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Kore Energy Market Update for February 21 Downward momentum has resumed in the NBP after a brief pause, with both Summer-24 and Mar-24 experiencing losses. The wider energy complex, including the Dec-24 EUA contract and oil prices, is also seeing declines. Read the full update here: https://lnkd.in/e3FUPGpQ #GasMarket #PowerMarket #OilMarket #EnergyNews

6% increase EU natural gas consumption helps keep markets on edge at $42.24/MWh or Eur37.75/MWh. 6% increase in gas consumption expected Growing wind sector to drive power volatility Carbon markets set for steady recovery Europe enters the fourth quarter, and the official start of the gas winter, markets remain on edge, with the expiry of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal at year-end in sharp focus. Prices also remain relatively high, reflecting market jitters, with Platts -- part of S&P Global Commodity Insights -- assessing the TTF month-ahead price at Eur37.75/MWh ($42.24/MWh) on Sept. 27. This is despite EU storage sites being almost full at 94.2% of capacity as of Sept. 28, with a mild October likely to see stocks reach close to tank-top as Norwegian maintenance winds down. Overall demand levels in Q4 will be key. Commodity Insights forecasts demand in the EU27 and UK at some 1.228 Bcm/d in the quarter, which would be a 6% increase year on year. Demand in the residential and commercial sector is expected to increase 7% assuming a return to normal weather, while industrial demand is set to improve by 3% on the year. https://lnkd.in/g3XrQ-BG

The FT writes, an unseasonably warm winter has helped fill gas inventories faster than expected, dragging down prices in the US and Europe. The European benchmark, Dutch TTF, closed below $7.30/mmbtu recently, levels last seen pre-energy crisis and down more than 90% from the record highs seen in the early months of the war, according to energy consultancy ICIS. Prices in Asia have also fallen sharply. While the US market is insulated from the rest of the world, benchmark Henry Hub contracts for March also slipped to a near three-decade low earlier this month, excluding a handful of days in the Covid-19 pandemic. The northern hemisphere is experiencing one of the hottest winters on record due to climate change and El Niño weather patterns. This has muted demand for gas in the US and Europe, filling up inventories weeks before spring, when gas is typically injected into storage, and lowering the prices for Asian traders to compete for shipments. Meanwhile, in the US, gas production has marched to new heights, depressing prices and tilting the market into oversupply. “We have too much gas. There’s not enough storage, and so prices have to go to a point where they curtail supply,” said Ademiju Allen, senior analyst at Rystad Energy. Market conditions have pushed US gas producers Chesapeake Energy and Coterra Energy to cut production guidance for 2024. Analysts expect further pullback from producers and for US gas prices to tick up at the end of this year and in early 2025 as more liquefied natural gas export capacity comes online. Bottom Line: Lower gas prices have implications for the energy transition, potentially keeping consumers hooked on the fuel for longer. It could also boost gas’s image as a transition fuel from coal to renewables, especially in Asia, the biggest source of new gas demand growth. Qatar made big bets on the market this week, announcing it will increase LNG production capacity by almost 85% before the end of the decade. 🤔 👀 #naturalgas #lng #europe

Per the FT, the slide in gas prices around the world shares some common denominators and points to bigger questions regarding Europe’s industrial recovery and the role of gas as a transition fuel. “We’re coming out of a period of a substantially tighter market, which we haven’t seen previously at any point in global gas,” said Samuel Good, head of energy pricing at Argus Media. “The balance between supply and demand is much looser than they have been in almost two years, and we would expect that easier balance to continue.” What sets this commodities cycle apart from previous ones is what will happen in Europe. The continent has at least one more winter before new LNG supply replaces the loss in Russian imports and it’s clear of the energy crisis. But this period of lower prices could serve as a test of whether Europe’s industrial sector has a chance of recovery. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates approximately 6-10% of European industrial gas consumption is gone forever due to demand destruction. “It’ll take some time . . . before we can really begin to believe that energy is affordable,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at ICIS. Samantha Dart, head of natural gas research at Goldman Sachs, says Europe’s price situation is a “preview” of what it can expect at the end of the decade when a surge in LNG exports oversupplies the market, further pushing down prices and helping reduce the risks of industrial offshoring. The firm expects 204 mmtpa of new LNG supply by 2028, twice the amount of Russian supplies curtailed by Europe. “When we make long-term investment decisions for the energy transition, we should not base them on current spot prices, but we inevitably do,” said Michael Stoppard at S&P Global Commodity Insights. “There was a big shift against natural gas, of course, when the price was very high, and it was seen as unreliable. Now there’s a feeling that natural gas is back again . . . and it will make competitive support for renewables more difficult.” #LNG #naturalgas #commodities 👀👇

After more than a year’s respite from record price swings in Europe’s natural gas market, traders are getting agitated again. While demand remains muted and the region exited the heating season with the highest stocks on record, industry players gathering at the Flame conference in Amsterdam this week see risks mounting. And prices are responding. “Are we out of the crisis? I think it is too soon to say,” said Cara MacDonald, head of LNG & clean fuels supply and origination at RWE. “If we have a cold winter, this year, next year, the flexibility on the demand side will diminish.” #EnergyConnects #energynews #energyindustry #news #oott #naturalgas #energycrisis

European gas prices surged on Thursday – with the TTF hitting year-to-date highs and the NBP reaching 4.5-month highs – as supply concerns and technical trading fuelled bullish sentiment. #TTF #NBP #gas #trading #supply #concerns #bullish

Global natural gas prices have significantly dropped due to a surplus caused by a warmer-than-expected winter, which reduced heating demand in key consumer countries. Morgan Stanley anticipates this oversupply to reach multi-decade highs in the coming years as a record expansion in liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity—over 150 million tonnes per annum—is currently under construction. With prices down approximately 22% for the year to $1.83 per MMBtu, the mild winter has led to higher-than-average storage levels and a price decline since October. The warmest winter on record in the U.S. and the second warmest in Europe and Japan have contributed to this trend. Lower gas prices are particularly beneficial for Europe, which has seen LNG imports rise to 35% of its gas supply following Russia's supply cut, and for countries like India and Southeast Asia, where gas constitutes a significant portion of energy supplies. Despite the bearish outlook, analysts suggest that low prices could revive demand, particularly from second-tier and emerging markets like China, indicating a potential price floor.

End of Day UK #Energy Market Update – 05/09/2024 The UK energy markets saw a notable rebound today, ending a three-day losing streak across Power and Gas prices. Front-month UK Power closed at £74.25/MWh, up by 1.71%, while the front-month NBP Gas contract saw an increase of 1.79%, closing at 87.52p/therm. This uptick comes after a period of downward pressure, likely driven by the recent cooler weather forecasts and improved wind generation across Europe. Gas prices, which had been in decline, regained momentum following Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments, indicating that Russia remains willing to supply gas to Europe through Gazprom. However, with Europe's firm stance on reducing dependency on Russian gas, concerns are mounting over potential supply constraints post-New Year, as the transit agreement via Ukraine is set to expire. Further out on the curve, Q1 2025 Power prices increased by 1.95%, closing at £82.36/MWh, while Gas contracts for the same period rose by 2.04%, finishing at 94.67p/therm. Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders pricing in possible supply disruptions and colder-than-expected weather forecasts for early 2025. In the carbon markets, Dec24 EUAs slipped by 0.66%, closing at €66.56/tonne, reflecting a softening in demand expectations. In contrast, UKAs inched up by 0.57%, finishing at £42.01/tonne as the UK government continues to align its carbon policies with broader European targets. On the global commodities front, Brent crude surged by 1.68%, settling at $73.92/barrel, amid tightening supply expectations as OPEC+ maintains its output cuts. This rise in oil prices also provided some bullish sentiment to the broader energy complex. With geopolitical tensions still a key driver of volatility, and Europe on the cusp of transitioning away from Russian gas supplies, it remains essential for market participants to stay agile in navigating the evolving landscape. Our team at Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd is here to provide insights and support as you navigate the evolving energy landscape. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #CarbonTrading #NaturalGas #MarketUpdate #EnergyInsights

As of October 15th, 2024, the UK energy market continues to see fluctuations driven by weather patterns, gas flows, and international energy dynamics. The gas system opened undersupplied by 14 mcm/day, as milder-than-expected weather reduces domestic heating demand. Tomorrow is expected to be the warmest day of the week, keeping forecasted LDZ demand low. However, gas-for-power demand is anticipated to increase slightly through the weekend and into next week. LNG send-out has dropped to 10 mcm/day, with one cargo arriving tomorrow and two more expected later in October. Norwegian exports to the continent are now at 326 mcm/day, up from previous days, following the completion of maintenance at the Kristin gas field. NBP day-ahead gas settled at 97.60 p/therm, reflecting tight market conditions despite subdued residential demand. Gas curve contracts also showed upward movement, aligning with broader market trends as participants respond to a recovering oil market and shifting European gas supplies. Power prices followed gas markets higher. The UK day-ahead baseload price rose to £87.12/MWh, while peak prices climbed to £91.17/MWh. Market sentiment remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and maintenance schedules. On the renewable side, wind output is expected to remain steady, while warmer temperatures could temper solar generation performance. In global energy markets, Brent crude slipped to $77.46 per barrel, while EUA carbon prices rose to €65.97/tonne, reflecting market expectations around future emissions policies. Pan-European gas storage levels have increased to 95.07%, providing some seasonal buffer, though UK mid-range storages are nominating injections today following recent withdrawals. The GBP held steady, trading at 1.1952 against the euro and 1.3059 against the dollar. As the week progresses, all eyes remain on weather forecasts, LNG arrivals, and interconnector activity, which will shape both spot and forward prices across gas and power markets.

Daily Energy Market Update – 6th September 2024 As we look ahead to next week, temperatures across Britain are forecast to dip significantly, with averages dropping as low as 4°C below seasonal norms. Expect temperatures to hover around 10°C, which could put upward pressure on UK gas prices. Colder weather typically drives higher heating demand, potentially increasing short-term market volatility. In contrast, wind power generation is set to exceed seasonal expectations by over 20% during the first part of next week. This surge in wind output may contribute to a bearish trend in prompt UK energy prices. However, as the week progresses, wind generation is expected to fall back in line with seasonal norms, which could stabilise the market by the latter half of the week. Globally, the energy landscape is also shifting. Egypt has announced plans to purchase 20 cargoes of LNG starting in October, marking its first imports of the fuel in years as it prepares for the winter season. This move could have a bullish impact on near-curve UK gas prices, as potential supplies might be diverted away from the European continent, tightening the market. In terms of pricing movements, Day-Ahead gas prices have seen a dip, trading at 85.90 p/th, a 3.14% decrease from the previous day. Power prices on the Day-Ahead market have also softened, currently at £76.18/MWh, down by 0.98%. Meanwhile, Brent Crude remains relatively steady at $72.69 per barrel. Looking at the UK gas grid, it is expected to end the day with a surplus of 4.44 million cubic meters (mcm). This oversupply could add further bearish pressure to the Within-Day National Balancing Point (NBP) contract, as market participants anticipate a well-supplied system in the near term. These shifts in temperature, wind generation, and global LNG demand are likely to drive key market movements in the coming week. For a more detailed view of the energy market or to discuss how these changes may affect your business, feel free to reach out to our trading desk.