Better In Our Back Yard’s Post

“Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, China’s dominant position in critical minerals has raised widespread concerns about supply chain security. The United States and its allies have begun exploring strategies for decoupling from China,” write UTS:ACRI Associate Professor – Research Marina Zhang and Research Principal Professor Xunpeng Shi in the Lowy Institute’s Interpreter.    They make the case that “A blunt decoupling approach might not only fail to ensure the security of critical mineral supply chains but could also jeopardise the achievement of global energy transition and sustainable development goals. … The discourse should shift from a binary choice between decoupling and dependency to a nuanced strategy of engagement that recognises the mutual benefits of cooperation.” Read: https://bit.ly/3uOL6VY

The return of Trump to the political spotlight raises important questions about how his administration might handle critical minerals, relations with China, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Here's a breakdown of potential implications: 1. Critical Minerals Supply Chain Diversification Bipartisan Support: Both Democrats and Republicans recognize the importance of diversifying the supply chain for critical minerals, especially in reducing dependency on China for rare earths and other key resources. Security Over Climate: Under a Trump administration, the focus may shift more toward national security and economic competitiveness rather than emphasizing climate-driven policies. This could mean: Increased investments in domestic mining and refining capabilities. Incentives for allied countries to develop and share critical mineral resources. 2. China Relations Tougher Stance: Given Trump’s past rhetoric and policies, we can anticipate stricter trade and investment restrictions targeting China, potentially impacting: Export controls on minerals and technologies critical to clean energy. Measures to block Chinese influence in global critical mineral supply chains. Decoupling Push: There might be heightened efforts to decouple from Chinese supply chains, accelerating partnerships with allies like Canada, Australia, and African nations. 3. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Adjustments Revisions Likely: The IRA, as a cornerstone of Biden’s climate agenda, could face significant revisions or repeals. For example: A reallocation of funds from renewable energy incentives to fossil fuel infrastructure or military applications tied to resource security. Reduced emphasis on climate goals in favor of economic and industrial growth priorities. Domestic Industry Boost: While Trump’s administration might downplay climate aspects, the IRA’s provisions related to onshoring and securing supply chains for critical minerals might remain or be expanded. Broader Implications Global Impact: Shifts in U.S. policy could disrupt global critical mineral supply chains, forcing countries to reconsider their strategies. Allied Collaboration: Nations reliant on U.S. policy stability might seek to secure independent agreements to mitigate risks. The intersection of energy security, critical minerals, and geopolitics will be key under a Trump 2.0 administration. The challenge will lie in balancing national security imperatives with global cooperation and climate commitments.

There shouldn’t be « zero sum » mentality around the famous « critical minerals ». It is possible to set up efficient global supply chains for everybody with these so called « critical minerals ». Because the global suppliers of these minerals are almost the same ones who supply them to all industries across the planet. Why creating the politics of hysteria and tensions around these minerals? The suppliers of critical minerals are almost the same in the United States 🇺🇸, China 🇨🇳, Europe 🇪🇺, Australia 🇦🇺, Russia 🇷🇺, Japon 🇯🇵 or Brazil 🇧🇷 and elsewhere. Why creating tensions, conflicts and politics of fears and « zero sum » mentality? Why spreading genocide and mass crimes in the Congo 🇨🇩 for those minerals? This is the reason why we need effective leadership and policymaking around the world that bring real change of peaceful trade and international collaboration to deal with common global challenges and issues. Let businesses that have capitals and technologies work efficiently through market and with effective policymaking developing global supply chains of critical minerals that industrialists need to develop products that consumers need around the world. Everything else is part of toxic timocratic politics that are destroying many countries in Europe 🇪🇺 and North America 🇺🇸🇨🇦 with devastating consequences in countries like Congo where Rwanda 🇷🇼 has been abused by those timocrats to loot Congo 🇨🇩. Time has come to end this nonsense!

With its critical mineral strategy, Australia seeks to break free from China

Wondering how the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) Forum is going to strengthen the critical raw material supply chains globally? The European Commission's communications team presents the details. #MineralsSecurityPartnership #SustainableSupplyChain #EU #US

Africa – rich in critical minerals – will accelerate intra-continental trade and harness its natural resources for sustainable development by rolling out effective trade policies, to benefit from the global rush for green energy transition. With approximately 30% of the world’s mineral reserves, including cobalt, lithium, and nickel, which are considered essential for the green transition, African countries need to exploit these resources to drive its development, particularly trade and industrialization, experts say. https://lnkd.in/eA7cjRUX

Olimpia Pilch, Co-Founder and Senior Advisor of the Critical Minerals Association Australia, details the outlook for Australian critical minerals, navigation of turbulent markets, crucial policy changes, and international significance. Read Olimpia's analysis below ⬇ #CriticalMinerals #Australia #Lithium #Nickel https://bit.ly/42HQwyc

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute published a thought-provoking op-ed calling for stronger government intervention to address #criticalminerals, their suppl and pricing. The author argues one can’t hedge against #politicalrisk or some government action ruining profits. We respectfully disagree. Allonia Group exists because we know how to explain how government action and country behavior are largely predictable. (Not to mention, most advanced and western economies will not be making drastic market interventions on behalf of critical minerals any time soon.) There are ample opportunities for critical mineral projects in places that investors tend to shy away from – #LatinAmerica, #EasternEurope and #CentralAsia – placees where Allonia Group can offers its expertise. https://lnkd.in/grExEGeq

In a compelling address, Jonathan Price, CEO of Teck Resources Limited, recently emphasized the critical mineral investment gap between Western nations and China. Price pointed out that while China has committed an impressive $20 billion in 2023 alone to expand its global access to these indispensable resources, Western efforts like Canada’s $4 billion investment over eight years pale in comparison. This strategic sector not only supports the high-tech and green energy industries but is also pivotal for national security and economic prosperity. It’s high time for Western leaders and companies to respond with more robust strategies to ensure a balanced and secure supply chain. #TeckResources #CriticalMinerals #Geopolitics #EconomicIndependence https://lnkd.in/gkCF8_4z

❗ ❗ New Publication ❗ ❗ I am delighted to announce the publication by Ifri - Institut français des relations internationales of my policy briefing on the United States’ Strategy for securing critical minerals supplies and its ability to meet the needs of the IRA? The US reliance on foreign supplies of raw and processed critical minerals is pressing Washington to devise a strategy to secure short-, medium- and long-term solutions. Pressure only increased with the booming demand spurred partly by the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) policies. The US goal to become carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035 and reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 requires a complete overhaul of the structure of critical minerals production and supplies within the country as well as abroad to meet future demand and build resilience from China. This Memo assesses recent progress and whether it can help deliver on the IRA provisions. Thanks a lot to Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega for his guidance, as well as Aaron Malone and Nicole M. Smith for their inputs.