BİLGİ European Institute’s Post

With #Hizbullah allegedly open to a #ceasefire after devastating strikes by #Israel which have severely degraded its capabilities, one would think that regional de-escalation is in the works. Instead, Yahya Sinwar has reemerged, while rejecting proposals to release hostages in return for safe passage out of #Gaza, US and Arab states are secretly scrambling to get #Iran to push #ceasefire around the region, #Israel is under #Biden's instructions not to target #Iran's #Nuclear or #oilandgas sites, and the talks about #Gaza #ceasefire are re-emerging in the #media and #Policy circles in the US and internationally. Why is the international community looking to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? And what can we make from this single-minded fixation on the #Gaza charade? The Washington Outsider #Report on Coalition Radio spoke to Joshua Krug, PhD about the latest developments, and how Sinwar is able to continue deceiving and manipulating the international community into some semblance of political legitimacy. We discuss the secrets of the newly-minted #Hamas #Politburo chief's successful #diplomacy and also explore what #Israel can at this point contribute to advance a transition to a more secure and peaceful situation in #Gaza, whether and what role can Gazans in exile play a role in more pragmatic solutions to governance issues, and what can be done to avoid having Western leaders and societies falling into the trap of the endless and toothless #diplomacy with terrorist organizations. The fact that this charade is still dragging on is particularly striking in light of #Israel's recent #intelligence and #military accomplishments! #MiddleEast #Arabworld #terrorism #counterterrorism #extremism #counterextremism #warcrimes #Informationwarfare #Propaganda #disinformation #counterintelligence #psychology #Levant #proxies #militias #humanrights #humanitariancrisis #humanitarianaid #humanitarianassistance #politics #elections #elections2024 #JCPOA #nuclear #nucleardeal #nuclearpower #nuclearenergy #nuclearweapons #Trump #Biden #KamalaHarris #GOP #Republicans #Democrats #military #security #defense #foreignpolicy #foreignaffairs #diplomacy #geopolitics

In this exclusive interview, Dr. Eyal Hulata, former National Security adviser and head of the National Security Council at the Prime Minister's office, offers deep insights into the country's pressing security concerns and regional challenges. 📌Defending Against Threats: Dr. Hulata analyzes Israel's preparedness for potential escalations, particularly from Iran. 📌Gaza and the Humanitarian Crisis: He delves into the ongoing challenges in Gaza, including humanitarian efforts and the hostage situation. 📌International Support: Dr. Hulata offers a critical perspective on international support for organizations and the need for recognition of the full picture. 📌Security Concerns on the Rise: He discusses potential attacks in the West Bank and rising anti-Israel sentiment on university campuses, urging a stronger response. 📌Military Actions and Defense Capabilities: Dr. Hulata sheds light on recent military actions and Israel's overall defense readiness. This interview provides a comprehensive look at Israel's security challenges and ongoing regional issues. Watch now https://lnkd.in/dhcA4Vk7 Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) #IsraelWar #IsraelNews #IsraelGaza

Superb Analysis by Doctor Ulupi Borah. Have a look at it:

My interview with the renowned military historian and researcher Dr. Kaveh Farrokh from Canada. I am really proud to announce that I interviewed Dr. Kaveh Farrokh from the University of British Columbia and Langara College (Canada) on "Tactics of the Sasanian Spah". For this interview see https://lnkd.in/erwkGnGz #sasanians, #sasanids, #iran, #Persia, #Persien, #SasanianEmpire, #empire, #research, #Forschung, #recherche, #tactics, #military, #militaryTactics, #strategy, #Strategie, #savaran,

You & I are being manipulated. We are being bombarded with propaganda & misinformation. Think you’re too intelligent to fall for it? Think again. The more time that you have spent as an academic the higher the likelihood that you have accepted the narrative. The discussions on the 5 Eyes Intelligence Alliance (minute 19:40) & Psychological Bioterrorism (minute 23:35) should, as a minimum, force us all to question what we are being told (sold) by our so-called leaders: https://lnkd.in/gzfAQP39

Before the actual invasion, how much do you think the exit of the Shah affected Soviet plans for that area of the world? ZB: The collapse of the American position in Iran had to have a rather strikingly reinforcing impact on Soviet expectations. This was a major setback for the United States. There's no doubt that from the standpoint of the Soviet analysis of the situation, the collapse of the regime in Iran meant that the position of the United States north of the Persian Gulf was disintegrating https://lnkd.in/daaxJqJt

The downfall of the Shah and the Iranian hostage crisis - how much did they influence Americans' reaction to Soviet policy in Afghanistan? ZB: I think the crisis in Iran heightened our sense of vulnerability in so far as that part of the world is concerned. After all, Iran was one of the two pillars on which both stability and our political preeminence in the Persian Gulf rested. Once the Iranian pillar had collapsed, we were faced with the possibility that one way or another, before too long, we may have either a hostile Iran on the northern shore of the Persian Gulf facing us, or we might even have the Soviets there; and that possibility arose very sharply when the Soviets marched into Afghanistan. If they succeed in occupying it, Iran would be even more vulnerable to the Soviet Union, and in any case, the Persian Gulf would be accessible even to Soviet tactical air force from bases in Afghanistan. Therefore, the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan was viewed by us as of serious strategic consequence, irrespective of whatever may have been the Soviet motives for it. Our view was the objective consequences would be very serious, irrespective of what may or may not have been the subjective motives for the Soviet action. https://lnkd.in/daaxJqJt

While the escalation in the #MiddleEast and the tensions in the #IndoPacific remain at the top of the US and international #ForeignPolicy agenda,, The Washington Outsider #Report on Coalition Radio held a timely discussion with Jason M. O. who has both professional and academic experience in both areas, to discuss the relationship between the region, the common threats, and whether resolving some of the conflicts in the #MiddleEast could have a positive impact on the #IndoPacific. We talk about how making the #MiddleEast a safer place through integration could create a point of stability and put an end to the triangulation between #China, #Russia, and #Iran. We talk about educational gaps and lapses and the importance of having an #AbrahamAccords type framework in the US higher education to be able to work with other regions. We talk about the proliferation of false, distorted, and Islamist narratives about the history of the region. We delve into US #foreignpolicy and why judicious exercise of power in both regions could both deter enemies and inspire allies. We discuss various strategies of dealing with threats - should we be supporting independence movements in #China, #Russia, or #Iran? OR should we be more focused on building up our allies and investing into the #strategy of common #defense? Can a renewed relationship with Middle Eastern states create a buffer against the unwelcome #Beijing influence? And so much more.... Don't miss the full long but thorough discussion on some of the most important geopolitical dilemmas the world is facing today! #military #security #defense #MiddleEast #ArabWorld #thegulf #GCC #Qatar #UAE #UnitedArabEmirates #Bahrain #KSA #SaudiArabia #Gaza #Hamas #Iraq #Lebanon #Hizbullah #Morocco #africa #northafrica #Egypt #Jordan #peacebuilding #peacemaking #conflictresolution #conflictmanagement #terrorism #counterterrorism #extremism #counterextremism #education #China #foreignaffairs #diplomacy #geopolitics #strategy

Dr. Eran Lerman, a seasoned expert in national security and strategic affairs examines the shifting dynamics between Israel and the United States under the current administration. Dr. Lerman discusses the potential impacts of these changes on Israel’s security, diplomatic relationships, and the broader Middle East region. With insightful analysis, Dr. Lerman explores what these developments mean for Israel's future and how the country can adapt to new challenges on the global stage. Watch now https://lnkd.in/djr-yUaW to understand the intricacies of international relations and the evolving landscape of U.S.-Israel ties. #israelnews #israelwar #iranisraelwar

A Short Analysis of the Recent Escalation Between Iran and Israel 1. The end...for now: Despite Israel's recent attack on Friday, it is unlikely that the recent confrontation between the two countries will escalate into a war. 2. Israel did change its policy towards Iran: The Israeli attack on Iran's consulate in Damascus on April 1 marked an unprecedented escalation. Despite the Iranian response on April 13, the main shift is that Iranian assets in Syria and Lebanon are now more vulnerable to Israeli attacks. 3. Hezbollah was on the sidelines: Hezbollah played a minor role in the April 13 Iranian attack. This indicates that Iran did not want to risk escalating the situation into a confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. Notably, during the April 17 attack at Arab al-Aramshe, Hezbollah deployed the Alma ATGM missile for the first time, showcasing significant capability. 4. Iran did signal part of its response: Unlike the September 2019 Iranian attack against the Saudi oil processing facilities at Abqaiq, this time, Iran provided a warning about its intentions but surprised everyone with the extent of the attack, which was much larger than anticipated. The Iranian intention was to demonstrate that "next time" it would deliver a massive surprise. 5. Iran is maintaining a "strategic patience" approach: Tehran is seeking to avoid regional escalation while simultaneously maintaining the current status quo that serves its regional goals. To learn more about the recent escalation, please listen to the webinar I conducted with Iran expert Dr. Raz Zimmt earlier this week.