FBNQuest’s Post

According to the most recent Statistical Quarterly Bulletin (QSB) from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria's total value of merchandise trade decreased by -7% q/q and -15% y/y to USD24.8bn in Q1 '24. The lower trade value in Q1 reflects a reduction in import and export trade value. Specifically, export trade figures declined by -5% q/q and -1% y/y to USD14.2bn. On the other hand, the value of import trade fell by -9% q/q and -29% y/y to USD10.6bn. The CBN's QSB data is provisional and, as such, is subject to revisions in subsequent series. #FBNQuestResearch

In its latest monthly economic publication, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed that the total value of Nigeria’s merchandise trade increased by a modest c.1% m/m to USD 7.8bn in Apr ’24. However, on a y/y basis, the merchandise trade value was -15% lower y/y due to a significant decrease (-32% y/y) in import trade value. The higher m/m trade value reflects increases in both export and import trade values. While export receipts increased mildly by c.1% m/m to USD4.9bn, merchandise imports rose by c.3% to USD2.9bn. As a result, the external trade position resulted in a lower net trade surplus of USD2.0bn in Apr ’24, compared with USD2.1bn the previous month. It is worth noting that the monthly trade performance data provided by the CBN is provisional and subject to revisions in subsequent reports. #FBNQuestResearch

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) forecasts a resurgence in imports for the current year, driven by a stabilized exchange rate and improved dollar availability compared to the previous year. This projection comes as the apex bank anticipates an 11 percent growth in imports, following a decline observed last year due to challenges in accessing foreign currency and a sharp depreciation of the Kenyan shilling. https://bit.ly/3TPCpmA

Despite rising imports, the continued strength in merchandise exports, tourism earnings and remittances, boosted Sri Lanka’s Gross Official Reserves to USD 5,992 million in September 2024 (includes the swap facility from the People’s Bank of China). This represents a significant improvement from the USD 4,400 million level in December 2023, though it remained flat compared to the previous month. The Central Bank remained a net buyer of USD for the third consecutive month, making net purchases of USD 96 million from the domestic FX market in September 2024.

Rising taka-dollar exchange rate affects trade competitiveness Businesses lose out as the real effective exchange rate (REER) index rose to 102.97 in October from 100.40 in September that signals a decline in the competitiveness of Bangladesh's currency in international trade, sources say. According to the latest measure for October 2024, prepared by Bangladesh Bank, the central bank, this increase reflects the rising price levels in Bangladesh compared to its 15-currency-trade-basket partners. Sources in business and banking circles sound alarm that this development could adversely impact the country's export performance.

Nigeria's Q1 trade surplus showcases a significant increase, yet the country continues to heavily rely on oil exports. How can Nigeria accelerate diversification to boost non-oil trade? Meanwhile, US Markets are bracing for the May inflation CPI data and FOMC meeting and policy decision. In the UK, the FCA is introducing new rules to attract listings.... plus more valuable insights. #globalbusinessinsights #businessnews #business #globaleconomics #usfomc #federalreserve #usfed #Nigeriainflation #uscpi #nigeriacpi #nigeriatradesurplus #nigeriatradedataq1 #q12024tradenigeria # UKFCA #newlistingrulesuk

In this chat with Samson G SIMON, Ph.D., CPLP, we looked beyond the announced surplus and asked questions like: - What factors are responsible for the high increase in export YoY? - How diversified is Nigeria's export? - When adjusted for inflation and currency devaluation, is there any significant change? - What's responsible for decline in Merchandise trade? - Should we celebrate reduced import or are there underlying unimpressive factors responsible for that? Follow link and enjoy. Let me get your thoughts too in the comment section. https://lnkd.in/dbHcXpAg

➡️ Inflation-driven "REER" rise dents trade competitiveness. Real effective exchange rate index soars to 104 in November. ➡️ Bangladesh's currency gets overvalued driven by higher domestic inflation compared to its trading economies with the prospect of export and remittance losing out. ➡️ The real effective exchange rate (REER) index-a key measure of currency valuation-rose to 102.97 in October and to 104 in November, up from its fair value of 100.09 in September 2024, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

Bangladesh's gross foreign exchange reserve has reached $20.17 billion as of December 23, according to Bangladesh Bank spokesperson Husne Ara Shikha. The reserve, calculated using the IMF's BPM6 formula, stands at $24.99 billion under the BPM5 calculation method. Earlier confusion between gross remittance and gross reserve figures led to temporary misreporting of the numbers. The foreign exchange reserve has maintained stability between $19-20 billion under the interim government, which aligned dollar prices with market demand at Tk120. Bangladesh Bank has stopped selling dollars from the forex reserve since August 5, while banks are currently spending Tk127.70 per remittance dollar amid increased import activities. Central bank data indicates positive economic indicators during July-October of the current fiscal year. Imports grew by 1%, compared to negative 10% in FY24, while remittance increased by 30% and exports rose by 8%. The improved dollar availability has enabled banks to ease restrictions on Letters of Credit (LC) openings. Source: The Business Standard (https://bit.ly/3BG1A6a)

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT FOR OCTOBER 2024 IS OUT. Highlights: 👉 In October 2024, the Kenyan #Shilling appreciated against the Sterling Pound, Euro, and Japanese Yen, while remaining stable against the US #Dollar but depreciating against the South African Rand and Ugandan Shilling. 👉 The Central Bank of Kenya lowered its benchmark interest rate to 12.00 per cent. The average yield rate for 91-day Treasury Bills and interbank rates declined, while the commercial bank lending rate increased and the deposit rate decreased. 👉 The #NSE 20 Share Index rose alongside equity transactions and share volumes, though equity turnover slightly fell. 👉 Agricultural production saw mixed performance, with increased cane deliveries but declines in coffee and tea exports. Trade volumes grew to KSh 332.8 billion, driven by higher imports, while exports fell, with Uganda and the USA as top destinations and China and the UAE leading imports. 👉 Mobile money transactions and subscriptions increased, though agent numbers declined, and the telecommunications equipment trade contracted. Electricity generation and imports rose. 👉 Manufacturing showed varied trends, with growth in soft drink and galvanized sheet production but declines in sugar production and vehicle assembly. Click here 👇 for more details. https://lnkd.in/daghhAvu