ATrad’s Post

(Below is my Market commentary from last week, which I again call a short-term bottom!) Tis The Season! According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, "portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house in September." They say that the day after Labor Day (what I call Tuesday), the Dow Jones was down 11 of the last 15 years. I can confidently report that the score is now 12 out of the previous 16 years. Statistically speaking, this is pretty darn significant. October, historically, is just as poor typically as September; however, October is known as the "Bear Killer" as it ends what is generally the worst six months of the year for the market. In Presidential election years since 1950, October ranks as the worst month, down an average of 1%. So, returning from the Labor Day weekend last week, I got a "short-term" sell signal in my proprietary technical analysis program. As most of you know, I don't write about it unless it triggers an "intermediate-term" sell signal, which, as of today, it has not. However, with today's (9/11) market action taking the Dow Jones below last week's low, which I hoped would not happen, I felt the need to mention it. At this time, I am looking at the 600-plus point drop today as a possible final push down into the current short-term sell signal. For this to prove the case, I need the "intermediate-term" buy signal (which is hanging on by a thread) to hold up. If it does, and I suspect it will, the table should be set for some short-term bottom. Good news, right? I have been open about my belief that the market could make a top in late 2024 or early 2025. I now think there is better than a 50-50 chance that we have seen a top for 2024. Why? The Nasdaq 100 index made a lower high in August before rolling back over to the downside. Lower highs are one of the signs that a stock or index is breaking down! This is after a wave of negative sentiment on the Nasdaq 100 in early August, a buy signal. The last time sentiment got that low on the Nasdaq 100 and the ensuing rally did not carry the index back above the previous high was in December 2021. (Please see the attached chart courtesy of stockcharts.com). If the rally I wrote about above does not correct this downtrend, I would be inclined to lighten up on equities. Changing gears, I know I will be asked over the coming days if I watched the Presidential debate last night. I did not. When I pay my car and homeowners insurance, buy groceries, etc., I know all I need to know. I tell my children to never try to defend the indefensible. As a man who stopped counting after the fourth time I raised my right hand to swear to uphold the Constitution, I have earned the right to say that, as a country, we would be much better off not attempting to defend the indefensible! God Bless!

Small-cap stocks have lagged the broader equity rally. But after a prolonged period of underperformance, we believe small-caps are attractively valued. This part of the market also stands to gain more from Fed rate cuts in 2024 as smaller companies are more reliant on floating-rate debt than their larger peers.

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#US_TECH_100 Note: Beyond the buy/sell examples, the most intriguing aspect here is definitely the performance indicator across different time frames, providing a clear comparison between Long and Short positions Disclaimer: All my posts are provided just for your reading pleasure. If you decide to rely on them for any purpose whatsoever, I will not be held liable, and you do so at your own risk. This is just an example for demonstration purposes of what can be done using the Excel application. ----------------------------TradingAdvisor 3.0.5------------------------------- example developed in-garage, for further details contact me via Linkedin messaging, thank you. Current operations: Long open Trades: 1 Short open Trades: 0 Note: Gros and Net Total Equity are for single stock, SMA are plotted at the end using the values of the two best time frames for indicative purposes only

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