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⚡ October Energy Market Overview 🌍 Britain marked a significant milestone on 30th September with the closure of its last coal-fired power plant, ending 142 years of coal-generated electricity. This marks another step in the country’s move towards cleaner energy sources. ♻️🌱 Key Market Highlights: In the first week of October, wholesale natural gas spot prices across much of Europe declined, while EU carbon prices dropped to their lowest level in six months. UK LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) send-out has reduced, with four cargoes expected to arrive at UK terminals in October. Windspeeds increased above normal on 7th and 8th October before returning to seasonal norms for the rest of the month. Temperatures were slightly warmer at the start of October but are now expected to drop below average due to Storm Kirk and remain cool through the end of the month. Energy Price Movements: British demand for gas is starting to rise as temperatures drop. In addition, ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, continue to put upward pressure on prices. These factors highlight the unpredictable nature of the energy market. It’s crucial for businesses to consider multiple influences like weather, currency fluctuations, and shifts in supply and demand when managing energy procurement. Our insights are designed to help you make well-informed decisions to protect your bottom line. Bearish Factors (Downward pressure on markets): 🐻 Strong storage supply 🐻 Increase in renewable generation 🐻 LNG shipments Bullish Factors (Upward pressure on markets): 🐂 Drop in temperatures 🐂 Conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine #energy #carbon #renewableenergy

📈 Curious about the latest movements in the UK gas and power markets? Our analyst team has reviewed and detailed the various market trends impacting #energyprices across February ⬇️ #markettrends #energymarkets

The global energy landscape has exhibited a marked degree of volatility over the past week. In this blog post, Jean-Philippe Marty, CQF, Head of Sales Trading, delves into the key drivers impacting the market. - Unforeseen Supply Disruptions: Unplanned outages at critical production facilities in Norway and Australia significantly disrupted gas supplies, leading to a pronounced price increase. - Reduced Wind Generation Exacerbates Issues: Limited wind generation within the United Kingdom further tightened power markets, exerting additional upward pressure on prices. - Lingering Geopolitical and Weather Concerns: The protracted outage in Australia, coupled with unseasonably cold weather across Europe, continued to provide support for elevated gas prices. - Market Normalisation by Week's End: Prices ultimately softened towards the close of the week, coinciding with the restoration of normal Norwegian gas flows and improved wind generation forecasts. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of these market fluctuations, we encourage you to access the full blog post on our website. https://lnkd.in/ewY2Bim8 #EnergyMarketAnalysis #GlobalCommodityTrends #NaturalGasPrices #PowerMarketDynamics

While demand remains muted and the region exited the heating season with the highest stocks on record, industry players gathering at the Flame conference in Amsterdam this week see risks mounting. And prices are responding.Worries include uncertainty over remaining Russian flows through Ukraine and rebounding gas demand in Asia. A colder-than-normal winter spurring consumption at home is also seen as more likely after two consecutive mild ones. #Europe #energy #gas #pricesClick the pic and see more https://lnkd.in/ettK-HWV

🌍 Energy Market Update – Week 47, 2024 Visuals attached in slideshow. The energy market is buzzing! Dunkelflaute, geopolitical tensions, and colder-than-average temperatures are shaping the scene, creating both challenges and opportunities. Here's what you need to know:  ⚡ Electricity - Day-Ahead Prices: Spikes above €500/MWh due to Dunkelflaute; Germany may see spot prices >€1,000/MWh this winter.   - Futures: Cal-25 baseload prices rose to €94/MWh (+€4).   - Renewables: Less than 15% of Dutch electricity was generated by wind and solar last week (average > 40%).  🔥 Gas - see specific storage info in the slideshow - Day-Ahead: TTF traded near €47/MWh on November 19.   - Futures: Cal-25 reached €44/MWh, marking its highest point in 2024.   - Storage: Dutch gas storage stands at 80.55% capacity, providing a buffer, though below the EU average of 90.73%.  🌿 CO₂  - Emissions: Prices increased to over €69/ton due to higher fossil fuel generation. Structural increases expected from 2025 as certificate issuance declines.  🛢️ Oil & Coal  - Oil: Brent prices dropped to $71/barrel, with a low of <$71 (Wednesday) and a high of $73.21 (Thursday).   - Coal: Prices rose slightly to €127/ton as cold weather increased demand amid weak renewable output.  🔮 Outlook  - Electricity: Prices may rise slightly due to cold weather and low wind generation.   - Gas: Geopolitical risks and colder temperatures keep prices elevated.   - CO₂: Emission prices will likely continue their upward trend.   - Oil & Coal: Contrasting trends—weak oil demand vs. strong coal demand driven by winter heating needs.  💡 Need insights to stay ahead in this volatile energy market? Check live updates in E-nalytics!

As the energy world evolves, here's what you need to know: 👉 European Gas Demand Drops: Europe is using 21% less natural gas than its 5-year average, showing a shift away from reliance on imports, especially Russian gas. 👉 Gas Prices Stabilize: The Dutch TTF index, a key benchmark for European gas prices, is currently around 30 EUR/MWh (Y+1) – signaling a stable market despite past volatility. 👉 Global Demand on the Rise: The IEA predicts a 2,5% increase in global gas demand in 2024, driven by emerging economies and a weather conditions. 👉 US Leads LNG Exports: In 2023, the US emerged as the world's largest LNG exporter, providing 80% of the additional supply, showcasing its pivotal role in global energy markets. 👉 Supply Challenges Persist: Despite the demand, the global LNG supply is expected to grow by just 3,5% this year, hinting at a tight market and potential price fluctuations. What This Means? The landscape of global natural gas is undergoing a significant transformation, presenting both challenges and unparalleled opportunities. With the US leading the LNG export race and Europe's strategic pivot away from dependency on imports, we're at a pivotal moment in the energy sector. As we look to 2024, the interplay between rising global demand, geopolitical uncertainties, and supply constraints will undoubtedly shape our energy future. It's a time ripe for innovation, strategic collaborations, and sustainable solutions. #Enerace #NaturalGas #EnergySecurity #GlobalEnergy #LNGExports #Sustainability #GeopoliticalRisks #IEA #EnergyTransition #USLNG

Daily UK #Energy Market Update – 3rd December 2024: Today’s energy market landscape continues to reflect the interplay of steady fundamentals and weather-driven forecasts. Here’s a detailed look at the current trends shaping the UK's energy sector. Gas prices rose significantly yesterday, with the NBP Day-Ahead closing at 120.75 p/therm, a jump of 4.45 p/therm from the previous session. Drivers include anticipation of colder-than-average temperatures starting 7th December, as suggested by the EC46 model, which forecasts below-normal temperatures persisting until January 9th. This, combined with robust LNG send-outs (77 mcm/day today) and twelve inbound LNG cargoes, maintains strong supply levels, balancing heightened seasonal demand. European gas markets reflect similar sentiment, with TTF and PSV prices remaining elevated amidst new storage targets and cooler forecasts. In the UK, the system opened 10 mcm/day long this morning, further stabilising short-term supply. UK power prices mirrored the upward momentum in gas, with the Day-Ahead Baseload rising by £19.29 to £113.40/MWh. The Day-Ahead Peak followed suit, increasing by £23.61 to £125.61/MWh. Although warmer temperatures are expected to curb demand temporarily, wind generation is forecasted to increase from 5th December, potentially easing prices later in the week. Nuclear contributions remain steady with extended lifespans for key facilities such as Heysham 1 and Hartlepool, crucial for Clean Power 2030 targets. Despite this, aging infrastructure poses ongoing challenges. Brent oil settled at $71.83/bbl, reflecting a slight decrease as markets absorb macroeconomic concerns. Coal prices also dipped slightly to $121.32/tonne. On the carbon front, EUAs climbed to €68.83/tonne, indicating heightened focus on decarbonisation efforts. In currency markets, the GBP strengthened against the Euro at 1.2063 but weakened slightly against the USD at 1.2655, underlining global economic uncertainties. As colder weather sets in and renewable output fluctuates, both gas and power markets will likely remain volatile. The UK's diverse LNG supply and extended nuclear capacity should provide some stability, but risks tied to weather and geopolitical developments warrant close monitoring. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s analysis as we navigate this dynamic market.

📢 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies WEBINAR - EUROPEAN GAS MARKET WINTER OUTLOOK  2024/25 🗓 Thursday 21 November 🕑 14:00 GMT (UK time) 👉 Register in advance: https://lnkd.in/g43fBfMH Speakers: 🎙️ Mr Bill Farren-Price, Head of Gas Research, OIES 🎙️ Dr Anouk Honoré, Senior Research Fellow, OIES 🎙️ Dr Jack Sharples, Senior Research Fellow, OIES 🚨EUROPEAN GAS MARKET SUPPLY & DEMAND: WINTER OUTLOOK 2024/25 💠 After two years of mild European winters, the 2024/25 season is set to be chillier as La Niña takes hold, bringing with it colder, wetter and stormier conditions across Europe’s key gas #demand zones. Despite a third year of overall #contraction in gas demand in the EU-27 plus UK, we expect gas demand over the winter months to rise 10 Bcm year-on-year, as colder temperatures drive space #heating and power demand, with short-term gas demand volatility exacerbated by the need to cover #renewables intermittency. 💠On the #supply side, Europe’s domestic gas production continues to slide, pulled back by falling UK output. Meanwhile, pipeline imports from Norway, North Africa and Azerbaijan are nearly topped out and remaining Russian transit gas via Ukraine is expected to halt at the end of December, leaving a shortfall to be filled by higher #LNG imports. Given that global LNG balances are tight, Europe will have to pay a premium to draw additional cargoes, a fresh driver for higher #prices over the winter months 💠In this context of potentially higher and more volatile demand and limited upside #flexibility in supply, #storage represents the most responsive source of short-term supply over the winter. However, EU-27 stocks in mid-November are already 8 Bcm lower year-on-year, and winter withdrawals are also likely to be higher over the coming months. This implies a significant year-on-year increase in storage injections in #summer 2025, with the increased volumes for injection sourced from a relatively tight global LNG market. This is the main reason why #price curves through summer 2025 are robust and only soften when the new wave of LNG starts to make itself felt late in the year 👉 Read the paper: https://lnkd.in/gh2PkhAT 📍 For more information on the OIES Gas Research Programme, please contact Bill Farren-Price, Head of Gas Research, and visit our webpage: https://lnkd.in/drMwjnj #OIESGas

🔴📢 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies WEBINAR - EUROPEAN GAS MARKET WINTER OUTLOOK 2024/25 🗓 Thursday 21 November 🕑 14:00 GMT (UK time) 👉 Register in advance: https://lnkd.in/g43fBfMH Speakers: 🎙️ Mr Bill Farren-Price, Head of Gas Research, OIES 🎙️ Dr Anouk Honoré, Senior Research Fellow, OIES 🎙️ Dr Jack Sharples, Senior Research Fellow, OIES 🚨EUROPEAN GAS MARKET SUPPLY & DEMAND: WINTER OUTLOOK 2024/25 💠 After two years of mild European winters, the 2024/25 season is set to be chillier as La Niña takes hold, bringing with it colder, wetter and stormier conditions across Europe’s key gas #demand zones. Despite a third year of overall #contraction in gas demand in the EU-27 plus UK, we expect gas demand over the winter months to rise 10 Bcm year-on-year, as colder temperatures drive space #heating and power demand, with short-term gas demand volatility exacerbated by the need to cover #renewables intermittency. 💠On the #supply side, Europe’s domestic gas production continues to slide, pulled back by falling UK output. Meanwhile, pipeline imports from Norway, North Africa and Azerbaijan are nearly topped out and remaining Russian transit gas via Ukraine is expected to halt at the end of December, leaving a shortfall to be filled by higher #LNG imports. Given that global LNG balances are tight, Europe will have to pay a premium to draw additional cargoes, a fresh driver for higher #prices over the winter months 💠In this context of potentially higher and more volatile demand and limited upside #flexibility in supply, #storage represents the most responsive source of short-term supply over the winter. However, EU-27 stocks in mid-November are already 8 Bcm lower year-on-year, and winter withdrawals are also likely to be higher over the coming months. This implies a significant year-on-year increase in storage injections in #summer 2025, with the increased volumes for injection sourced from a relatively tight global LNG market. This is the main reason why #price curves through summer 2025 are robust and only soften when the new wave of LNG starts to make itself felt late in the year 👉 Read the paper: https://lnkd.in/gh2PkhAT 📍 For more information on the OIES Gas Research Programme, please contact Bill Farren-Price, Head of Gas Research, and visit our webpage: https://lnkd.in/drMwjnj #OIESGas

Several key factors are driving the fluctuations in gas prices. Understanding these influences can help consumers and policymakers navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead. #GasPricesFluctuations #GasPriceTrends #ConsumerGasInsights #PolicymakerPerspective #GasPriceChallenges #GasPriceOpportunities #UnderstandingGasCosts #FuelPriceInfluences #NavigatingGasPriceChanges #GasPriceAnalysis https://lnkd.in/eEBAA4D2