Brickwork Ratings’ Post

India's consumer price inflation reached a 14-month peak of 5.81% in October, primarily driven by rising vegetable and edible oil prices. Food prices, which dominate the inflation basket, surged, notably in tomatoes due to rain-disrupted supply. Import tax hikes on edible oils also fueled inflation. The October CPI, nearing the RBI's 6% tolerance cap, could challenge anticipated rate cuts, especially with core inflation forecast at 3.60% amid strong festive demand and rising gold prices. #India #Inflation #VegetableOil #EdibleOil

India's consumer price inflation likely reached a 14-month peak of 5.81% in October, driven by rising vegetable and edible oil prices, nearing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance limit of 6%. Key factors included high tomato prices due to rain disruptions and a 20-point import tax hike on edible oils in September, further pressuring household budgets. Core inflation was estimated at 3.60% due to festive demand and gold price increases. Despite inflation risks, economists are uncertain about an imminent RBI rate cut, as inflation may not reach the 4% target before 2026. #India #Inflation #VegetableOil #EdibleOil

The Indian market concluded relatively flat, with its initial path being eclipsed by continuation of the Adani-Hindenburg-SEBI saga. However, the market tried to brush away these noises, taking positive cues from global markets. Moreover, the domestic market is anticipating ease in CPI inflation, which is going to be further supported by a good monsoon. Yet, the upside risk remains, given firm oil prices and volatility in food inflation

India's inflation rate in September rose to its highest level in nine months, driven primarily by increased food prices. At the same time, industrial output in August contracted for the first time in nearly two years. The year-on-year growth in the consumer price index for September surpassed the rate recorded in August, according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). #ICIS #India #inflation #CPI #MoSPI #RBI #GDP #IIB

Brent Crude at $70-75: A Boost for the Indian Economy Brent crude prices hovering around $70-75 per barrel bring good news for the Indian economy. Since India imports about 80% of its oil, these lower prices can be a real game changer. Here’s why: 1. Controlling Inflation: Cheaper oil means lower fuel and transportation costs, which helps keep the prices of essential goods down. This makes it easier for people to afford everyday items and supports overall economic stability. 2. Reducing the Current Account Deficit (CAD): Lower crude prices can significantly cut India’s import bill, saving the country billions of dollars and strengthening its financial position. 3. Stronger Rupee: When oil prices fall, the demand for dollars decreases, which can help the Indian rupee hold its value and reduce depreciation. 4. Boost to Key Sectors: Lower fuel costs are a big help for sectors like manufacturing and transportation, making businesses more profitable and encouraging economic growth. 5. Government Revenue Impact: While cheaper oil might reduce taxes collected from fuel sales, the overall boost to economic activity could help offset the loss by increasing broader tax revenues. In short, this price range offers India a solid opportunity to push forward with its economic goals while addressing some of its fiscal challenges. #IndianEconomy #BrentCrude #Inflation #OilImports #EconomicGrowth #Rupee

India Sept inflation at nine-month high; Aug industrial output shrinks India’s retail inflation hit a nine-month high of 5.49% in September, mainly on firmer food prices, while the country’s industrial output in August shrank for the first time in 22 months. The year-on-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in September was higher than the 3.65% rate seen in August, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) said on Monday. #ICIS #India #inflation #CPI #MoSPI #RBI #GDP #IIB https://lnkd.in/gDbe5xrY

How will the Indian rupee's significant drop and ongoing high food inflation impact the Indian economy, particularly in relation to key imports like crude oil? The Indian rupee experienced its largest single-day drop in nearly two months, with the value of $1 reaching close to 84 rupees, an all-time low for the currency. The drop was triggered by a sell-off in Indian markets, where foreign investors withdrew around $1.2 billion due to global market panic caused by weak U.S. job data and rising tensions in West Asia. Indian importers are engaging in aggressive dollar buying, known as hedging, to protect against further rupee depreciation, which is causing additional pressure on the currency. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is actively intervening to defend the rupee by offloading dollars from its reserves and advising banks not to bet against the rupee, while also preparing for a prolonged fight against inflation. The weakening rupee, combined with high food inflation, poses a significant challenge for India, potentially driving up the cost of key imports like crude oil, which could exacerbate overall inflation. #RupeeWatch #InflationImpact #IndiaEconomy #ForexMarkets #CrudeOilPrices

Is It Time for the RBI to Let the Rupee Take a Dive? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been actively managing the rupee-dollar exchange rate to keep the rupee stable. But some experts are questioning whether it’s time to let the rupee find its natural value. Why the RBI Controls the Rupee? The RBI steps in to protect the rupee from sudden drops, especially during times of economic stress. By doing this, it ensures that India has enough foreign currency reserves and keeps things steady for businesses and investors. What Happens if the Rupee Falls?   If the rupee weakens, our exports could become more competitive. However, higher inflation, especially with rising food prices, might limit the benefits. Plus, Indian exporters often rely on imported materials, so their costs could still be high, even with a weaker rupee. Is the Rupee Overvalued?   Some say the rupee is overvalued by about 5%, which makes Indian goods pricier for international buyers and slows down export growth. The RBI’s efforts to prop up the rupee might be making our exports less attractive. So, Should the RBI Let Go?   It’s a tricky balance. A weaker rupee could boost exports, but it’s not a guaranteed fix. The RBI may feel it’s better to keep the rupee stable to control inflation and avoid shocks to the economy.

Rupee Hits an All-Time Low of 84.11 Against the US Dollar This week, the Indian rupee reached a record low, closing at 84.11 against the US dollar. Factors like weak domestic market performance, sustained foreign investor outflows, and rising crude oil prices contributed to this decline. With the BSE Sensex and Nifty also seeing significant drops, it’s a challenging time for the Indian economy. For businesses, this fluctuation could mean higher import costs and inflation concerns. On the bright side, a weaker rupee might benefit exporters by making Indian goods more competitive globally. However, it also means tighter budgets for consumers, as the cost of essentials like fuel and groceries may rise. In uncertain times like these, it’s vital to stay informed and consider the impacts on investment and business strategies. For a more detailed look at the rupee’s decline and its potential effects, check out the full breakdown in my latest blog post. 📊💼 #blogbreezes #bhumikapothana #IndianRupee #ForexMarket #CurrencyFluctuations #USDRupee #IndianEconomy #InvestmentInsights #FinancialNews #Inflation #RBI #GlobalEconomy #OilPrices #MarketUpdate #LinkedInInsights

India's Inflation Set to Cool in FY25: RBI Forecasts 4.5% Average! CPI measures the ‘Retail Inflation’ for the country which was at 5.4% in FY24 Some of the factors driving this decrease; - The country anticipates normal supply of key vegetables, minimizing price volatility - Experts predict no significant change in crude oil prices, with an average basket price of $83.1 per barrel projected for FY25 - Given the current economic scenario, average food inflation is expected to remain within the usual range of 3.4-3.7% Overall, the forecast and current scenario seems pretty optimistic for the coming fiscal! #economy #finance #linkedin #india