At the end of May, I participated in the International Eurasian Conference 2024 "Rise of Regionalism in Eurasia" on "Kazakhstan's role as an Active Architect in Eurasian Geopolitcs". In my presentation, I wanted to move away from the approach of viewing Central Asian countries as the object of major players, and to view more Central Asian countries as actors that can also make strategic decisions. The most striking example is Kazakhstan's decision to actively promote the Middle Corridor, whatever the desire of external actors to develop this route, it would be of little use without Kazakhstan's desire to develop the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. A second example is the prioritization of various regional organizations such as the CIS, SCO, and CSTO in the speeches of Putin and Tokayev in the interviews of both leaders before Putin's visit to Kazakhstan last year. At that time it was clear how Putin put more emphasis on the CSTO, but Tokayev spoke more often about the current role of the SCO in the Eurasian space. In my presentation, I decided to analyze the key topics that Kazakhstan actively promoted in summits with Russia, China, the EU, and Turkey (we are talking about the latest summit of the Organisation of Turkic States). At the end of the presentation, I concluded that Kazakhstan's main interests in working with external players, including in promoting transport projects, are as follows: •China: attracting investment (from 2013 to 2018 it invested about 24 billion dollars); •EU: attracting investments to avoid overdependence on China (at this stage, the EU plans to invest €3 billion in Central Asia); •Russia: securing the functioning of transportation corridors and expanding business activity with access to the European and Chinese markets; •Türkiye and the Organization of Turkic States: creating a framework for more simplified movement of goods through transit countries along the Middle Corridor. Many thanks to Yaşar Sarı and to my colleagues from the Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies for inviting me.
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Friendship photo - the deep relationships. between the two countries is beyond protocol. From memories, a few Singapore’s leaders have/had deep personal friendships shown publicly: Mr Lee Kuan Yew’s (LKY) and Dr Henry Kessinger (#usa) - not only a photo-op, but both men had penned in their writings words of mutual respects for each other. LKY’s and President Suharto (#indonesia) - decades of friendship were well publicized, so important for stability for SG. LKY’s and President Jiang Zemin (#china) - personal friendship was also obvious. The personal friendship built mutual trusts and harmony to bi-lateral relationships. ESM Goh Chok Tong’s (GCT) famous night golf session with President Clinton (#usa) - brought both countries the momentum to pursue Free Trade Agreement, and decades of close cooperations, despite some hiccups along the way. GCT’s along with former Foreign Minsiter George Yeo and team built deep connections with India’s leadership, along the way friendships that survived their watch. Now we have Modi - PM Lawrence Wong friendship photo-op. This is indeed a gust of fresh air given the dusty international atmosphere now. Personally, I hope to see beyond photo-op, something strategic for the long term should emerge for generations after their watch. For example, India’s aspirations in semiconductor is strategic and opportune moment. Why not leverage on both country’s history, come with a bold joint-project - as bold as Suzhou-industrial-Park (SIP) in #China years ago? Unlike SIP which is physical “playground”, do a cyber “playground” for Innovation Economy of both countries - jointly build a #RISC_V ecosystem for space communication and telemetry, leveraging on India’s world famous software expertises, SG’s long history in Semiconductor value-chain, and both country’s aspirations in space technologies. China just completed orbit 3 adding the last 10 satellites yesterday, space comm will have tremendous economy and society impacts for propelling India ahead. The spillovers may ignite momentums in many industrial and consumer applications for generations. Okay, is a dream … wake up … it takes courage to plant the flag to charge ahead. This take a few more hugs to get going 😀 #singapore #india #usa #geopolitics #space #communication #riscv
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Russia, China work on Xi Jinping’s participation in BRICS summit — ambassador "Both countries currently maintain very close contacts on the issue," Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said VLADIVOSTOK, September 4/ Moscow and Beijing are working on the subject of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s participation in the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui told reporters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF). "Both countries currently maintain very close contacts on the issue," he said, answering to a question from TASS. Russian presidential aide for international affairs Yury Ushakov said on September 2 Russia had invited 36 foreign leaders to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 22-24, and 18 of them had already accepted the invitation. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) is underway on the campus of the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok on September 3-6, 2024. The main theme of the EEF in 2024 is "Far East 2030. Combining strengths to create new potential." EEF 2024 business activities are broken down into seven thematic blocks: "New contours of international cooperation," "Technologies to ensure independence," "Financial system of values," "the Russian Far East," "People, education and patriotism," "Transport and logistics: new routes," and "Master plans: from architecture to economy." The Roscongress Foundation has served as the Forum’s organizer since 2016. TASS is the general information partner of the EEF. #business #finance #financialservices
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"The geostrategic importance of the Eurasian continent and its surrounding oceans for the PRC is unmistakable, as is the linkage between China's and Russia's strategic spaces. China's maritime and global expansion would not have been possible and would not have been sustainable without a secure rear area. Russia will continue to be key in Beijing's geostrategic calculations for the foreseeable future." "What US thinkers call the global commons are usually described in Chinese writings as something akin to territories without a master--a terra nullius where humans have not left their mark yet, either by physical occupation or through law, or a blank slate full of promises, especially for a rising great power eager to exercise its dominion." "China is expected (by Chinese strategists) to replace the US as the top world power, in part due to changes in comprehensive national power, globalization dynamics, and the impending fourth scientific and technological revolution. This judgment has not been subject to any significant revisions since its pronouncement, even in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic or amid the pandemic's lingering negative effects on the performance of the Chinese economy." Just three of the many fascinating nuggets in this new, landmark report by Nadège Rolland on China's evolving conceptualization of its geopolitical environment. A must-read for students of grand strategy, US-China relations, and great power competition. https://lnkd.in/eMZeDM6Z
Mapping China's Strategic Space
nbr.org
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🗨 Greece holds a multifaceted significance in today's geopolitical landscape. Beyond the challenges it faces, there's a narrative of resilience and potential that warrants attention. On one hand, Greece grapples with the harsh realities of climate change and regional tensions fueled by the "Blue Homeland" strategy. Yet, amidst these challenges, Greece is also on a path of recovery from the economic downturn of 2008. 💡 But what truly intrigues me is Greece's evolving role as a pivotal point in the Eastern Mediterranean and the broader EU. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) initiative, presents an opportunity to connect three crucial regions: the EU, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. In a recent Policy Brief by the Progresivní Analytické Centrum, I focused on the potential of this cooperation: 🔍 Exploring how Greece can emerge as an economic linchpin for the EU. 🤝 Unpacking the rationale behind Greek-Indian collaboration. 🌐 Analyzing the implications of the IMEC initiative on EU diplomacy and regional integration. 👉 Greece's strategic positioning offers a gateway to new economic possibilities and diplomatic avenues. ❓ But some questions emerge after all: how about China's BRI initiative? Furthermore, what will happen with the IMEC due to a conflict in the Middle East? How the initiative will be influenced after crucial elections in the EU or India? Read more here 👇 #Geopolitics #Greece #IMECInitiative #EUIntegration #resilientsociety #globalgateway #EUglobalgateway #eudiplomacy
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Here are the highlights of this week’s ‘China 5’ newsletter, bringing you 5 big things you need to know about #China each Friday from our experts at the #CenterforChinaAnalysis 🧵👇 🗨️Xi’s National Day Message: #XiJinping addressed a reception in #Beijing on September 30 to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Xi’s speech largely echoed his comments during the 100th anniversary of the CCP’s founding in 2021 and those made at the start of his third term at the 20th Party Congress in 2022. This consistency once again indicates his confidence in #China’s domestic trajectory as well as his concerns about its challenging strategic environment. - Lobsang Tsering 📈Beijing Doubles Down on Pro-Growth Agenda: Following the September Politburo meeting, China’s National Development and Reform Commission pledged support to private #entrepreneurs during a roundtable and major banks announced interest rate cuts on housing loans. Years of regulatory crackdowns, a battered property market, and rising debt have eroded confidence, leaving many feeling trapped in the “garbage time of history”—a period of stagnation with little optimism for real change. - Lizzi C. Lee 🚀China Conducts Rare Missile Test: On September 25, #China test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (#ICBM) that traveled over 7,500 miles and landed in waters near French Polynesia. While China called the test “routine,” the last time it fired an ICBM into international waters was 44 years ago, in 1980. The missile’s launch and its accompanying public announcement can be interpreted as China sending strong signals to rivals of its #military capabilities. -Lyle J. Morris 🎏2024 China International Confucius Cultural Festival: On September 27, the opening ceremony of the 2024 China International #Confucius Cultural Festival was held in Qufu, Shandong, the birthplace of the Chinese philosopher. Not all international #diplomacy is economic or militaristic in nature, and the festival foregrounds the importance and potency of China’s #softpower. The China International Confucius Cultural Festival is especially effectual as part of the Global Civilization Initiative, announced by Xi Jinping in March 2023- Ian Lane Smith 🇺🇳Wang Yi Addresses the United Nations: Last week, Chinese foreign minister #WangYi gave a speech at #UNGA79 in New York. Although UNGA79 coincided with #ClimateWeek, climate action did not emerge as a primary focus in the discussions. This highlights the increasing challenges imposed on the global #climate agenda in a world distracted by geopolitical turbulence. -Taylah Bland To never miss an update, subscribe to China 5 here: https://lnkd.in/eteSxi32
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🔔 Webinar Invitation 🔔 The Stephen A. Jarislowsky Chair in International Business Management is pleased to invite you to an engaging webinar on a major current topic: 🌏 Political Upheavals in South Asia and Their Geostrategic Implications South Asia, home to 25% of the world's population and two nuclear powers, is characterized by significant cultural, linguistic, and religious diversity. Among the eight members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), seven have recently undergone major political changes, reshaping the dynamics of intra- and interregional cooperation, competition, and rivalry. This webinar will highlight the current political dynamics in South Asia and explore its impact on intraregional relations as well as international relations, particularly with China, the Indo-Pacific region, Russia, the Middle East, and the United States. 🎤 The presentations will be delivered in English. Don't miss this opportunity to deepen your understanding of this strategic and rapidly evolving region. 📅 Date and Time: Thursday, November 28, 2024, from 12:30 PM to 2:30 PM (Quebec/EST) 🔗 Register here: https://lnkd.in/ex8jtVfM Speakers: @Tad Hashmi Sreeradha Datta Muhammad Mohiuddin FSA ULaval Université Laval #SouthAsia #Geostrategy #InternationalAffairs #Webinar #UniversitéLaval #GlobalPolitics #InternationalRelations #StephenAJarislowskyChair
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*🇨🇭President Amherd visits Japan: Op-ed in Nikkei newspaper* Discover the key take-aways of President Amherd’s visit to Japan in her op-ed article published by Nikkei : ▶️ Switzerland and Japan have maintained bilateral relations for 160 years, and the presidential trip is intended to further strengthen this blossoming #partnership, which is founded on #business and rooted in shared #values. ▶️ Both countries maintain strong #economic ties, supported by the Free Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement of 2009. Switzerland is Japan's 8th largest foreign investor, and Japan ranks 9th for Swiss investments, thanks to Switzerland’s high-performing innovation ecosystem. ▶️ #Science and #academia are also key, with Japan being Switzerland’s largest research partner in Asia. Collaboration areas include #AI, #quantum computing, green technologies, and #space exploration. ▶️ Against the backdrop of an unstable geopolitical landscape, shared values like #freedom, #democracy, and #peaceful conflict resolution are crucial, underscored by joint efforts in the UN Security Council and a commitment to peace in Ukraine. Switzerland is a member of the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC), whose main task is to monitor compliance with the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement. ▶️ President Amherd’s meetings in #Japan, with Foreign Minister Kamikawa, Prime Minister Kishida, and Defence Minister Kihara, focused on the further development of friendly ties between Switzerland and Japan, prospects in Europe and East Asia, the global #security architecture and on fostering economic prosperity, and advancing scientific progress. ▶️ Her visit culminated today with an audience meeting with His Majesty the Emperor. President Amherd concludes her message with a positive outlook on our bilateral relationship: “An even brighter, future-defining friendship between Japan and Switzerland lies within our reach.” The op-ed article here (Japanese): https://lnkd.in/dcqExtKp Further information on the visit here : https://lnkd.in/dYePFFdE
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Russian minister calls to replicate globalist supranational technocratic European Union (EU) in Eurasia as Eurasian Union (EU). "Let's start from the very beginning: what is the Eurasian Economic Union? What is the point of this organization? As an organization, the EAEU was created for the economic integration of the post-Soviet space through the implementation of four freedoms - freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and labor. That is, we are primarily talking about creating common markets and barrier-free access to the market of any EAEU member state. In the modern world - whether we want it or not - not a single national state can do without international contacts, without intensive interaction with others. This applies to all countries - both large and small. This is simply the key to survival. Therefore, the question is not whether to integrate or not, but only with whom to integrate and on what basis. If we look at the whole world, we will notice that all regions are uniting economically - the United States is interacting more and more closely with Mexico, Canada and the Asia-Pacific region. The European Union has united all European countries and is trying to continue moving to the East. China is creating its own integration zone along the One Road - One Belt project. Africa unites. Everyone understands that no one can survive alone." https://lnkd.in/e8VApUMc
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The increased attention on China in Central Asia is underscored by the fact that the region’s traditional dominant power—Russia—is struggling to maintain its appeal and is itself increasingly becoming dependent on Beijing. Against this backdrop, China’s growing attention to Central Asia is perceived as a harbinger of tectonic shifts in regional geopolitics. Last year’s grandiose inaugural China-Central Asia Summit in Xi’an is often cited as evidence that China is supplanting Russia in the region. Similarly, Xi Jinping’s statement affirming support for Kazakhstan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is seen as further confirmation of Beijing’s commitments. https://lnkd.in/dq_rF5cK
What Does Xi Jinping Want From Central Asia?
carnegieendowment.org
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🟢 EURASIA AT THE HEART OF THE BRICS 🟡 The BRICS Summit, which has been held annually since its first edition in Yekaterinburg in 2009 (NB: at that time it was the BRIC grouping Brazil, Russia, India and China), has once again taken place in Russia, in Kazan. This summit meeting has sometimes been presented as a replica of the G7, whose GNP the BRICS now exceed, and as confirmation of the emergence of a new, more multipolar world; it has also revealed once again Russia's Eurasian temptation. (...) The Eurasian temptation reflects in particular, if not primarily, a questioning of identity, which is not unique to Russia but is due in general to accelerated modernisation, the effects of globalisation and migration that has become uncontrolled around the world as a result of climate change, wars and global inequalities. Russia is a bi-continental, multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-cultural empire, and its Eurasism is as much a protest against the West as an attachment to Asia (...) the Mongol invasions of 1214 to 1552 - the most dangerous in the history of the Russian nation - came from the East, and the history of Russia, once its territorial expansion was complete, had always turned towards the West (...) Evgeny Primakov's interest in Eurasia was more a matter of circumstance and necessity than faith. Primakov undoubtedly understood better than Putin that post-Soviet Russia - sometimes described as a ‘poor power’ - no longer had the means to pursue a project in the imperial tradition. He therefore advocated cooperation, which could sometimes be conflictual, but resolutely ruled out the use of force; for him, it was a question of avoiding a complete break with the West, which would be contrary to Russia's DNA and its history of looking towards both the European continent and Asia. Primakov therefore first conceived of a Moscow-New Delhi-Beijing triangle, which was naturally integrated into his strategic thinking. This project, which was conceptualised in what came to be known as the ‘Primakov Doctrine’ in 1998, prefigured the BRICS. But this triangle could also be described as a ‘trio of asymmetries’. China's Belt and Road Initiative, for example, is likely to weaken Russian influence in the region (...) Putin took on board the foreign policy ‘software’ of his predecessor as head of government, whom he revered for having been an undisputed master of intelligence. In addition to the need for a strong state, the dialectics of the unipolar/multipolar world and the question of not enlarging NATO, have brought the current Russian President closer to his mentor (...) ► Imbalance of Terror → to be published in November 2024 by JDH Éditions ► L'Essentiel de l'Éco. → https://lnkd.in/dmvfv7Uc Nowruz in Central Asia © Patrick Pascal
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