Fletcher Russia & Eurasia Program’s Post

I highly recommend this insightful article by ZVIAD ADZINBAIA, a fellow The Fletcher School at Tufts University community member with firsthand experience in Georgia and Ukraine. Adzinbaia argues that abandoning Georgia to the Kremlin would be a major geopolitical blunder. He highlights the democratic crisis following the disputed October parliamentary elections, aptly stating, "The country now stands at a pivotal crossroads in its modern history, with the outcome of the current confrontation set to have geopolitical consequences that will reverberate far beyond Georgia’s borders." This piece is a must-read for anyone interested in the future of democracy and stability in the region. #Georgia #Ukraine #GeopoliticalRisk #NationalSecurity #InternationalRelations #Energy #China #StrategicCompetition #Elections2024 https://lnkd.in/gTaTvyb9

🗳️ Georgia on the Brink: The Risks of Belarusification of Georgia As Georgia approaches its highly anticipated parliamentary elections on October 26, 2024, the atmosphere is tense. The ruling Georgian Dream party, led by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, has shifted from pro-European to pro-Russian rhetoric, raising fears of electoral manipulation and democratic backsliding. A new "Foreign Agent" law, modeled after Russia’s, targets NGOs and opposition groups, echoing Moscow’s authoritarian tactics. With growing allegations of voter fraud, increased repression of protests, and Russian media warning of Western-backed "revolutions," the parallels with Belarus are becoming alarmingly clear. The elections will coincide with the US elections, raising concerns about a lack of Western intervention if tensions escalate. As the election nears, the risk of civil unrest, Russian intervention, or further restrictions on freedoms looms large. Will Georgia follow the path of Belarus, or can it maintain its commitment to European integration? Read the full article to understand the stakes—and what’s at risk for Georgia’s future. (https://lnkd.in/eEGtRbZg) Have an analysis or article you'd like to share? We're open to submissions—reach out to get your work published! #Georgia #parliamentaryelections #Belarus #Russia #GlobalScholarPerspective Image source: https://lnkd.in/e44qAv8g Article by Zarandia Louis Sandro

𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗨 𝗔𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 As elections approach, the European Union is actively monitoring for interference, a prudent step considering the geopolitical implications. The EU’s vigilance involves assessing threats, implementing defensive actions, and ensuring transparent communication with its citizens. These difficult circumstances are not unique to the EU. Nations worldwide are learning to counteract foreign interference. Canada, while facing similar challenges, is lagging in approach and action. We need to learn from the many worldwide best practices and improve quickly. #foreigninterference #hybridwarfare

HOW CAN HE BE SO IGNORANT? First, Donald Trump Jr is in contradiction with the US State Department: - Statement on Romania’s Presidential Elections https://lnkd.in/gh-52hHq - Statement on Romanian Constitutional Court’s Ruling on Romania’s Presidential Elections https://lnkd.in/gKdnF2gY Second, his position is convergent with the pro-Russian candidate that was part of Kremlin's "special operation" to takeover Romania's control. That candidate has an anti-Western, anti-American attitude. He's probably ignoring that. Third, he doesn't understand the Romanian political scene, proven by his reference to "Soros/Marxist attempt" which is certainly something from another movie, at least in the case of the elections in discussion. Fourth, this was a Russian underground operation against Romania. How to take position, as an American, on the side of Russia against Romania, a NATO ally? Fifth, I wonder which part of "PROVEN RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE" doesn't he understand, in regard to these Romanian elections? Read this: RUSSIA'S ATTACK ON ROMANIA https://lnkd.in/dACiu8QS THE RUSSIAN BULLET PASSED BY OUR EARS https://lnkd.in/dJYWYGqp WHEN YOU ARE DEAD ... https://lnkd.in/duUbFSbB

This article talks about the crucial need for a united front/commitment across Europe, specifically regarding Russian aggression and its growing threat. Rather importantly, this wake-up call comes from a nation that really knows its neighbour, and which warned of the reality of a Ukrainian invasion while most others kept their heads in the sand and said it would never happen. The article’s main message states the obvious; - That the forthcoming elections, and who people vote for, has the potential to underpin, or undermine, the level of commitment and thus the ability to combat the growing threat. Given my various roles I became non-party political long ago; but now more than ever I would urge people to think carefully about the bigger global picture, and listen to the countries that know the nature of the threat, before ticking any box. 'Vote or face war': Poland PM's stark warning ahead of EU election https://lnkd.in/eMstr8UC

Georgia on the Path to a Maidan? What external and internal forces are working against the ruling party and leadership of Georgia in the run-up to the parliamentary elections. Full text: https://lnkd.in/eEpJvcS8 #news #politics #economics #business #foreignpolicy #internationalrelations

Good update on the state of Ukrainian politics from Mikhail Mykhailo Minakov, especially these three observations synthesized from various opposition members in Ukraine: "First, the Zelensky team’s informal focus on ties with Democrats could now create a backlash in the form of much cooler relations with Republicans. This would undermine the Zelensky administration’s once undisputed dominance of internal politics. Second, President Zelensky will probably try to accelerate indirect diplomatic processes to freeze the war. Kyiv may be in a stronger position during such negotiations while the Democrats are still in control of the White House and Senate. Third, the role of ex-president Poroshenko in Ukrainian politics is expected to increase. After five years on the margins of power, Poroshenko is slowly moving back to the center. He had rather productive relations with both Joe Biden and Donald Trump during their respective presidencies. Poroshenko’s party ideology is close to the current GOP’s in some matters. And Poroshenko, who has recently declared his intent to participate in presidential elections whenever they are announced, may find the global ideological turn to the right working in his favor."

Georgia on the Path to a Maidan? What external and internal forces are working against the ruling party and leadership of Georgia in the run-up to the parliamentary elections. Full text: https://lnkd.in/e_J683Rz #news #politics #economics #business #foreignpolicy #internationalrelations

The content of our weekly ViewsLetter "Making Sense of this World" is available on Rosa Roubini Associates' website. In my column, titled “Global Politics In Turmoil: What Will Emerge From The Chaos?”, I discuss: 1. The result of the second round of the #French legislative elections; 2. Victor #Orban’s visit to #Kiev and #Moscow and the outcry it created in Brussels; 3. Marine #LePen’s announcement that she would have withdrawn her authorisation to use the long-distance weapons supplied by France to Ukraine if she had won; 4. In #US, how Democrat donors are asking Joe #Biden to step aside; 5. The two emerging scandals for #Trump: his involvement with Epstein and on #Project2025; and 6. The results of the #UK elections, with its orderly and civilised transition of power. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/dHv6f6Z

The content of our weekly ViewsLetter "Making Sense of this World" is available on Rosa Roubini Associates' website. In his column, titled “Global Politics In Turmoil: What Will Emerge From The Chaos?”, Prof. Brunello Rosa reviews and discusses: 1. The result of the second round of the #French legislative elections; 2. Victor #Orban’s visit to #Kiev and #Moscow and the outcry it created in Brussels; 3. Marine #LePen’s announcement that she would have withdrawn her authorisation to use the long-distance weapons supplied by France to Ukraine if she had won; 4. In #US, how Democrat donors are asking Joe #Biden to step aside; 5. The two emerging scandals for #Trump: his involvement with Epstein and on Project 2025; and 6. The results of the #UK elections, with its orderly and civilised transition of power. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/dHv6f6Z