Daniel Siesser’s Post

This is well worth your time! Monetary ignorance, monetary transmission, and a great time for macroeconomics John H. Cochrane "Throughout all of macroeconomics, the economic damage of recessions comes entirely because prices are sticky. If prices were flexible, monetary policy would result in costless inflation, instantly, and no unemployment. Economists and central bankers take “stickiness” as given and go on to advocate complex policies that take advantage of them. But if sticky prices are the key economic problem causing all the pain of recessions, why does essentially nobody advocate policies to unstick prices? Instead we have intervention after intervention to make prices more sticky: price controls, rent controls, union support, and so on. Similarly, if bond markets are routinely “dysfunctional,” should we not figure out why and fix them, rather than use this as an excuse for central banks to go on a shopping spree?"

In this article, I have tried to mathematically prove Milton Friedman's famous claim: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in the quantity of output.” Using Irving Fisher's famous equation of exchange (MV=PY), my findings suggest that while Friedman was right to define inflation as always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon but he was only partially correct in saying that it can only occur when the growth in the quantity of money exceeds the growth in the growth in output. More accurately, inflation can only occur when the supply of money exceeds the demand for money. Please read, like, share and subscribe to my Substack page. #economics #inflation #miltonfriedman #macroeconomics #money #monetarism #marketmonetarism #austrianeconomics

Inflation numbers came out today for the month of June and are lower than expected at 2.7% How do you think this will impact the interest rate decision. Next week? Let me know in the comments. #inflation #interestrates #economics #business #realestate #chriscucoch #cucochteam @globeandmail #reportonbusiness

Fantastic Fed In a move largely unexpected just days ago, the Fed cut the Fed funds rate by 50bps! This is an overt acknowledgement that the inflation battle is over, and that rising unemployment is now public enemy #1. While the Fed should have cut earlier, that doesn’t detract from this gutsy call. Fed policymakers expect rates to bottom at 2.875% in 2026. That’s probably too high. Pre-Covid the rate was 1.5%. www.econ70.com

The National Association for Business Economics released a survey that predicted inflation to be 2.6%! After their February 2024 poll came in with a result of 2.1%, this doesn't seem to be a survey worth taking seriously. It seems like almost every inflation prediction has been wrong and I can't help but feel that it is because most people are saying what they wish would happen. At least they aren't saying it's transitory. #apartmentinvesting #realestateinvesting #inflation

Is relief on the horizon for the commercial real estate market? All eyes are on monthly inflation data, and the latest June release delivered some positive news. Explore what leading economists are saying about these trends and potential shifts in Fed policy. Read the full article today at https://lnkd.in/egv_2jyz #commercialrealestate #inflation #cre #economics

This article gives a concise overview of the CPI statistics released today. Sharing with those watching economic numbers. -BL- #economics #consumerinsights #LifeKPI

Deciphering economic prospects is always challenging. As the market speculates on the timing of the first rate cut, we share observations on the actual economic data that is perhaps most relevant regarding as to when the Fed makes its move. https://bit.ly/4acKKHP #CapitalMarkets #Investing #Economics

Structure Matters (SM): Signs of stability in prices could be a further signal that inflation is stable, but isn’t necessarily a sign that prices are fair and manageble. What do u think? #Macroeconomics #future #income #inflation #innovation

Check out the TD Economics: The Weekly Bottom Line - Our summary of recent economic events and what to expect in the weeks ahead. http://spr.ly/6042efoXK