De Nederlandsche Bank’s Post

Thrilled to announce my latest publication in Macroeconomic Dynamics: "A granular investigation on the stability of money demand" 📊💼 Coauthored with Victor Valcarcel, this research resorts and reexamines the evidence surrounding the long-standing controversy of money demand stability. Our key findings: 1️⃣ We revisit the money demand controversy using Divisia monetary aggregates for the U.S., comparing them with simple-sum counterparts. 2️⃣ Our innovative approach: a granular analysis of various monetary assets and their associated user costs. 3️⃣ Results show simple-sum measures only work well pre-1980, while Divisia aggregates provide a more reliable interpretation of money demand. 4️⃣ Main contribution: We demonstrate that money demand is stable across all subsamples when using proper measurements of monetary quantity and holding costs. 🔓 Thanks to the Cambridge Open Equity Initiative (COEI), this paper is available as open access. Read the full paper here: https://lnkd.in/gpBeYjkQ #Economics #MonetaryPolicy #MoneyDemand #OpenAccess #MacroeconomicDynamics

🔍 Jesus Crespo Cuaresma and I are very excited to share our latest research published in Economic Modelling on sovereign yield dynamics in the Eurozone! 📊 Our study explores key factors influencing yield synchronization, revealing surprising insights. Did you know that inflation rate synchronization is a robust predictor, even more than traditional economic fundamentals? 🔮 Plus, in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we show that accounting for the most relevant economic fundamentals can lead to improvements in the directional accuracy of the forecasts of yield synchronization. 🚀 Our findings have important implications for policymakers and economists. Check out the full paper for details! Link to the paper: https://lnkd.in/dF32FqYk #Eurozone #Research #SovereignYields #Economics #Forecasting

John Maynard Keynes saw economics as a blend of mathematics, history, statesmanship, and philosophy; he considered the field to be  a moral science in tune with society's changing dynamics. What prescience! With challenges like climate change, social inequality, and geopolitical conflicts, Keynes’s vision of the multiple functions and applications of economics is more relevant than ever, asserts Gita Bhatt, Head of Policy Communications at the International Monetary Fund, in a new blog. Bhatt dives deeply into the discourse of economics to explore how this academic field, which underlies many actions of global development leaders, can evolve to meet the crises now facing humankind and the planet.  Ms. Bhatt discusses how >>> > Nobel laureate @Professor Sir Angus Deaton emphasizes the need for mainstream economists to reconsider their assumptions, while considering the impacts of power and prioritizing values other than efficiency; > @Jayati Ghosh of the University of Massachusetts Amherst highlights economics’ diversity deficit, which curbs its collective capacity for innovative thinking; and > Harvard University Kennedy School of Government's @Dani Rodrik and Princeton University’s Atif Mian call for tailored solutions to such modern challenges as climate change and the global debt cycle. As grantmakers, in the interests of getting the greatest development bang for each donor buck, we are often prodded to think of “efficiency,” when what we really need to measure is “effectiveness” and “durability.”  But Ms. Bhatt is correct: We must revisit the concept of “efficiency” and the metrics by which it is measured in light of the values we purport to hold, and the ways in which traditional power structures have undermined growth in poorer countries. Read Gita Bhatt’s blog here: https://lnkd.in/eeu5bk3Q #Economics #21stCenturyChallenges #economicjustice #internationaldevelopment #powershift

The Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI are organizing a conference on the topic of heterogeneous agent models in macroeconomics. Submitted papers cover (but are not limited to) the following areas: ·        Distributional aspects of monetary policy ·        Open-economy models with heterogeneous agents ·        Firms heterogeneity, networks and macroeconomic dynamics ·        Household heterogeneity in the high-inflation environment ·        Interactions between fiscal and monetary policy in a heterogeneous-agent framework The keynote speakers are Vincent Sterk (University College London and CEPR): Cost-of-Living Shocks and Government Policies; Jonathan Heathcote (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and CEPR): Tax and Transfer Progressivity at the U.S. State Level, and Adrien Auclert (Stanford University and NBER): When do Endogenous Portfolios Matter for HANK? CERGE-EI will be represented at the conference by Associate Professors Marek Kapička (Director of CERGE-EI) and Ctirad Slavík. The Thursday poster session will also feature CERGE-EI’s PhD candidates Ante Sterc (Tax Structures and Fiscal Multipliers in HANK Models, together with Othman Bouabdallah and Pascal Jacquinot) and Danilo Stojanovic (The 2003 Tax Reform and Corporate Payout Policy in the U.S.). The full programme is available at: https://lnkd.in/ez9uYi5p

This looks so interesting and useful to incorporate contemporary macroeconomic policy issues into teaching! It was very much needed 👌 https://lnkd.in/ehZW7kZM

Join our "Introduction to Macroeconomics" course, with Dr Paul Middleditch. Course objectives: - Demonstrate knowledge of major macroeconomic events and pathologies, outlining the issues faced by policymakers in the formulation of policy responses to economic shocks. - Demonstrate a detailed understanding of key macroeconomic models used to analyze economic disturbances and economic policy responses. - Understand and articulate the role of the central bank in financial markets and in the creation of high powered money in the economy. - Critically analyze the role of the government in the market for goods and services, as a policymaker who faces a trade-off between economic stability and the intergenerational allocation of national debt. - Appraise the role of the exchange rate for the profile of international trade and understand the concepts of the exchange rate transmission mechanism and international currency wars. 📅 Dates: 23rd of September to 4th of November. 💻 Online course. 📣 Limited places. https://lnkd.in/eBx8hSjQ

Markets are abuzz with the "Trump trade" again, but what will #inflation and #Fed policy really look like in a prospective second #Trump term? I suspect much different from what the consensus expects. And is the consensus also ignoring compelling opportunities around the November and December Fed meetings? As always, Thematic Markets offers you value-added insights you'll find nowhere else. Why haven't you subscribed yet?

New research on the path of Fed rates from here and the opportunities it presents in markets! How quickly will the #Fed back away from its policy error in September? "Revealed preference" and hard limits offer answers in the latest research from Thematic Markets. https://lnkd.in/eyWBGGtc #FederalReserve #interestrates #economics

February #CPI data is likely to support a 25bps cut from #Banxico, although monetary policy will remain contractionary throughout 2024. Read more at https://lnkd.in/gE-jET4Y --- Continuum Economics is an independent Macro, Policy, and Financial Markets research firm. --- #assetmanagement #financialmarkets #macroeconomics #capitalmarkets #economy #mexico #latam #bancodemexico

Join our "Introduction to Macroeconomics" course, with Dr Paul Middleditch. Course objectives: - Demonstrate knowledge of major macroeconomic events and pathologies, outlining the issues faced by policymakers in the formulation of policy responses to economic shocks. - Demonstrate a detailed understanding of key macroeconomic models used to analyze economic disturbances and economic policy responses. - Understand and articulate the role of the central bank in financial markets and in the creation of high powered money in the economy. - Critically analyze the role of the government in the market for goods and services, as a policymaker who faces a trade-off between economic stability and the intergenerational allocation of national debt. - Appraise the role of the exchange rate for the profile of international trade and understand the concepts of the exchange rate transmission mechanism and international currency wars. 📅 Dates: 23rd of September to 4th of November. 💻 Online course. 📣 Limited places. https://lnkd.in/eBx8hSjQ