Uncertainty" by David Spiegelhalter. Sadly the book is not yet available in Australia unless you import it via a UK book seller. The review is excellent though and I can't wait to read the book. Professor Spiegelhalter has apparently written a book about maths that is actually pleasurable to lead. He combines elegant explanations with philosophical questions. Just by chance I happened today to be listening to an episode of the Risky Business podcast by Silver & Konnikova. They talk about how President Kennedy was presented with an option during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The boffins apparently did not think he would understand what a 30% chance of success in the Bay of Pigs Invasion would mean so they said that the operation had a "fair" chance of success. He took this to mean that it was worth trying the operation. Given the same wording I am not sure that many of us would have interpreted it differently. But what does fair or 30% even mean in a case like this. I am hoping Professor Spiegelhalter is going to explain it to me. And on one of my other major themes, I think we should all be taught more statistics in school. I have come to think that statistical thinking is more important than calculus in terms of your general life. I'd welcome your thoughts though.

Spiro Kolokithas

As a mortgage broker, I sprint the extra mile—no fluff, no excuses, just real results. “Good enough” isn’t in my vocabulary. I make your home loan journey simple, fast, and stress-free. Let’s get it done! 🚀

2mo

Thanks for sharing! That sounds like a fascinating read, and I’m intrigued by The Art of Uncertainty—it’s a shame the book isn’t easily available here yet, but the review makes it sound worth the wait. Your example from the Cuban Missile Crisis highlights how easily probabilities can be misunderstood depending on how they’re framed. “Fair chance” can mean something entirely different depending on personal bias or interpretation, and I hope Professor Spiegelhalter explores this in more detail. I completely agree about the importance of statistical thinking. It affects so many areas of our daily lives—from interpreting news and health data to making financial decisions. Being able to critically analyse data and understand probabilities leads to smarter, more informed choices. Unfortunately, software and other companies often distort statistics by cherry-picking data or using misleading visualisations to present their products more favourably. This makes it even more crucial for people to recognise skewed data. I believe schools should focus more on teaching statistics, as it’s far more relevant to everyday life than calculus. Let me know your thoughts once you get your hands on the book—I’d love to hear what you think!

John Potts

Taking an extended break from full time work however would consider part time remote work -

2mo

Nice work mate - good on ya!!

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