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The IEA Has Cut Its Oil Demand Growth Forecast for 2024. Global oil demand growth is expected at just 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, due to weak first-quarter consumption in developed economies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, cutting its growth forecast by 140,000 bpd from its assessment last month. Weak deliveries of middle distillates in Europe and the United States were “enough to tip OECD oil demand in the first quarter back into contraction,” said the agency, whose demand growth projection is now less than half of the growth OPEC expects… http://ow.ly/3W0j105t5AP

Peak oil? Eyeing growth in India, Africa and the Middle East, as well as a slower adoption of EVs and greener fuels, OPEC sees global oil demand rising into 2050 and holding a nearly 30% share of the energy mix with other sources. "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon," OPEC commented, and "over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready." The group expects oil demand to reach 120.1M bbl/day in 2050 compared to 102.2M bbl/day consumed last year.

OPEC's revised oil demand outlook underscores the complex relationship between energy expansion and economic development in the Global South. As populations grow and urbanization accelerates in regions like India and Africa, traditional energy sources still remain essential to fueling growth. While clean energy innovation is progressing, OPEC’s emphasis on resistance to current targets does demonstrate the need for a more flexible, balanced approach to energy expansion. #Energy #Oil #OilAndGas

Russia's Rosneft head Igor Sechin criticized OPEC+ decisions in 2016 and 2020 for boosting U.S. shale production, making the U.S. a top energy exporter, while emphasizing Russia's role in stabilizing global energy markets; OPEC+ is expected to extend oil production cuts into 2025.

🌐 #OPEC cuts #oil demand growth forecast: In this interview given to CNBC, Dr. Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, explains how OPEC+ could proceed with its output policy for the remainder of 2024. ⛽ KEY POINTS DELIVERED: 📍The most significant headline this week is OPEC’s first downward revision to oil demand forecasts for 2024. Although this revision is minor, it marks a notable shift, especially as OPEC remains more optimistic than other agencies like the IEA, with a forecast still 1 million barrels per day higher. 📍OPEC attributes the revision to economic challenges, particularly in China, and sustained high-interest rates. Despite this, OPEC continues to describe demand growth as ‘healthy,’ signaling that the group is likely to proceed with easing some voluntary production cuts starting in Q4. It remains to be seen if further downward revisions will occur, potentially narrowing the gap between OPEC and other forecasting agencies. 📍Another key headline is OPEC’s increase in production for July, even amid output restrictions led by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran. 📍For Saudi Arabia, the rise in production partly compensates for lower output in June. Iran, not subject to OPEC quotas, has boosted its exports under the Biden Administration. Iraq, meanwhile, continues its pattern of overproduction. Interestingly, Saudi Arabia’s official reports show higher output, though slightly less than what secondary sources suggest. In contrast, Iraq’s official data does not acknowledge any additional barrels, raising questions about the accuracy of reported figures. 📍The recent recovery in oil prices is part of a broader market rebound following a mini-crisis in early August. Concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. have eased, and rising tensions in Ukraine are also contributing factors. 📍However, the data remains mixed, and given the significant volatility we’ve seen, it’s important to stay prepared for the possibility of another similar scenario.

When will the Oil Demand Peak? - The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees oil demand peaking by 2029, levelling off at around 106 million barrels per day (bpd) towards the end of the decade. It has moved forward the date for peak oil demand from 2030. - OPEC does not see a peak in oil demand in its long-term forecast and expects demand to grow to 116 million barrels a day by 2045, and may be higher. That's a huge difference in perspective - implying substantial differences in the way capital is invested in fossil fuel projects and end use technologies. The risks include multi-decade delays in energy transition, stranded assets and increasing stocks of carbon in atmosphere. It is therefore imperative to follow a no regret approach in accordance with best available scientific evidence. https://lnkd.in/dxER_SHc.

OPEC+ Frets Over U.S. Oil Output Growth Under President Trump. The OPEC+ group is wary that coming deregulation in the U.S. energy sector could boost U.S. oil production higher than forecast under incoming President Donald Trump, OPEC+ delegates have told Reuters. More U.S. oil supply could further erode OPEC+’s market share and weigh down on oil prices, which the OPEC cartel and its allies are desperately trying to support with production cuts. President-elect Trump’s return to the White House would likely mean less stringent environmental policies for the industry, “but we may see higher… http://ow.ly/KZwm105S078

Will Sales in Oil Prices Recover? 🟨 Sales in oil prices, which have been persistent in their downward potential since the beginning of the week, reached the 76.70 support level. Supply concerns continue to be effective in oil prices, which accelerated their decline after OPEC's decision to extend the production cut for 1 year. In this context, we see that US Energy Minister Granholm made a statement that the US could increase the renewal rate of its oil reserves. 🟡 UBS noted that OPEC maintains a moderately positive outlook for crude oil prices regarding OPEC's announcement of its expectations for some price fluctuations in the near term regarding supply concerns. On the other hand, the institution announced that it expects the Brent oil barrel price to be around 87 dollars at the end of the year. The IEA stated that governments must quickly turn their promises into action plans in order to achieve the goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030.

OPEC+ Frets Over U.S. Oil Output Growth Under President Trump. The OPEC+ group is wary that coming deregulation in the U.S. energy sector could boost U.S. oil production higher than forecast under incoming President Donald Trump, OPEC+ delegates have told Reuters. More U.S. oil supply could further erode OPEC+’s market share and weigh down on oil prices, which the OPEC cartel and its allies are desperately trying to support with production cuts. President-elect Trump’s return to the White House would likely mean less stringent environmental policies for the industry, “but we may see higher… http://ow.ly/KZwm105S078

Can we finally agree on an oil-market deficit in 1H2024? Yes, we can The world’s leading oil-market agencies are moving towards a consensus view of a tighter market in 2024 and a deficit in the first half of the year in the wake of the recent decision by the OPEC+ group to extend its voluntary production cuts and a more optimistic view on oil demand this year. The March reports by OPEC, the US EIA, and the IEA indicate a tightening balances perspective for 2024 compared to their February reports. Rystad Energy Raphael Faucz Bjørnar Tonhaugen Laura Claudio