E2’s Post

"The deportation scheme may appease the large segment of White voters weary of losing their demographic majority. But it would face severe backlash from key business sectors that historically trend conservative. Farmers and construction companies have expressed apprehension about the plan. Both the deportation plan and the tariffs would likely raise prices, which goes against his voters’ expectations that Trump would lower the cost of living." Explore the economic and political implications of these policies in NCRC's analysis: https://lnkd.in/e5s9pHf7 #ImmigrationPolicy #EconomicJustice #JustEconomy

🇺🇸 📊 USA ECONOMICAL PERFORMANCE 🇺🇸 📊 Reuters… “ Robust US economy may not need Trump's big reforms” By Howard Schneider January 13, 2025 Summary: Trump inherits strong economy with low unemployment Concerns over inflation, deficits may limit Trump's policy options Experts warn Trump's policies could disrupt economic stability” WASHINGTON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on promises of aggressive import tariffs, strict immigration curbs, deregulation and smaller government, but the economy he inherits next week may be screaming for something different. Namely, don't break anything. With output expanding above trend, the labor market near maximum employment and adding jobs, and the embers of inflation still smoldering, Trump may be launching his promised reforms into an economy less in need of the sort of stimulus his 2017 tax cuts provided. As a stock selloff following last week's strong December jobs report showed, it may also be prone to correction given high asset values and a bond market that has been moving yields higher. ….. ….. ….. “ Robust US economy may not need Trump's big reforms - https://lnkd.in/gEFtigzx

Market brief - 16th Oct The Government is drip-feeding details of the Budget, which is in two weeks today. Reeves wants to find £40 billion of savings and that would be used to fund growth investment and plug the financial ‘black hole’. Pensioners may lose their 25% discount on council tax and Starmer refused to rule out an increase to employers' national insurance, even though that would break a manifesto promise. Employment data was positive. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.0% and the Employment Change was 373K in the three months to August  August inflation was 1.7%, beating forecast. Stronger employment data and inflation below target means a rate cut at the next MPC meeting might be more likely. Over in the US, despite guiding the economy towards a soft landing, many feel that Powell’s job is on the line, if Trump wins the election.  Trump plans to increase tariffs on foreign goods entering the US. 20% is the base level tariff for most imports, China will be 60% and some imported cars may have a 200% tariff applied. GBP kicked off around 1.3010 against USD, 1.1960 against EUR and EURUSD was around 1.0880 on the open. #Finance #FxPlew #news

So, it looks like 2025 is shaping up to be... a bit of a headache. As the political landscape shifts, foreign investment could slow, and businesses could face delays in hiring or making new investments as they wait to see what happens. Meanwhile, policies like tax hikes, tariffs, and regulations are still a real threat to your bottom line. You could find yourself paying higher taxes while you’re stuck in a political limbo. ℹ️ The UK government just announced tax hikes, National Insurance contributions are on the rise, and companies are already feeling the pinch. The British Chambers of Commerce found that 63% of firms are now seriously worried about taxes, with more than half planning to raise prices in the next three months just to survive. That’s right: rising costs, taxes, and inflation are putting a massive squeeze on businesses of all sizes. But it gets worse 👇 ℹ️ The BCC’s latest survey shows business confidence is at a two-year low. Companies are cutting back on investment, holding off on hiring, and putting up prices just to cover the increased costs. And let’s not forget, that inflation is still climbing, even though it’s cooled off from last year’s peak. ℹ️ Meanwhile in Canada, Justin Trudeau is stepping down as Prime Minister. While this might be a bit of a shock, it’s also sparked a whole lot of uncertainty about what’s coming next for Canada. With Parliament prorogued until March, and the political future up in the air, markets are already feeling the jitters. The Canadian dollar just dipped below 70 cents U.S., and the economic uncertainty is at an all-time high. 💡 What does this mean for your business? Uncertainty brings risk, but it also opens a window for action. If you’re a UK business owner, juggling tight margins and rising costs, now might be the time to protect your assets and secure your future. You don’t have to wait for conditions to worsen. Take control—choose where you live, invest, and manage your taxes. If you’re feeling the pinch of inflation and rising taxes, let’s build a tailored plan to maximize your freedom 👇 Nomadcapitalist.com/apply #Taxes #News #GlobalNews #Trudeau #Canada #UK #UKtaxes

On @CNBC-Overtime this past Thursday: Fed is likely to cut rates next week 1/4% but then pause. The economy is doing well despite the high level of interest rates relative to inflation. Investors are excited about the likelihood of a tax cut under the incoming President but he cut corporate tax rates from 35 to 21% last go-round. It is more probable that we'll see some cherry picking with few if any tax cuts. A 1% increase in tariffs could mean a 1/10% increase in inflation, and mass deportation of illegal immigrants could hurt ag and construction big time, e.g., construction is already 500,000 workers short, and illegals make up 21-22% of their workforce. Inflation impact if worst case develops. @barbara_doran1 #investments #finances #inflation #Trump

The economic gains from Trump’s proposed policies—deregulation, tax cuts, reshoring of businesses, and foreign investment—are designed to put more money directly into the pockets of American workers through increased wages, job opportunities, and lower costs. Here’s a breakdown of the impact: 1. Higher Wages and Job Creation: • Reshoring businesses would bring manufacturing and industrial jobs back to the U.S., where wages are generally higher than in competing foreign markets. During Trump’s first term, policies like the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (2017) led to wage growth averaging 3.4% annually in 2019, particularly for blue-collar workers. Reshoring could replicate or even exceed this growth, especially in manufacturing, construction, and energy sectors . • Deregulation would reduce costs for businesses, encouraging expansion and hiring more workers, which can drive up wages as competition for skilled labor increases. 2. Lower Taxes for Workers: • Trump’s economic proposals include extending and expanding the 2017 tax cuts, which reduced income taxes across all brackets. For middle-income earners, this resulted in an average annual savings of $1,200–$2,000 . Trump’s team has floated further cuts that could put even more money back into households. 3. Reduced Consumer Costs (Long Term): • Deregulation in sectors like energy (e.g., reducing restrictions on oil and gas production) could lower fuel and utility costs for American households. Savings on energy bills and goods production could translate to lower prices on everyday consumer goods. • While tariffs may raise short-term costs, Trump’s negotiating tactics aim to level the playing field, encouraging domestic production that stabilizes prices and boosts purchasing power over time. 4. Stronger Job Market and Opportunities: • Increased foreign investment and pro-business policies would create job opportunities across various sectors, particularly in manufacturing, technology, and energy, leading to lower unemployment rates and better career prospects. During Trump’s first term, unemployment reached a 50-year low of 3.5% before the pandemic. What This Means for the Average American Worker: • Higher take-home pay through wage growth and lower taxes. • More job opportunities with better pay in sectors like manufacturing and energy. • Lower costs for energy, goods, and services in the long term due to deregulation and reshoring. • Greater job security as businesses invest domestically rather than outsourcing jobs overseas. In sum, Trump’s policies are aimed at empowering workers through higher wages, lower taxes, and a revitalized domestic economy, with blue-collar and middle-class households expected to benefit the most. Savings of $2,000–$3,500 annually per household could be achievable if these measures are successfully implemented.

As 2024 draws to a close, the U.S. economy finds itself in a relatively stable position after five years of uncertainty and turmoil. Inflation has cooled, unemployment remains low, and the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates. The recession that many economists had predicted has not materialized, marking a period of relative economic stability unseen since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. However, the economic forecast for 2025 is shrouded in uncertainty, primarily due to the election of Donald J. Trump as the next president. Trump's campaign promises and post-election statements have outlined a series of sweeping policy changes that could significantly impact the economy. These proposed changes include imposing steep tariffs, deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, implementing tax cuts for individuals and businesses, and drastically reducing regulations. While tax cuts and deregulation could potentially stimulate economic growth and increase corporate profits, they might also lead to larger budget deficits. New tariffs and mass deportations could result in higher prices and slower economic growth, according to most economic models. Many Americans remain frustrated with high prices, particularly for essentials like food and housing. This frustration played a significant role in Trump's re-election. However, there appears to be a growing public perception that the economy is normalizing. The stock market has responded positively to Trump's election, with share prices soaring. Many investors appear to be betting on a focus on tax cuts and deregulation, with a more moderate approach to trade and immigration policy. However, some economists warn that this optimism may be misplaced. Michael Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, cautions: "Markets have a serenity about trade and immigration policy that I think is unwarranted. Trade and immigration policy could be extremely disruptive to the economy." Strain outlines a worst-case scenario where steep tariffs discourage investment, mass deportations create labor shortages, and mounting deficits drive up borrowing costs, potentially leading to a form of "stagflation" not seen in nearly half a century. Trump inherits an economy that is solid but slowing, with inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and interest rates still high by recent standards. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with maintaining a stable job market. While the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, there are signs of potential weakness, such as longer job search times for the unemployed. Despite these challenges, there are reasons for continued optimism. Households have relatively low debt compared to their incomes, productivity growth has been strong, and the potential of artificial intelligence could further boost economic performance. The U.S. also remains an attractive destination for global investment.

Steady bullish momentum for GBP/USD this week and very quiet on the UK front. How will Trump cut tax and paydown debt? Read below to find out more… Uncertainty over how Trump is going to provide tax cuts and pay down debt could be a key driver in market sentiment. Ambitious tax reform proposals, including eliminating taxes on tips, overtime and pension benefits while reducing corporate taxes for US manufacturers could stimulate economic activity. Despite this, the lack of clarity on accompanying government spending cuts has raised concerns about ballooning deficits. Trumps continued emphasis on aggressive tariffs as a revenue source to offset tax cuts could help, however, will it be enough? Looking at US economic data released this week, unemployment claims came in higher than forecasted, with 224k. As a result, we saw an increase in US unemployment rate to 4.2%, from a previous 4.1%. Additionally, with talks of clamping down on immigration, which is currently at estimates of 11.7 million people (Centre of Migration Studies), deportation could significantly harm the US labour force. With the Federal Funds Rate decision coming up on the 18th of December, markets are aware of the possibility of seeing an additional rate cut. Key events to look out for this week: - USD: CPI data (Wednesday 1.30pm GMT) - USD: PPI data (Thursday 1.30pm GMT) - USD: Unemployment Claims (Thursday 1.30pm GMT) - GBP: GDP m/m (Friday 7am GMT)