Gulf Daily News - GDN’s Post

US employment increased solidly in June, but government hiring accounted for more than a third of the payrolls gain and the unemployment rate hit a two-and-a-half-year high of 4.1 per cent, pointing to a slackening labour market that keeps the Federal Reserve on course to start cutting interest rates this year. The Labour Department’s closely watched employment report yesterday also showed the economy created 111,000 fewer jobs in April and May than previously estimated, suggesting the trend in payrolls growth was slowing. Annual wages increased at the slowest pace in three years as the labour pool expanded, adding to the flashing warning signals in the jobs market. About 277,000 people entered the labour force last month, accounting for the increase in the jobless rate from 4pc in May to the highest level since November 2021. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dnnTC6wY

U.S. employment increased less than expected in August, but a drop in the jobless rate to 4.2 per cent suggested an orderly labour market slowdown continued and probably did not warrant a big interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 89,000 rise in July, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 160,000 jobs after a previously reported 114,000 gain in July. Estimates ranged from 100,000 to 245,000 jobs. https://lnkd.in/edkEeDWu

Today’s Employment report is likely to show payrolls of 200,000 jobs in March, after creating 275,000 jobs in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings likely gained 0.3% on a monthly basis in March.

The U.S. labor market strengthened during the month of March as revealed by the latest data from the government this morning. Employers added 303,000 net new jobs to their payrolls in the latest month, which represented a much stronger than expected reading versus the 214,000 consensus estimate. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to 3.8% this past month, while the labor force participation rate increased to 62.7% during March. Job gains were fairly broad based during the latest month, led by gains within the health care, government and leisure and hospitality sectors of the economy. With the labor market remaining vibrant through the first quarter of 2024, this may result in the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates on hold longer than what many investors had previously forecasted.

The U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, the Labor Department said Friday. Last month’s gain in nonfarm payrolls was the biggest since March and well above the 155,000 jobs that economists had expected, according to a Wall Street Journal survey. The unemployment rate was also better than the expected 4.2%.

The US economy added fewer jobs than expected in July, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, furthering signs of a slowdown in the labor market. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the labor market added 114,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July, fewer additions than the 175,000 expected by economists. #mudragunafundsmart #usa #economy #unemployment #BureauofLaborStatistics #labormarket

”What is happening with US government jobs data? The September jobs report shows the economy created 785,000 new government jobs, the second-largest monthly increase on record. Government jobs also accounted for a whopping 85% increase in total payrolls in the household survey. In effect, the number of government workers hit a new all-time high of 22.2 million. This helped push the unemployment rate down to from 4.2% to 4.1% Without government jobs, the unemployment rate would have been as high as 4.5%. Something really does not add up here” https://lnkd.in/gBxXTezR

The teetering U.S. labor market grew by less than expected last month, according to a Friday release from the Labor Department, sending a chill through Wall Street as the threat of a recession lingers. The Labor Department said U.S. employers reported an increase of 142,000 nonfarm payrolls in August, up from July’s initially reported 114,000 jobs added but falling short of economist estimates of 160,000, according to FactSet. https://trib.al/5lvlLlE

US Labour Market Data At 1330 this afternoon, attention will turn to the release of US labour market data. Here, the general market consensus is expecting a #Nonfarms payroll #nfp print of 200,000 marking a slowdown from last month’s figure of 275,000. If the consensus is realised, March’s payrolls number would also mark the lowest reading in four months. While this may be indicative of some softening in the world’s largest economy’s jobs market, the US labour market continues to historically tight. Indeed, while analysts are pointing to a softer print it remains well above the 100,000 figure that last year #Powell cited as a level which is in line with population growth while not overly impacting inflationary pressures. Elsewhere, #unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%, while average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 0.3% - a slight uptick from last month’s figure of 0.1%. Again, if this is realised, annual wage growth will be at its lowest level since June 2021.

Concerns of excessive weakness in the labor market were abruptly shelved this morning after an unexpectedly strong September employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced +254k workers were added to company payrolls last month, up from the previously reported +142k count in August, while the headline unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. It’s notable that since “the Sahm Rule” was triggered two months ago, stoking recession fears, the unemployment rate has reversed direction, moving lower in both August and September. Read our latest Economic Commentary by Senior Portfolio Manager Scott McIntyre, CFA here: https://lnkd.in/g-Vi5kMT #HilltopSecurities #Commentary #LaborMarket