Carlos Villafranca’s Post

GRAINS-Corn edges higher after big US export sales CANBERRA, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Chicago corn futures rose on Thursday after U.S. shippers reported their biggest daily export sale in more than a year, but prices remained under pressure as the ongoing U.S. harvest poured supply onto the market. Wheat futures also gained as a warning that polar winds could hit crops in Argentina underscored fears that dry conditions in exporters such as Australia could tighten the market. Soybeans edged higher after forecasts for rain in top producer Brazil helped push prices to their lowest since late August. FUNDAMENTALS The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Cv1 was up 0.3% at $4.06 a bushel at 0022 GMT, while CBOT wheat Wv1 climbed 0.4% to $5.87-1/4 a bushel and soybeans Sv1 rose 0.3% to $9.83 a bushel. All three contracts have been under pressure from a sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar this month, massive U.S. corn and soy harvests and rain in South America and the Black Sea, two key export hubs. Prices are not far from four-year lows reached earlier this year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said on Wednesday that U.S. exporters sold 1.6 million metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico. This demonstrated to speculators that low crop prices can attract demand and triggered short covering, brokers StoneX said. However, dry weather in the U.S. has accelerated harvesting, with 47% of the corn crop and 67% of the soybean crop gathered by Sunday, well above the average pace of the last five years, according to the USDA. Forecasts for beneficial rains in dry crop-growing areas of South America also loom over the corn and soy markets, though Antarctic polar winds blowing over Argentina could further dry out corn and wheat fields there, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said. In Ukraine, high demand for wheat from Asian importers and a limited supply on global markets has pushed domestic and export prices up, producers said. MARKETS NEWS U.S. stocks ended higher in opposition to their global counterparts on Wednesday, and crude extended its decline on projected softening demand.

🔵💬 Market Briefs in the Morning by Esteban Moscariello: - After reaching consecutive highs in the last two sessions, the soybean market in Chicago is registering profit-taking this Wednesday (25), with falls of between 4 and 4.50 points in the most traded contracts. - A forecast of improved rains for Brazil next week also influences traders' decisions, contributing to the downward pressure on soybean prices. - Corn and soybeans reached highs of almost two months due to technical purchases and coverage of short positions, although they could not sustain the gains throughout the day. - Strong selling by producers due to the progress of the soybean and corn harvest in the US limited the rise in prices after the first 30 minutes of the session in Chicago. - The rains in Brazil are slow to arrive, delaying the planting of soybeans. This could affect safrinha corn, making it vulnerable to heat and drought. - China is speculated to have bought 10 to 15 cargoes of US soybeans over the weekend, but no official announcements have been confirmed. - The Chinese government cut lending rates and eased second home purchases, boosting global markets and weakening the dollar. - Strike at Vancouver port affecting six major grain terminals, complicating trade in the middle of harvest season. - Logistical problems in the US and restrictions at southern ports due to storm Helene and a possible strike on the East Coast next week are exacerbating transport problems. - Brazil's ANEC raised its estimate for September corn exports by 50,000 tonnes, reaching a total of 6.68 million tonnes. - The Rosario Stock Exchange projects that total grain production in Argentina for 2024/25 could reach 143 million tonnes with favourable weather, but could fall to 128.8 million tonnes if not enough rain is received. - In the European Union, cumulative corn imports through September 22 reached 4.72 million tons, while barley exports totaled 1.51 million tons. - Yesterday (24), the funds sold 1,000 wheat contracts, bought 2,500 corn contracts, 3,000 soybean contracts, 6,000 soybean oil contracts, and sold 1,500 soybean meal contracts. ➡️ By Esteban Moscariello -- 📌📈

GRAINS-Soybeans steady after China's plans to probe Canadian canola lift prices CANBERRA, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Chicago soybean futures eased slightly on Wednesday, after rising sharply in the previous session as Beijing announced an anti-dumping investigation into imports of canola from Canada raised hopes that China could buy more U.S. soy. Wheat and corn futures also edged lower after rising sharply on Tuesday. FUNDAMENTALS The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Sv1 was down 0.2% at $10.10-1/2 a bushel, as of 0055 GMT, after climbing 1.2% in the previous session and reaching its highest in a month. CBOT wheat Wv1 was down 0.1% at $5.66 a bushel and corn Cv1 slipped 0.3% to $4.08 a bushel. All three contracts are close to their lowest levels since 2020 due to plentiful supply. Speculators are betting that prices will fall further. ICE canola futures RSX4plunged and Chinese rapeseed oil futures rallied after China responded to Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles with the canola probe. More than half of Canada's canola makes its way to China, the world's biggest oilseed importer. Overseas demand for U.S. soybeans has been lacklustre but recent days have seen an uptick in export inspections and sales reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Meanwhile, the USDA reported that weekly condition ratings for the U.S. soybean crop declined more than most analysts expected in the last week as dry conditions expanded in portions of the Midwest crop belt. Stubbornly dry weather continues to linger over 20%-25% of the U.S. soy and corn crops, mainly in the Ohio Valley and far northwest U.S. Midwest areas, Commodity Weather Group said on Tuesday. The USDA's corn condition ratings held steady. MARKETS NEWS Asian shares and global stock futures fell amid a tech selloff, while the dollar and yen rose on safety bids and U.S. Treasury yields edged lower as investors fretted over the outlook for the world's largest economy.

🔵💬 Market Briefs in the morning by Esteban Moscariello: - Soybeans and corn fall, while wheat rises. US stocks are up and the US dollar is unchanged. Crude oil is near $70 and gold rises. - Soybeans fall after Trump announced tariffs if elected. The EU delayed deforestation legislation, affecting US soybean meal prices. - Soybeans and soybean meal in Dalian also fell. Soybean oil and palm oil rise. Rains in northern and central Brazil will help plantings and soils. - Corn prices in Chicago rose slightly, but the December contract did not exceed $4.05/bu, with rebounds as it approaches the $4/bu level. - The US corn harvest is progressing with almost 50% of the area harvested, which continues to impact prices. - Gulf corn prices improve: Prices in the central Gulf improved five cents, despite deteriorating conditions on the Mississippi River. - River freight under pressure in the US: Barge freight rates weakened by 25% for the Illinois River due to river conditions. - US corn remains competitive in key markets such as Japan, while Brazil faces difficulties due to rising prices and logistical problems. - The euro/dollar parity continues to fall, approaching 1.0850, its lowest level since August, while a new rate cut is anticipated at the European Central Bank meeting. - Despite a somewhat more favorable context for exports in France and Europe, trading volume is limited due to the low availability of the 2024-25 crop, which supported wheat and corn prices. - Wheat prices rose, reaching $5.85/bu in the December contract after an initial session in decline. - The soybean harvest is progressing well in the US, putting pressure on prices, with the November contract near $9.75/bu, the lowest level since August, sparking interest from importers. - China bought several cargoes of soybeans yesterday, including one for November from the Gulf and two from the Pacific Northwest, in addition to Brazilian cargoes for different months in 2024 and 2025. - Soybean and by-product prices were stable in South America, and processing margins improved due to the strength of the oil and meal market. - The corn and sunflower harvest in France is facing problems, with sunflower prices rising due to reduced available volumes, while the price increase in rapeseed has been less pronounced. - In 2024, US used cooking oil (UCO) imports exceeded 2023 levels, reaching 3.2 billion pounds through August. China dominates with 57% of imports. - The funds yesterday (16) sold 4,000 soybean contracts, 3,500 soybean oil contracts and bought 1,000 soybean meal contracts, bought 2,500 wheat and 4,000 corn contracts. - We now estimate that the funds are sold 33,000 Chicago wheat contracts, 69,000 corn, 51,000 soybeans, bought 85,000 soybean meal and bought 29,000 soybean oil. ➡️ By Esteban Moscariello -- 📌📈

CBOT soybeans jump on short-covering, changes in U.S. presidential race CHICAGO, July 22 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures jumped on Monday on a flurry of short covering, with prices rebounding from 2020 lows last week after U.S. President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, traders said. Soybean futures had plummeted in recent weeks, in part because as traders had been betting that former President Donald Trump would be elected to a second term in November and potentially roll out additional tariffs against top global soy buyer China, market analysts said. A renewal of a Trump-era trade war with China could mean less demand for U.S. soy on the international market and weigh on U.S. prices, at a time when global stocks are hefty, traders said. But on Monday, investors reevaluated the political landscape and soybeans rose on questions about Trump's election chances in November - as U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris received a flurry of political support and raised nearly $50 million in less than 24 hours after Biden's campaign exit, traders said. Harris is expected to stick largely to Biden's foreign policy playbook on such issues as China and Ukraine. CBOT August soybeans SQ24 settled up 20-1/2 cents at $11.17-3/4 per bushel and most-active November soybeans SX24 ended up 32-3/4 cents at $10.68-3/4 a bushel. CBOT August soymeal SMQ24 ended up $6.80 at $343.60 per short ton, while December soymeal SMZ24 closed up $11.90 at $319.40 per short ton. CBOT August soyoil BOQ24 rose 0.44 cent to finish at 47 cents per pound, while December soyoil BOZ24 settled up 0.88 cent at 44.85 cents per pound. In U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report is expected to rate 68% of the nation's soybean crops in good-to-excellent condition in its weekly crop progress report, unchanged from the previous week, a Reuters poll of 13 analysts showed on Monday. The USDA on Monday reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 327,061 metric tons, toward the high end of trade expectations of 130,000 to 400,000 tons, according to trade analysts.

🔵💬 Market briefs in the morning by Esteban Moscariello: - Soybeans walk laterally and test both sides in Chicago this Wednesday (3). - The crisis continued yesterday (2) in Chicago during the second session of the week. - In the absence of new bullish elements since the USDA report last Thursday, corn prices corrected downwards, dragging other commodities in its wake. - Soybean sales accelerated as the benchmark contract broke through technical chart support at its 20- and 50-day moving averages and a recent low recorded last Thursday. - Tough competition from Brazil for export sales to the United States and concerns about demand from China, the main importer, still loom over the market. - Wheat also retreated following the publication on Monday (1) afternoon of the first national spring crop rating, which reached a five-year high of 56% "good to excellent". - The expected return of rains to the southern Great Plains is another positive factor for the market. - Attached USDA report for Brazil projects 2023/24 corn production at 122.0 Mt - The euro/dollar remains at its lowest level since mid-February, between 1.0740 and 1.0780, making European origins more competitive. - But in macroeconomic terms, crude oil is the main focus. Crude oil is now trading above $85 a barrel in New York, its highest level since late October. - In addition to the deterioration of Russia's oil infrastructure, tensions are now rising in the Middle East. Traders once again fear further tensions across the region, especially in oil-producing countries. - The latest figures on the increase in manufacturing activity in both China and the United States are also boosting investor confidence. - News that China asked importers to stop corn imports weighed on futures. - China is trying to increase domestic corn prices ahead of the planting season. The accompanying USDA report for China reduced China's imports for 2024/25 to 20 million tons. - The market is watching the pace of Ukrainian corn exports. - On Tuesday (2), the funds sold 4,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, 7,000 of corn, 5,000 of soybeans and 4,000 of soybean meal, and bought 1,000 of soybean oil. - We now estimate that the funds have a short position of 96,000 Chicago wheat contracts, 268,000 corn, 153,000 soybeans, 40,000 soybean meal and 6,000 soybean oil contracts. ➡️ - By Esteban Moscariello 📈📌

🔵💬 Market briefs in the morning by Esteban Moscariello: - Soybeans rise again this Friday (31st) in Chicago, after a week of pressure on prices. - Gains in wheat, corn, flour and oil contribute, but the central focus remains the climate in the corn belt. - The futures for both soybean meal and soybean oil rose almost 1% this Friday morning, as well as those for wheat and corn, acting as support and fuel for cereal prices in today's session. - The derivatives markets also had a week of intense volatility, highlighted by intense falls in soybean meal and good increases in soybean oil, both seeking to define their direction at this time. - Ukraine says it hit a fuel terminal in Port Kavkaz last night. The port located near the Kerch Strait is also used for transshipment of grain from small ships loaded in the shallow ports of the Azov Sea to the Panamaxes. - The $7.40/b zone for US wheat acted as a brake, causing a correction and a return close to the symbolic threshold of $7/b for September. It must be said that the advance was rapid and that the markets need a break. - To continue rising, wheat will need to be fed daily with new elements and, for the moment, the weather is the only catalyst. - The limited rains announced in southern Russia have been welcomed by financial operators, putting an end to almost daily purchases in recent weeks. - In Argentina, a delay in wheat plantings was reported, with 10% of the area planted compared to an average of 20% on that date. The USDA forecasts production for 24/25 of 17 Mt, slightly higher than the 15.91 Mt produced this year. - In the commercial sphere, the European Council yesterday adopted new customs tariffs on cereals imported from Russia and Belarus in order to stop the flow of imports from these countries. - All eyes are on Mexico, which is suffering one of its worst droughts. Although the USDA foresees a production of 25 Mt, we must be attentive to what happens next, which at the moment is causing a growing need for imports. - Technically, the Chicago corn market is looking for the July 2024 contract to find support in the $4.40 to $4.50 range, with upside resistance in the $4.75 to $4.85 range. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicated in its weekly report, released on Thursday (30), that the corn harvest reached 30.1% of the national surface, an increase of almost 2 p.p. in the weekly comparison. - The BCBA maintains its projections for Argentina's production unchanged, at 50.5 million tons of soybeans and 46.5 million tons of corn. - CFR China soybean prices bounced overnight. The cost of origination in Brazil continues to increase. Soybean processing factories in Brazil still have to cover part of July and August, and soybean supplies in key states are running out. - From a technical perspective for soybeans, a close below $12.00 in the July 2024 contract could trigger more selling as it would put the market below key moving averages. ➡️ By Esteban Moscariello -- 📌📈

GRAINS-Wheat near 3-week high amid concerns over Russian shipments CANBERRA, March 26 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures rose on Tuesday and were trading near a three-week high, supported by concerns that exports from top supplier Russia could be disrupted by a dispute between shippers and regulators over grain quality. Soybean and corn futures fell ahead of a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) planting intentions report due on Thursday that could move the markets. FUNDAMENTALS The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 was up 0.3% at $5.56-1/2 a bushel by 0004 GMT after reaching $5.67 on Monday, its highest since March 4. CBOT soybeans Sv1 were down 0.3% at $12.06-1/4 a bushel and corn Cv1 fell 0.2% to $4.37 a bushel. All three contracts are near their lowest levels since 2020 amid plentiful supply and speculators are betting on further price falls. Wheat fell as low as $5.23-1/2 this month. Russian authorities are preventing the processing and shipment of about 400,000 metric tons of grains, the owner of one of Russia's largest grain exporters, TD RIF, said. Authorities say their action follows complaints from importing countries about the non-compliance of Russian grain quality with quarantine requirements. Traders were already concerned about the impact on Ukrainian wheat exports of Russian attacks on Ukraine's port and energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, winter grain crops are in mediocre condition in large parts of the European Union, EU crop monitoring service MARS said. However, huge supply from Russia - the biggest exporter - has driven down wheat prices and analysts predict that shipments could set a new March record of 5 million tons this month. Elsewhere, consultants AgRural said Brazil's 2023/24 soybean harvest had reached 69% of the planted area, as of last Thursday, slightly below the 70% seen at the same time a year earlier. Traders are waiting for a USDA planting intentions report due on Thursday, with analysts predicting an increase in soybean area and declines in corn and wheat area. MARKETS NEWS U.S. stocks lost ground at the start of a holiday-shortened week on Monday as investors positioned themselves ahead of inflation data.

🔵💬 Market Briefs in the Morning by Esteban Moscariello: - Soybeans are up again this Wednesday in Chicago and, in a volatile week, recover some of the latest losses. - The market continues to be driven by volatility in derivatives, which has supported prices. Soybean oil and soybean meal futures have risen, with increases of more than 1%, which has favored the price of soybeans. - US soybeans are starting to become more expensive for buyers, especially in China, where offers in the Gulf and in the PNW have risen rapidly, increasing premiums by more than 25 cents per bushel from the lows. - In addition, premiums for old crop in Brazil have also risen due to the influence of prices in the US. - The price of US crude has fallen to levels close to $66 per barrel, due to the reduction of demand forecasts by OPEC by 2.11 million barrels per day. - The week is marked by several key reports, such as those from StatCan, MPOB, CONAB and the USDA, which could influence the markets, with the main focus on the still uncertain demand. - China plays a key role in the markets, after announcing measures on barley and sorghum imports and launching an anti-dumping procedure on Canadian canola. - In Europe, only 15% of the agricultural export target has been reached, with France being a relevant factor with non-EU exports of only 500,000 tonnes in July. - Traders are beginning to pay attention to sowing conditions in the northern hemisphere, with concerns about dry weather in the Black Sea region, which is generating debate. - Volatility continues to dominate the oilseed sector, particularly affected by the difficulties of canola after the Chinese announcement, which is also impacting rapeseed in Europe. - The debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris marks the beginning of an intense electoral race towards the presidential elections in November. - If Donald Trump is elected, there is concern about his stance to impose tariffs on imported products from China, which would affect global markets. - The automotive sector, especially electric cars, is reconfiguring trade flows globally, influencing the relationship between the US and China. - In the agricultural field, 5% of the corn acreage has already been harvested in the US, with expectations of high yields. - Corn production in the US will be key to determining whether prices in Chicago remain above $4 per bushel. - November soybean futures resumed their decline with a reversal to the downside and closed below initial support at $10. - Brazil is expected to export between 5.50-6.50 Mt of corn during the month of September. - The USDA maintains its projection of corn exports for Brazil at 50 Mt for the marketing year, while private analysts foresee that final exports will be 45 Mt. - It is estimated that funds sold between 6-7,000 soybean contracts, 4,000 flour contracts and 4,000 oil contracts. ➡️ By Esteban Moscariello -- 📌📈

GRAINS-Wheat falls on supply pressure, soybeans recover from one-month low SINGAPORE, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat eased on Monday as ample supplies pressured prices, with the market giving up earlier gains that were triggered by worries over shipments from the Black Sea region. Soybeans rose after dropping to their lowest in more than one month, while corn slid. "The wheat market has been supported by escalations in the Black Sea region but it has come down now as there is no major issue with supplies," said one grains trader in Singapore. "Prices will move higher if we actually see exports getting impacted." The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1lost 0.1% to $5.64-1/4 a bushel, as of 0431 GMT, and corn Cv1 fell 0.2% to $4.34-1/2 a bushel. Soybeans Sv1 gained 0.4% at $9.87-1/2 a bushel after dropping to its lowest since Oct. 21 on Friday. Russia last week launched a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro in response to the U.S. and the UK allowing Kyiv to strike Russian territory with advanced Western weapons, and warned that more could follow. The strike prompted short covering, as it raised worries over grain supplies from the Black Sea region. The International Grains Council last week trimmed its forecast for 2024/25 global wheat production by 2 million metric tons to 796 million tons, driven partly by a diminished outlook for the European Union. Soybeans touched a more than one-month low on Friday, pressured by favourable South American weather and China-Brazil trade deals, which could further reduce U.S. agricultural exports to the Asian country. China granted Brazil permission to export sorghum, fresh grapes, sesame and fish products to Chinese buyers, the Latin American country's agriculture ministry said on Wednesday. In Argentina, 2024/25 soybean planting progressed by 16 percentage points in the past week, reaching 35.8% of the 18.6 million hectares projected for the season, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Large speculators cut their net long position in Chicago Board of Trade corn futures in the week to Nov. 19, regulatory data released on Friday showed. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed that noncommercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, increased their net short position in CBOT wheat and increased their net short position in soybeans.