Erudite Risk’s Post

[Syria - Let’s NOT Forget] Though I've never followed political developments in Syria to any reasonable amount nor do I fully appreciate the key internal players in this conflict, what I do now is this; 1) Based on hard lessons of the so called “Arab Spring” key politicians (and their decedents) that have reigned for decades over a nation do not just disappear from the scene, particularly ones that are strongly linked to the military establishment and maintain strong support with one of the polars of power in the region, be it Russia or the U.S. So the foreign meddling in Syria’s affairs will continue (probably more so now than ever cause its offers a golden opportunity) and to the detriment of the Syrian people. So ruling out Bashar Al Assad or the solid institutions built around him is much too soon despite many Syrians wanting to finally turn a page on this regime entirely. 2) Another lesson from the “Arab Spring” reversal playbook is that Islamist are likely to hijack any potential of democratic transition and again this will be used as an excuse both for foreign meddling and for the military to seek to reestablish control with/without Bashar at the helm of government Whether all this was pre-planned by foreign actors is hard to tell but certainly a possibility especially with some actors keen to use the opportunity to have a free hand in dismantling whats left of Syria's military armament/assets while others may be even eyeing the redrawing of the region altogether. That said what is obvious is that without a clear vision/leadership - which seems quite unlikely at this stage with the diverse/opposing interests involved(internal & external) - a reversal of fortunes for military gains accomplished thus far by the opposition will be short lived because their unity ends with the overthrow of Bashar Al Assad. Let’s see how things pan out in a region being demolished by conflict, foreign meddling and resource depletion; but as with anything these all have far reaching costs; Instability (Political/Economic/Security) & Migration/Displacement. #mideast #syria

The Fall of Assad: Syria's New Dawn! In a stunning turn of events, Syria’s civil war reached a dramatic climax as rebel forces overthrew Bashar al-Assad's regime and took control of Damascus on Sunday. 🇸🇾✊ The war, which began in 2011 during the Arab Spring, seemed all but won by Assad after years of support from Russia and Iran. But this week, the rebels scored a major victory. 🚨 It began with the capture of Aleppo, the first major win in years. From there, rebels seized key cities—Daraa, Quneitra, Suwayda, and Homs—before storming the capital. With Assad’s forces stretched thin and his allies preoccupied, the regime crumbled without much resistance. By Sunday, political prisoners were freed from Saydnaya prison, and Damascus erupted in celebration. The end of five decades of Assad rule saw statues of the regime toppled and hopes of freedom renewed. Reports suggest Assad fled the country, though his fate remains unclear. ❓ Prime Minister Mohammad Jalali declared readiness for a peaceful power transition. A new chapter begins for Syria. 🌅🇸🇾 #Syria #FallOfAssad #ArabSpring #Damascus #NewDawn #Freedom #Revolution #MiddleEast #BreakingNews #EndOfAnEra

Developing Story/Unconfirmed and conflicting reports: Bashar al-Assad, the former Syrian president, is no longer in power due to opposition forces' rapid advance, leading to significant changes in the country's political landscape.- by Frederic Eger - As of December 8, 2024, some reports suggest Assad has fled Syria, with some sources suggesting he may have sought refuge in Russia. Al-Assad's regime collapsed as opposition fighters captured Damascus, leading to celebrations among Syrians who feel liberated from his rule. There are speculations of asylum, with some suggesting he may have fled to Moscow, as Russian support for him appears to be waning. However, there are conflicting reports about his exact whereabouts, with some claiming his plane was shot down while attempting to escape. This marks a significant turning point after over 13 years of civil conflict and al-Assad's authoritarian rule, raising questions about the future of Syria and potential power vacuums in the region.

The Turning Point in Syria: What Happens Next? By Frank Thorwald Syria is at a critical turning point. After years of war and turmoil, Bashar al-Assad’s regime has collapsed under a rapid rebel offensive. Damascus, once the center of Assad’s power, is now a symbol of freedom as citizens reclaim their city. Assad’s whereabouts remain unclear, with reports suggesting he may have perished in a plane crash near Homs. What happens next for Syria? For more on Assad’s fall, visit Reuters: https://lnkd.in/g5UZhha4. --- The Rebels and Their Allies Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading rebel faction, has relied heavily on Turkey for support. While the U.S. has cooperated with some rebels in the past, its involvement has been limited. HTS is openly hostile toward Iran and Hezbollah, both strong Assad allies. Though some rebel groups have received aid from Israel, HTS maintains an adversarial stance. For more on these alliances, visit The Wall Street Journal: https://lnkd.in/gwxP253t. --- What’s Next for Syria? HTS and other rebels claim they want free elections and democratic governance. In Aleppo, they’ve already begun providing essential services to prove they can lead. However, skepticism persists due to HTS’s Islamist roots and its controversial past. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has pledged to transfer power to a transitional body and has reached out to minority groups. Still, many doubt their ability to unite and lead Syria. Learn more at the Financial Times: https://lnkd.in/gNe-cKh3. --- Broader Implications The rebels’ victory has disrupted the Middle East’s balance of power, weakening Iran and Hezbollah while drawing Israel’s attention. A stable, democratic Syria could bring significant change to the region. For more, visit The Jerusalem Post: https://lnkd.in/gyyT_ZZX. --- Your Thoughts Syria’s future remains uncertain. Can the rebels overcome challenges to rebuild a united Syria, or are greater difficulties ahead? Share your thoughts below. This article is based on verified sources. Links provide additional context.

Excerpt: "“Occupied Gaza.” Prior to October 7, there were roughly two million Arab citizens of Israel but no Jewish citizens in Gaza. Gazans in 2006 voted in Hamas to rule them. It summarily executed its Palestinian Authority rivals. Hamas cancelled all future scheduled elections. It established a dictatorship and diverted hundreds of billions of dollars in international aid to build a vast underground labyrinth of military installations. So Gaza has been occupied by Hamas, not Israel, for two decades. “Collateral Damage.” Hamas began the war by deliberately targeting civilians. It massacred them on October 7 when it invaded Israel during a time of peace and holidays. It sent more than 7,000 rockets into Israeli cities for the sole purpose of killing noncombatants. It has no vocabulary for the collateral damage of Israeli civilians, since it believes any Jewish death under any circumstances is cause for celebration. "Hamas places its terrorist centers beneath and inside hospitals, schools, and mosques. Why? Israel is assumed to have more reservations about collaterally hitting Gaza civilians than Hamas does exposing them as human shields. #truthmatters #factsmatter #mediabias #mediahype #hypocrisy #israel #gaza #istandwithisrael https://lnkd.in/gwqUx_E7

Looking at the CIA 2020 data, one understands why Lebanon is often ungovernable: the religious affiliation of its citizens. Sunni Muslims make up of 31.9% of the population, Shia 31.2% plus smaller percentages of Alawites and Ismailis, Christian 32.4% (Maronite Catholics are the largest Christian group), Druze 4.5%, very small numbers of Jews, Baha'is, Buddhists, and Hindus. The sizable Syrian and Palestinian refugees aren’t included. Lebanese want stability after their 1975-1990 civil war. Although Shiites see Israel as an enemy, they fear that Hezbollah’s cross-border attacks on Israel could draw them into a war. Lebanon served as a support base for Palestinian militants who frequently clashed with Israel during the 1970s and 1980s. In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon in response to attacks carried out by Palestinian militants from Lebanon, triggering a three-month War. Border clashes erupt frequently between Israel and Hezbollah, that controls southern Lebanon. While Shiites have trust in Hezbollah, but not the Christians, Sunnis, and Druze. There is not broad support among Lebanese for Hezbollah's role in regional politics. Hezbollah is not only a political party that wields enormous power, it has an exceptionally strong military wing, perhaps even stronger than the Lebanese Army. As it acts as a proxy of Iran and opposes Israel and the US operating in the Middle East, there will be no peace in the region as long as the Israel-Palestinian conflict remains unresolved.

The fall of Syria’s Assad regime will reshape the country, with reverberations across the Middle East and beyond. Syrians deserve a respite to celebrate this moment, to begin recovering from the trauma of war and oppression, to welcome home prisoners rescued from the regime’s dungeons, and to mourn all those they have lost. Refugees deserve safety to return to. For citizens uneasy about what HTS rule might bring, assurances are needed that one autocratic clique won’t simply replace another. Most importantly, Syrians deserve the chance to rebuild their polity and society on their own terms. Outside powers, who helped drive Syria’s immensely destructive war, now need to avoid destabilising interference and help Syrians remake their country for the better. https://lnkd.in/e8tjVxMT

https://lnkd.in/diPiaHUt The Fall of Bashar al-Assad and Syria’s Unfinished Business Alexander Patterson 9 December 2024 The situation in Syria has dramatically shifted, radically altering a status quo that has largely remained in place for over four years, and toppling a leader against whom the country rebelled nearly 14 years ago. Levantine history teaches us to be deeply concerned when dealing with such a fractious society in trauma after a decade of internecine war, torn in different directions by various foreign and non-state actors.  But in effect, developments since 27 November may have forced a de facto shift that leapfrogs the ‘ceasefire, political settlement and transition’ foreseen in 2015’s UN Security Council Resolution 2254. With Assad gone, so is a major obstacle to progress. Political deals in the four years since the situation in Syria somewhat stabilised have created new channels for dialogue. The bones of a plan to win a peace exist. Beyond the geopolitical ‘so whats’, if asked, many, many Syrians will tell you they are overjoyed, sad, worried and hopeful all at once. Only one thing is for certain: Assad is gone, not with a bang but with a whimper. The opportunities are many; the risks are blindingly clear. We must hope that at least some lessons about pluralistic governance, human security and the centrality of the social contract have been learned from two decades of the global war on terror, the mis-named Arab ‘Spring’, Assad’s hyperviolent and cynical survival strategy, and a wretched collection of short-sighted policies from the international community in response. 

Iran's influence in the Middle East is rapidly waning as its network of proxies and allies, including the Assad regime in Syria, suffers significant setbacks. The Iranian government now faces a critical crossroads: either pursue pragmatism and meaningful negotiations with the West or double down on its current policies. The erosion of Iran's "axis of resistance," coupled with the weakening of key allies like Hamas and Hezbollah, has left Tehran increasingly vulnerable, with fewer options to sustain its regional dominance or achieve its geopolitical objectives. #Syria https://lnkd.in/dUx2d3cu

How hard is it to listen to citizens? Yes, there will be Syrians who support Assad, but the majority have made it clear, again and again in recent years that they want a different leader. Where meanwhile Western power ignored not only this voice, but also International law. What has happened in Syria in the past week is unprecedented and absolutely extraordinary. After years of oppression and the most atrocities, then now at breakneck speed others than Assad are taking over the country. Hardly any fighting, as the army is either already gone or laying down its weapons and then, as here in Suwayda, being supplied with food by the civilians. 'Syria is one' is the text they call Era of Assad seems to be over Which is not to say that all is safe and well after that With years of struggle, ignoring infrastructure, of the people. Years of communication of distrust. The powers outside that have their interests. Trust is needed. Rest to not just react from the moment, but awareness of the challenges, of the mistakes that will be made. I wish all Syrians, all confidence, strength and wisdom for the difficult and hard time ahead. A time of hope and possibility. Where difference is the strength of and for the future