BNP Paribas REIM’s Post

GLOBAL RETAIL OUTLOOK JUNE 2024 Sector Drivers: • The U.S. economy is expected to see a soft landing and avoid recession, with Europe forecasting a modest recovery. APAC will outperform but grow below trend. • Central banks, including the ECB, are adjusting their policy rates to stabilize economies. • Inflation is expected to moderate in major Western economies. • Retail sales volumes are projected to improve in 2024. E-commerce: • E-commerce penetration is surpassing pre-COVID trends in the U.S. and Australia. • Growth is resuming in markets like the U.K. and Mainland China. • Cross-border e-commerce is on the rise, driven by low-cost players like Shein and Temu in the U.S. Occupier Market: • Brick-and-mortar expansions are focusing on prime locations in global cities and the U.S. • Retailers are investing in flagship formats and destination stores to attract consumers. • Retail rents have increased both quarterly and yearly across all regions. Investment Market: • Retail investment has slowed amid a broader market downturn. • Investors are drawn to retail due to higher entry cap rates and the resilience of convenience-focused assets. • Retail’s share of global investment volumes has grown, despite a general decline in other sectors. CBRE Asia Pacific CBRE Retail Manish Kashyap Richard Barkham Henry Chin Julie Whelan Liz Hung Ada choi, CFA Henry Chan Tasos Vezyridis Alex Ozga Pol Marfà Miró Brandon Isner Laura Barr Todd Caruso Kenna Brannon Chris Gardener Anna Esteban Yiwei Z. Bryn Davies Bimal Sharma Zino Helmlinger Joan Chen Lawrence Wan Mai Vo Maam Argos Ayaka Saito Yusuke Fujita Ryan Kim Rob Wilkinson Jenna Choi Jariya Thumtrongkitkul, PhD. Sheree Griff Leif Olson Dinah Ng Luke Moffat Rohini Saluja Shobhit Choubey Lim Mian Carlos Casado Sanjuán

🛒 Visual Capitalist: The World’s Top Retail Companies, By Domestic Revenue 🛒 Did you know the retail sector fuels the economy with $5.3 trillion annually in the U.S. GDP? 🇺🇸 It's also the largest private-sector employer, with 55 million jobs! 💼 Despite this, retailers face intense challenges from rising e-commerce and inflationary pressures. Discover how top retail companies are navigating these turbulent times. 📈 Read now: https://lnkd.in/gGJdiJF5 . . . #Finance #MarketInsights #EconomicAnalysis #Investing #Business #RetailIndustry #EValuatorFunds #EconomicTrends

Deloitte Global Retail Outlook 2024 The global retail industry is at a crossroads due to suppressed consumer spending, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, and rapid changes in consumer behavior. ·       Retailers are making decisions about long-term investments in new technology and business models while managing the rising cost of doing business and a decline in consumer spending power. ·       The future of the retail industry depends on the choices businesses make today. The year 2024 could be seen as a transformational year for retail if the right decisions are made. ·       Retail leaders around the world are relatively optimistic for 2024 despite the global uncertainty. The industry anticipates a net increase in revenue growth. ·       The majority of retailers foresee an increase in revenue from 1% to 9%. European retailers are the most positive, expecting slightly higher revenue growth compared to other regions. ·       The global retail industry also projects optimistic expectations for operating profit margins. The majority of retailers foresee a modest increase, indicating overall confidence in the sector’s financial performance. ·       Retailers in the United States and Europe show a similar sentiment, while Middle East Asia Australia demonstrates a slightly lower percentage expecting an increase in operating profit margins. ·       While e-commerce contributes to top-line growth, retailers are focused on managing its impact on profitability. There are clear opportunities to improve profitability, but it may prove challenging. ·       In retail sectors where margins are tight, the additional costs associated with delivery eat into profits. This is particularly challenging in Europe and the Middle East due to logistics and infrastructure issues. ·       Technology can create efficiencies, which can boost the profitability of e-commerce over the next decade. However, consumer behavior, such as the demand for speedy fulfillment, also impacts profitability. #retail #global #middleeast #ecommmerce #retail #retailtransformation #innovation

Considerable progress has been made in reducing embedded carbon in products, given the scale of growth among the largest global 200 retailers. Through our research with Retail Economics, we have shown that reducing embedded carbon in products does not need to come at the expense of commercial success. Read our #PathToNetZero report: https://lnkd.in/e4HAXQzW #Consumer #ESG #Retail

Looking for M&A trends and strategic guidance in the retail sector? Check out Grant Thornton Australia first edition of Retail Dealtracker. This report examines M&A and equity market activity in the Retail & Consumer Products sector between 1 July 2022 – 31 December 2023. Overall, the number of deals in the sector declined to 231 deals in the 18 month period ending 31 December 2023, from 339 deals in the preceding 18 months to 31 December 2021.  The rise in the cash rate, climbing from 0.1% in April 2022 to 4.35%, has played a role in this decline. Heightened inflationary pressures prompted consumers to alter their purchasing habits, impacting retailers' stock movement and profit margins. Diminished profitability and more challenging trading conditions have diminished their attractiveness to potential buyers, leading to a drop in deal volume during this period. Read more here - https://lnkd.in/gQkv-cqT

Pleased to share Deloitte’s 2024 Global Retail Outlook, where we assess the overall health of the retail sector. The report explores three systemic challenges and three opportunities that will define the retail sector not only in the year ahead, but into the next decade and beyond. #RetailOutlook2024 https://deloi.tt/3wBPB6G  

New capital formation is gathering momentum in the value-add and opportunistic space with growing appetite for higher yielding assets. #NuveenRealEstate expects continued demand for income driven returns that core, grocery-anchored retail produces. Find out why now could be the best time to invest in U.S. retail.

I’m pleased to share our latest retail report “The Perfect Storm on the High Street: Retailers Need a Radical Rethink To Ensure Long-Term Survival.” European retailers are facing a tough environment. Higher costs and reduced consumer spending are forcing businesses to act decisively in order to reduce their labour costs and streamline their real estate portfolios. This report aims to provide business leaders and investors with an overview of the key trends shaping the sector and the radical rethink required by retailers who want to thrive in the long term. Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/erXwW3sK #ExpertsWithImpact #Retail

This is a research model used by Mehrgan Malekpour (Malekpour et al., 2023) in her paper entitled "Exploring digital transformation and technological innovation in emerging markets" in the International Journal of Emerging Markets Database. The paper aims to fill the research gap regarding customer preferences for digitalization to create value for retailers and customers, as well as focus on changing retail and shopping behaviors in wholesale retail stores in emerging markets. The findings of this study reveal that the impact of digital transformation in the retail industry will be more visible in emerging markets. Originality/value The originality of this paper consists of an understanding of the future retail structure in emerging markets. In particular, the focus on consumer-to-consumer business seems to be helpful in distinguishing between behavioral intent (buying) and online buying behavior (actual use) in emerging markets. For more complete information, please read the paper directly at the following Paper Link: https://lnkd.in/gHRPTWfY #digitaltransformation #microbusiness #retailsectors

How can your business seek out and stimulate demand to succeed in the challenging retail environment? With inflation easing, consumer sentiment is on the rise. But consumers aren’t yet ready to loosen the purse strings and not all retailers are equipped to attract ‘cautious spending’. PwC UK's latest article explores what it takes to be successful in this era of ‘considered consumption’. #Retail #BusinessRestructuring #ActNow