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CEO & Chairman at Marathon Asset Management

BR is Bullish on Resi Credit: The U.S. residential mortgage market is $14T. When a mortgage is out-of-the-money, the loan trades below par and the prepayment rate is ~3% CPR which means only 3% pre-pay per annum (i.e., owner moves, extra cash flow, death), a low prepayment rate. When mortgage rate fall, homeowner who are in-the-money by 75bs are likely to refinance, CPR jumps to 20%+ given homeowners seek to lower their monthly payment. It’s wonderful news for homeowners, but for those who own premium coupon MBS they are subject to negative convexity. Convexity measures the sensitivity of a bond's price to changes in interest rates. Bonds with positive convexity benefit commensurately to a decline in rates as future cash flows are discounted at a lower rate, making them more valuable. MBS on the other hand have negative convex when the price approaches par as the investment doesn't increase as much from this inflection point due to prepayment risk rising as the bondholder loses the opportunity to earn the higher interest payments and then must reinvest at lower rates. The bar chart below shows the rate distribution for the mortgage universe. As the mortgage rate is now 6.1%, mortgages >6.5% are highly susceptible to early pre-payment. MBS between 5% - 6%, might see prepayments inch up marginally from 3% CPR to 4% as these slightly out-of-the-money homeowners who have felt trapped, now have more flexibility to move since the cost to do so is marginalized. Note that in the U.S., 30-year fixed rate mortgages are priced at spread to 10-year UST (not SOFR or Fed Funds); I expect the 10-year UST rates will decline less than the front end of the curve as the yield curve steepens as the Fed cuts rates. New home sales will benefit in this lower rate environment as will existing homes sales. Be Bullish: lower mortgage rates are net-positive for homeowners/residential credit, home builders, building materials, and mortgage originators.

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I think you need to look at,distribution of the whole current universe and dispersion of rates on all mortgages outstanding.the percentage of 4 % and below is large.

Salvatore Salzillo

SVP, Head of Real Estate Lender Finance

3mo

The main constraint to homeownership won’t be rates but supply of new homes.

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Alberto Fernández López

Director of Investor Relations & Market Intelligence en Unicaja Banco | Fintech | Valuation | Banking

3mo

Not always, How good were lower rates for home owners between 2010 and 2017?

Mark Olson

Founder, Acorn Distribution Partners

3mo

Another informative lesson from Professor Bruce Richards. Thanks Professor…keep em coming.

Willy Franco

Overwhelmed by admin tasks and content creation + Hard to focus on growth? → Automate to streamline operations. Focus on what matters! - Founder of Veritas Assitants

2mo

Great analysis, Bruce! The relationship between prepayment rates and mortgage convexity is key to understanding the dynamics of the residential credit market.

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Insightful ! Thank you.

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