Crystal Shore Alpha’s Post

Big if's remain; nevertheless, the potential is broader than in the last decades. Biggest challenges are implementing rule-of-law and crafting a set of laws that foster economic development and innovation. #GoMexico. That being said, if the next Government achieves even mediocre success, the potential for good returns on investments seems high.

Week 30, 2024 in Latin America. Take a glimpse at what is happening in the region. This week's topics include: - 10 trends in the Latin American Economy - Venezuelans are set to vote in a presidential election on July 28 - Credit Saison committed $100 million to Brazil 🔍: https://buff.ly/3YfJMYr #markets #business #technology #currentaffairs #investments #latam #latinamerica

Claudia Sheinbaum is set to inherit a government with a mix of economic stability and concerns about legal certainty. While Mexico’s economic fundamentals, such as controlled inflation and fiscal discipline, remain solid, there are growing worries about legal and regulatory environments. Investors are particularly focused on how policies under Sheinbaum's leadership will impact business confidence and foreign investment, especially in key sectors like energy and infrastructure. #Mexico #ClaudiaSheinbaum #EconomicPolicy #LegalCertainty #Government

As the US presidential election approaches, increased volatility in financial markets is affecting Mexico's economy outlook. The peso recently dipped, reflecting these shifts, yet Mexico's Finance Ministry points to a robust growth rate of 1.5% for 3Q24, surpassing expectations. #MexicoBusinessNews #MexicoEconomy #USPresidentialElection #MarketVolatility #Finance #Growth #EmergingMarkets #ExchangeRate

⚖ Mexico Election and the Markets: Peso and Investment Strategies in Focus. 🚦 Mexico's recent election results, with Claudia Sheinbaum's wider-than-expected victory, have sent shockwaves through the financial markets. 🤔 Investment Strategies Under Review Financial institutions like Morgan Stanley are reviewing their investment strategies in light of these developments. Sectors exposed to the investment cycle could see underperformance, while consumer staples might offer some refuge. Investors are likely to look for opportunities outside Mexico and avoid stocks with concession risks, such as those in mining 👷🏼♀️ , telecom ⌨ , and infrastructure 🛣 . 🛑 Peso Volatility Expected, Trust-Building Needed. The Mexican Peso (MXN) is expected to experience increased volatility in the near term. The new administration will need to embark on a multi-month trust-building exercise with market participants to regain confidence. This process could be further complicated by the upcoming US elections, potentially leading to a period of heightened caution for Mexican authorities. 🔔 Sovereign Credit: Higher Risk Premia on the Horizon While risk premia for Mexican sovereign and Pemex bonds haven't reached historic highs, they are likely to rise as uncertainty increases. Investors are advised to wait for better entry points before buying these bonds. 📶 The Bottom Line: A Cautious Approach for Mexican Investments The Mexican election outcome has injected a dose of uncertainty into the country's economic prospects. Investors should adopt a cautious approach, closely monitor policy developments, and adjust their investment strategies accordingly. Diversification outside of Mexico and a focus on less-cyclical sectors could be prudent measures. Stay tuned for more market news and trends! #BuildYourTrust #FinBrightFinancialServices #MexicanElections #Markets

Strategic election in Mexico tomorrow… The reason that Mexico’s capitalists are not investing productively, despite a high profit share and low taxes, is that the profitability of Mexican capital has been in secular decline and so productive investment has been rejected in favour of real estate and financial speculation. And much of the profitability has ended up in American companies.

Ruchir Sharma with a sobering verdict on Europe. "A widening transatlantic gap is inspiring glee in the US and angst in Europe. Though their per capita income levels were similar a couple of decades ago, growth (in constant dollars) has been twice as fast since 2010 in the US than in the UK and the EU’s Big 4 economies — Germany, France, Italy and Spain." This is what happens when the economic direction of a continent is in the hands of regulators. It's like handing over the management of corporations to controllers and compliance officers.  What's more, the political players at EU level are second- to third-rate politicians who have generally had mixed careers in their home countries (such as the recently reappointed EU President, who attracted attention in her last national job as Minister of Defense primarily due to her excessive use of external consultants).

Mexico's economic landscape is characterized by a delicate balance of opportunities and challenges. The benefits of nearshoring and robust trade relationships provide a strong foundation for growth. However, addressing economic deceleration, fiscal challenges, and political uncertainties is essential for sustainable development.

Argentina vs the World or The Power of Will... The graph depicts a five year trend of 3 national stock indices (Argentina,Germany, Greece). Greece since late 2023 seems stationary but thats not the purpose of this post. This post showcases that the will to implement sound but unpopular (depending the audience) reforms can have drastic and immediate result in capital growth and economic climate shift. Argentina currently implements a rapid liberal agenta that focuses on private investment, privatization and control public spending among others. This rapid change is depicted through massive growth in capital markets that currently hoovers above the German index. Long term this policy could significantly change the economic environment of Argentina and the wellfare of its citizens. Once you realize the state should be run just as an ordinary family firm (control expenses, rationalize operations and be competitive and adjustable to the reality) everyone thrives.