Diego Zancan Bonomo’s Post

🟢 UPDATE! Our #2024ElectionGuide features new content: “Three Key Questions Ahead of Election Day in Mexico” by Alexandra Helfgott! 🇲🇽 “In just two days, Mexico will hold arguably the most historic elections since the country’s transition from one-party hegemonic rule in the 2000 elections. There are three key questions to consider in the context of Mexico’s upcoming elections and what they mean for the future of politics in Mexico. 1️⃣ Is this election cycle a referendum on AMLO and his party? 2️⃣ Are youth voters rejecting Mexico’s traditional political parties in favor of Morena and MC? 3️⃣ Will Mexico’s democratic institutions withstand the pressure and protect democracy, despite AMLO’s best efforts to dismantle them?.” The legacies they will set in motion are even more significant than the election results themselves. Only time will tell what Mexico will become following this election cycle. The challenges in Mexico are abundant and diverse, but so are the opportunities. Mexico is on the precipice of a new chapter, and it’s up to the discretion of its leadership at all levels of government to steer the country in a direction that benefits its people both in the short and long term while promoting and protecting democratic institutions and traditions. Stay informed on what is at stake in Mexico’s most significant electoral cycle! 💡 https://lnkd.in/e5FxASPA #Mexico #2024Elections #Challenges #YouthVote #Democracy #Institutions #Morena #NewChapter

[NEW ARTICLE] [BRAZIL MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS] In this new article, Giulia Branco Spiess explains why Brazil's 2024 municipal elections can give us important insights (not predictions) into what’s ahead! ⚡ We can highlight a few conclusions from this year's elections: - The results underscored the undeniable strength of the Centrao, a traditional bloc of centrist, center-right, and right-wing parties. This means that no Brazilian president will be able to effectively govern without the support of the group. - Former President Bolsonaro is no longer the undisputed leader of the right. New figures are emerging within the group, which now appears divided. - On the left and center-left, Lula’s PT, in decline over the last decade, won in 252 cities, ranking ninth in municipal control but far from its peak in 2012, when it controlled 635 cities. This outcome underscores an old challenge: the party still needs to reinvent itself besides Lula’s figure. - We can expect gestures and cabinet reshuffles in the Lula Administration in the Lula Administration to accommodate Centrao interests.

In the first electoral contest since Poland’s parliamentary elections last October, the local elections held on 7 April have been hailed as a victory by both the senior ruling Civic Coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the lead opposition Law and Justice party (PiS) of Jarosław Kaczyński. Although the lead opposition PiS secured the largest share of overall votes (34.3% against KO’s 30.6%), Tusk’s party – despite failing to overtake PiS as the largest party – emerged victorious from the majority of regional elections. KO won in nine of Poland’s sixteen regions and so is on track to form coalition majorities in 11 of the 16 regional assemblies. KO candidate and incumbent Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski also secured re-election with a convincing result in the Polish capital, while other largest cities will remain under opposition control. Looking ahead, Trzaskowski is seen as a possible contender for the next Presidential elections in mid-2025. Critics argue that, during the early months of the third Tusk Government, politics has overshadowed policy, given the new government’s extensive focus on sweeping away the remnants of the PiS era. Heading into the parliamentary term, policy initiatives are likely to receive more attention, but this will most likely come only after the EU parliamentary elections. While Aretera expects Poland’s ideologically and structurally diverse ruling coalition to remain united by their staunch opposition to PiS, political stability may be impacted by the aftermath of both the local and EU elections, potentially along ideological rifts between the junior coalition Lewica and the rest of the ruling bloc. See below for our full overview: https://lnkd.in/dYHXnarw Sign up via our website to receive further analytical updates about the CEE/SEE region and Central Asia.

On October 26, Georgia will hold its 10th parliamentary elections since its independence from the Soviet Union. After a tumultuous, years-long effort to reform the electoral system, the rules have again changed. For the first time in the country’s history, all 150 seats of the nation’s unicameral legislature will be elected under a fully proportional system. This means all seats will be awarded based on the total percentage of votes a party receives in a single, nation-wide election. It remains to be seen whether smaller opposition parties will meaningfully increase their representation in Parliament or if the institution will remain controlled by the current ruling party, Georgian Dream (GD).  To support a free and fair electoral process, the International Republican Institute (IRI) has launched a long-term election observation mission for the upcoming elections. An international team of 20 observers and a mission director deployed across ten regions of Georgia to assess the pre-electoral environment, meet with electoral stakeholders, political parties and civil society organizations, and analyze the effects of the new electoral system. A short-term observation team will oversee the election-day proceedings to support and report on its credibility, legitimacy, and transparency. Read more about the upcoming election and our mission here: https://lnkd.in/e-2zzc-z

In five years, bear right. In elections across Europe this week, voters from the EU’s 27 member states moved the European Parliament rightward—though not as far as many expected they would. The center-right European People’s Party is still the Parliament’s largest bloc, gaining four seats from the last election in 2019. The populist-right European Conservatives & Reformists gained 11 seats, but the EPP won’t have to work with them to form a governing majority. Instead, they look almost certain to rely on their current coalition partners, the centrist Renew Europe and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats, each of which lost about 20 seats. Still, the populist right showed its power in Germany and France: Germany’s neo-fascist Alternative für Deutschland finished second nationally, and France’s National Rally nearly doubled the tally of Renaissance, the ruling party of President Emanuel Macron—who responded to the lopsided defeat by calling for new parliamentary elections. For more than a decade, parties of the populist right have been gaining power in Europe—and are now either taking control or poised to win elections throughout the continent. As we’ve explored here at The Signal: Italy’s populist-right Fratelli d’Italia, founded by former members of the Fascist Party, won elections in September 2022; the Dutch populist Geert Wilders won his country’s elections last November, though he has yet to form a governing coalition; and in 2023, Germany’s AfD became the second most popular political party in the country, despite its increasingly hostile rhetoric. In power, though, the populist right has also now experienced defeat, after Poland’s Law & Justice Party—which came to power 10 years ago—was ousted from control last October by a coalition of opposition parties. There’s still no evidence that this generally surprising result might represent any counter-trend in Europe—but here, as in India, democracy can always defy predictions and storylines. #currentaffairsstrangeworld #europe #politics #democracy https://lnkd.in/e5qEmjVM

🚀 We have something new going on at The Signal -- notes. A free, regularly updated curated feed of original contributions, new articles, highlighted articles from our archives, and more to come ... Check it out & let us know what you'd want to see as we innovate and iterate on this new format. 🙏 #currentaffairsstrangeworld #productlaunch #giveusallyourfeedback

SOUTH AFRICA will have three ballot papers at this year's election South Africa election date is getting closer and closer. But this year works a bit differently, as voters will have to mark their crosses on three ballot papers, rather than two as was done in the past. In previous elections, there were only two ballots – a national ballot for the National Assembly (Parliament) and a provincial ballot for the provincial legislature of a province. Now, the third ballot will be for the regional seats reserved for each of the regions in the National Assembly. Because a region refers to the same territorial area as a province, the terms ‘regional’ and ‘provincial’ are simply to distinguish between the seats reserved for that region in Parliament (regional seats) and seats in the provincial legislatures of that province (provincial seats). E.g In the Western Cape, voters will receive at their voting stations: A national ballot – this ballot is the same for the whole country where you vote for a political party only. A Western Cape regional ballot – this a vote for an independent or party to fill the regional seats reserved in Parliament for the Western Cape. A Western Cape provincial ballot – this is a vote for an independent or party for the Western Cape provincial legislature. The change has come as a result of the electoral amendment act that provides for the inclusion of independent candidates to run for office as a member of parliament in the national assembly. So, the 400 seats in the National Assembly are filled as follows: A total of 200 are reserved for the regional seats. Each province gets a number of regional seats based on the number of voters in that province. Independents and parties contest for these seats. The remaining 200 seats in the National Assembly are filled by lists of political parties only, as independents are already catered for on the regional ballot(s).

Elections #France June 2024. Who are #NFP? Nouveau Front Populair/New Popular Front/Neue Volksfront. Wiki: "On 9 June 2024, the 2024 European Parliament elections took place with exit polls indicating that National Rally had achieved twice that Macron's Renaissance. NUPES did not take part under one ballot, but under multiple. Responding to the underperformance in the elections, Macron dissolved the parliament to call for snap parliamentary elections, with the first round scheduled for 30 June, and a second round for 7 July.[7] Following the announcement of fresh elections, there were calls from some to renew NUPES. Leftist politician François Ruffin called on all left-wing parties, including the Greens, to form a "Popular Front" to "avoid the worst, and to win".[8] Socialist Party First Secretary Olivier Faure called to "create a popular front against the far right" but dismissed the left working with Macron's policies as "totally illusory".[9] Late on 10 June, the New Popular Front was announced with an intent to "build an alternative to Emmanuel Macron and fight the racist project of the extreme right" in the upcoming elections.[10][11] The name intends to harken back on the "old" Popular Front that formed in the 1930s.[12][failed verification] The alliance agreed to a single joint slate of candidates going into the first round of the elections.[13]? " Prof. Dr. Franz-Alois Fischer https://lnkd.in/e32MqHNM

📢 Happy to share my latest article for the Wilson Center Brazil Institute: "Economic Optimism Meets Political Complexity: Insights from Brazil’s 2024 Municipal Elections." I explain why the 2024 municipal elections, especially after Bolsonaro's defeat in 2022, can give us important insights (not predictions) into what’s ahead! Hope you enjoy it!

What to expect from England and Wales' local elections? As voting opens tomorrow, find out what electoral outcomes are in store for the UK political parties and what this may indicate is in store for the next general election: https://lnkd.in/gEqWU5VS 🟦The Conservative Party faces a critical juncture, with predictions of potential setbacks. Crucial battlegrounds like Dorset and Nuneaton underscore the uncertain balance of Conservative control, while mayoral races in the West Midlands and Tees Valley become pivotal indicators of party strength. 🟠 Eyeing the 'blue wall' councils, the Liberal Democrats aim for a triumphant performance, positioning themselves for success in traditionally Conservative-held areas. Victories in key constituencies would not only mark territorial gains but also challenge the government's dominance. 🔴 Labour seeks solid gains in pivotal battlegrounds like Milton Keynes and Hartlepool, aiming for resurgence amidst challenges to leadership. These elections will test Labour's resilience and reveal the extent of their ground against the Tories. 🟣🟢Reform UK and the Green Party strive to prove their relevance, with aspirations to translate polling support into electoral success. Their performance in key constituencies will offer insights into their future trajectory. 👉 Remember to bring your Voting ID tomorrow to the polls! Polls open from 7am-10pm. #LocalElections2024 #UKPolitics #VoteTomorrow #Conservatives #Labour #LiberalDemocrats #GreenParty #ReformUK #GeneralElection #PoliticalOutcomes #LocalElections #PoliticalFuture #VotingMatters #Democracy #GetOutTheVote #Decision2024 #FutureLeadership #PartyPolitics #ElectoralFortunes