Citadel Global’s Post

𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬, 𝐨𝐫 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐩𝐭 𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐛𝐲 𝐚 𝐰𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲? 🌪🌊 🅃🄷🄴 🄲🄾🅄🄽🅃🄳🄾🅆🄽 🄸🅂 🄾🄽 ⏳️ On November 5️⃣, Americans will vote to decide their next president, with Trump and Harris neck and neck in a thrilling race. Every vote counts as exit polls could weight the U.S. Treasury yields and the Dollar that could pressure the Rupee and other EM FX Rates. 💰 Exit polls for a Harris win is expect to suggest policy continuity and a potentially softer Fed stance; while a Trump victory could keep interest rates high, which could boost the Dollar further.⚡️ Trump’s “𝕬𝖒𝖊𝖗𝖎𝖈𝖆-𝖋𝖎𝖗𝖘𝖙” trade agenda promises sweeping changes, including 10-20% tariffs on foreign goods and a phase-out of key Chinese imports—an overhaul that could shake global trade dynamics. 🎢 Despite the potential for a Dollar rally, recent dips from 104.63 to 103.63 indicate uncertainty. Watch for key levels: a drop below 103.42 could target 102.88-102.34, while a rise above 104.67 might reach 105.20-105.88.🌟 Brace yourself as the Dollar navigates turbulent waters with the election and Fed policy looming large!🏛 #ForexMasters #ForexPower #FXInsight #FXGenius #FXMarketTrends #ForexHub #FXDaily

S&P Futures are higher this morning. Federal Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak before the Senate today. This evening President Biden will be giving the State of the Union speech. Multiple key earnings announcements are scheduled for release after the bell today (AVGO, COST, DOCU, GPS & MRVL). In Europe, traders are awaiting commentary on monetary policy from the ECB this morning. The ECB is expected to hold rates steady. Oil prices are falling due to economic data out of China and the lack of a clear stimulus package from Chinese officials. https://lnkd.in/eQMXAg_p

FX Daily: Trive’s Week Ahead Insights: Stay informed with our detailed analysis and projections. Check out the latest trends and key levels in today's report. A second Trump term may strengthen the USD and weaken the EUR, especially with a Republican Congress. Proposed tariffs, supply chain restrictions, and potential tax cuts would drive dollar gains and boost U.S. inflation, while pressuring EUR/USD toward parity by 2025. This scenario could force the ECB to cut rates to support eurozone growth. Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/gEC2rJks #TriveInternational #neverstandstill

The US election results have sent shockwaves through global financial markets. With a Trump victory, we're seeing:⁣ ⁣ ✅Dollar Surge: The US dollar has rallied significantly.⁣ ✅Stock Market Boom: US stocks are hitting record highs.⁣ ✅Commodity Price Decline: Concerns about potential tariffs have led to a drop in commodity prices.⁣ ✅Currency Impacts: The euro and yen have weakened, while the Mexican peso is under pressure.⁣ ⁣ What are your thoughts on the potential economic and market implications of Trump's victory?⁣ ⁣ Read the full article here⁣ https://lnkd.in/evMSY37j ⁣ #USElection #Trump #GlobalMarkets #Economy #Finance

FX Daily: Trive’s Week Ahead Insights: Stay informed with our detailed analysis and projections. Check out the latest trends and key levels in today's report. A second Trump term may strengthen the USD and weaken the EUR, especially with a Republican Congress. Proposed tariffs, supply chain restrictions, and potential tax cuts would drive dollar gains and boost U.S. inflation while pressuring EUR/USD toward parity by 2025. This scenario could force the ECB to cut rates to support eurozone growth. Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/gpXBAXJn #TriveInternational #neverstandstill

FX Daily: Trive’s Week Ahead Insights: Stay informed with our detailed analysis and projections. Check out the latest trends and key levels in today's report. A second Trump term may strengthen the USD and weaken the EUR, especially with a Republican Congress. Proposed tariffs, supply chain restrictions, and potential tax cuts would drive dollar gains and boost U.S. inflation, while pressuring EUR/USD toward parity by 2025. This scenario could force the ECB to cut rates to support eurozone growth. Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/gj6x67Eq #TriveInternational #neverstandstill

Things That Stick Out: Friday Edition A quick observation on Treasuries since we squared our long yield curve trade a few days after the November 5 election. See: Things That Stick Out: Trump Trade Edition In the 2 ½ weeks since there’s been a steady drumbeat of the ‘Trump trade’ across all markets. In bonds, the assumption is that Trump’s tilt toward tariffs and deficit spending will feed straight to higher inflation. Given that, one would expect the long end to bear the brunt of hotter future price expectations, steepening the curve further. Funny though, that’s not what has happened. After recent stabs at the upside, both 5/30s and 2/10s are either at, or flatter than on election day. Curve-flattening is not necessarily a directional signal to get long bonds, but when you throw in today’s sharp break in German, UK, and (to a lesser extent) Chinese bond yields, we sure wouldn’t be short. See original IGM post here: https://lnkd.in/eQ_tAb2C IGM | Informa Connect #inflation #deficits #tariffs #treasuries #bonds #financialmarkets

Trump's Rising Odds Ignite Dollar Surge Ahead of Election Increasing confidence in Donald Trump's potential victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election is significantly impacting the financial markets, particularly the U.S. dollar. Reports indicate that markets are pricing in a 70% chance of a Trump win, with Polymarket attributing a 64% probability to his presidency and PredictIt estimating it at 58%. As anticipation builds, the dollar has appreciated nearly 3% against the euro over the past month, positioning it for its best performance since 2022. Analysts from Standard Chartered note that approximately 60% of the dollar's gains in October are linked to rising expectations of a Trump win, with market sentiment shifting as polling shows a tight race between Trump and his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris. The prospect of Trump's return to power raises concerns about a return to protectionist trade policies, including proposed tariffs on imports from Europe and China. Such measures could strengthen the dollar while exerting downward pressure on the euro, as analysts warn that tariffs directly influence exchange rates. For instance, Goldman Sachs predicts that broad tariffs could lead to significant shifts in monetary policy, potentially strengthening the dollar by increasing inflationary pressures. In addition to electoral dynamics, other factors contributing to the dollar's strength include the resilience of the U.S. economy and a robust jobs report from earlier this month. Market observers are closely watching how these elements interact with potential policy changes under a Trump administration, which could include tax cuts and increased tariffs—factors likely to shape both domestic economic conditions and international currency markets in the weeks ahead. #Trump2024 #Election2024 #USDollar #Forex #MarketTrends #PoliticalRisk #Investing #EconomicOutlook #FinancialMarkets #CurrencyStrength #Tariffs #TradePolicy #USEconomy #JobGrowth #Inflation #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #PredictIt #DollarStrength #EuroWeakness #MarketSentiment #FiscalPolicy #GlobalEconomy #ElectionImpact #MarketVolatility #InvestorSentiment #TrumpEffect

📈 The Trump victory is obviously driving market sentiment with the dollar and US stock markets strengthening, and rate forecasters expecting less aggressive rate cuts from the Fed. 🤔 Markets remain extremely nervous as we weigh the economic impact of Trump’s policies, and the implications of trade tariffs on global growth and increasing risks of a global trade war. ✂ The US central bank still cut rates as expected, though fewer cuts are now forecast for 2025 as the new administration’s policies will likely prove inflationary. 🏦 The Bank of England also cut rates on an 8-1 split vote, with further easing priced through next year to a terminal rate of 4% in H2. 💶 The euro remains under pressure with US trade tariffs expected to weigh on the bloc’s economic growth and drive a lower European interest rate outlook. 💱 On the exchanges volatility remains extreme and conviction levels remain low as markets digest the implications of this week's unprecedented events. See more insight and analysis - https://lnkd.in/dJHH-ag5

November 3, 2024 US Election and Rate Cuts: What's Next for the Global Economy? As the US election approaches and potentially sets a new course for global trade, central banks are preparing to cut interest rates. With economic growth slowing and employment data weak, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by a quarter point this week. A Trump victory could lead to a shift in trade policy and new tariffs, adding to global economic tensions. #squarebillet #slabs #bloom #wire #scrap #lead #hotrolledcoil #hotrolledsheet #profilepipes #purchase #trade #warehousing #logistics #metallurgy #business #supplychainmanagement #privateinvestor #investmentfunds #businessinvestment #america #europe #asia #metals #steelmarket #analysis #metallurgy #LinkedInNews