💼 The market sentiment has turned weak. 💼 Sustained FPI selling (Rs 69,000 crores in January, so far) is impacting the market. 💼 Despite DII buying of Rs 67,000 crores in January, so far, the market is under pressure. 💼 A major concern is that President Trump is coming up with new threats, like the 25% tariff on Columbia for its refusal to take back deported illegal immigrants. 💼 The threatened 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico might be implemented from February 1st onwards. 💼 Therefore, whether Trump will walk his talk on other threats, including tariffs on China and other countries, is a question being asked in economic and market circles now. These concerns are weighing on the markets. 💼 This 6-day week is likely to be highly volatile, with other major events like the Fed decision and the Budget in India. 💼 The market is looking forward to fiscal stimulus through income tax cuts in the Budget. 💼 If the expectations are met, there can be a relief rally in the market. 💼 But if a rally is to sustain, we need data indicating growth and earnings revival. . . . #StockMarket #inflation #GeojitOutlook #MarketUpdate #InvestmentOpportunity #EmergingMarkets
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Things That Stick Out: Friday Edition Most traders know that by the time a trade makes the front page of the NY Times, you should be out the door, or at least standing near it. Today’s edition: US Bond Market Braces for the ‘Trump Trade’ of Large Tariffs and Deficits The Times frames this as a new threat, apparently unaware of the current administration’s tariff and deficit spending policies. And as if on cue, forward inflation breakevens turned sharply lower Friday, helped in part by a third monthly decline in core capital goods shipments. (See chart below) As we wrote earlier this week, with global macro conditions deteriorating, the recent move higher in rates is a fade rather than a trend to embrace. See: Things That Stick Out: Election Trade Edition, Part 2 and Things That Stick Out: Beige Book Edition See original IGM post here: https://lnkd.in/eDFTnVPg IGM | Informa Connect #inflation #recession #interestrates #federalreserve #election #financialmarkets
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S&P Futures have moved from flat to lower to higher. Multiple catalysts are creating volatility this morning. Late yesterday, President-elect Trump made his first comments on his tariff plan since being elected. Trump indicated that he is considering placing tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. The Biden Administration is proposing anti-obesity drugs be covered by Medicare and Medicaid. Israel's security cabinet set to vote on a cease-fire deal that would halt fighting between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon. On the Economic front the key report this morning will be the data on Consumer Confidence. This afternoon the Fed will release the meeting minutes from the last Fed meeting. Today is a busy day for earnings announcement as DELL, CRWD, WDAY, ADSK HPQ URBN and others will be reporting after the bell. In Europe, stocks are lower as Europe is seen as the big loser in any trade war. Oil prices showing gains ahead of stockpiles reports. #stockmarket #businessnews #businesspodcast #dailypodcast #stockstowatch #economy https://lnkd.in/eUSZgQm2
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Inflation's downtrend may not be as straightforward as some investors think, according to Charles Schwab. The brokerage firm pointed to elements that could push prices higher, like Trump's tariffs and tax cuts. Strategists highlighted four things that could signal if inflation will pick up momentum.
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🏦 Trump: First Day Of Business 🕯 Bond markets began to stabilize ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration on Monday after US core inflation data for December showed slower growth (+0.2% m/m vs. Nov. +0.3%). 📉 Declining inflation in hotels, core goods, and healthcare contributed to the trend, but housing and non-housing services inflation remained subdued. 📈 Markets gained additional momentum on Thursday when the Fed's Christopher Waller hinted that three or four rate cuts could be on the cards this year if data supports such a move. 🐳 While Trump's victory has stoked inflation concerns, current data suggests the disinflationary trend is continuing, and the Fed is expected to cut rates again in March. 🍿 Geopolitics: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is set to begin Sunday, but the details of the agreement and its implementation remain uncertain. The future of the Gaza administration remains a major question mark. 🐳 Trump's actions: Trump is expected to issue up to 100 executive orders next week, covering tariffs, immigration, and regulations. Tariff-related announcements are expected to be the main focus, with only select tariffs likely to be announced for now. 🛒 Economic Data and Expectations: 🔼 January Flash PMI data is expected to show a recovery in the eurozone composite index to a neutral 50.0 (Dec. 49.6). The Manufacturing Index is expected to remain below 50, indicating contraction but at a slower pace. 🛍 The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday. The market sees an 80% chance of this decision.
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Nomura now sees just one Fed rate cut in 2025 after Trump win. (07.11.24) Nomura adjusts Fed assumptions: Nomura anticipates that the Fed will respond cautiously to a Trump administration focused on tariffs and tax policies, which could be inflationary and growth-dampening. The Fed is expected to make two more cuts this year, with only one cut in 2025, followed by a pause and gradual easing in 2026. Affin Moneybrokers Sdn Bhd.
Nomura now sees just one Fed rate cut in 2025 after Trump win. (07.11.24) Nomura adjusts Fed assumptions: Nomura anticipates that the Fed will respond cautiously to a Trump administration focused on tariffs and tax policies, which could be inflationary and growth-dampening. The Fed is expected to make two more cuts this year, with only one cut in 2025, followed by a pause and gradual easing in 2026. Key Points: Economic Policy Focus: Nomura expects Trump’s second term to prioritize tariffs and tax policies, which could increase inflation and reduce growth. Fed Rate Cut Path: Nomura now expects the FOMC to ease twice more this year, followed by just one cut in 2025. Nomura then expect a prolonged pause, followed by 50bp of cuts in mid-2026. Raised Terminal Rate: Nomura has raised its terminal rate forecast to 3.625% (from 3.125%) due to anticipated inflationary pressures from tariffs. Conclusion: Nomura expects a cautious Fed response under a second Trump administration, with gradual cuts as the FOMC navigates inflationary pressures from tariffs. The updated terminal rate reflects a cautious stance, balancing inflation risks with the potential for slower growth. #affinmoneybrokers
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I found this surprising. 5-year ahead inflation expectations jumped in October as the likelihood of a Trump victory became more apparent. (Driven by expectations of pro-growth policies + tariffs). However, post-election, inflation expectations have remained fairly stable, ranging from a low of 2.31% to a high of 2.46% (day after election). A few possibilities: 1: Markets are not fully pricing in the inflationary impact of incoming policy. 2: Markets are betting that the Fed will be able to manage inflationary fiscal policy through a higher neutral interest rate. 3: The inflation impact of incoming policy priorities is not cut and dry (with the exception of tariffs), with several moves expected to impact both supply and demand. While all might be having a partial impact, my money is on scenario No. 2.
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Nomura now sees just one Fed rate cut in 2025 after Trump win. (07.11.24) Nomura adjusts Fed assumptions: Nomura anticipates that the Fed will respond cautiously to a Trump administration focused on tariffs and tax policies, which could be inflationary and growth-dampening. The Fed is expected to make two more cuts this year, with only one cut in 2025, followed by a pause and gradual easing in 2026. Key Points: Economic Policy Focus: Nomura expects Trump’s second term to prioritize tariffs and tax policies, which could increase inflation and reduce growth. Fed Rate Cut Path: Nomura now expects the FOMC to ease twice more this year, followed by just one cut in 2025. Nomura then expect a prolonged pause, followed by 50bp of cuts in mid-2026. Raised Terminal Rate: Nomura has raised its terminal rate forecast to 3.625% (from 3.125%) due to anticipated inflationary pressures from tariffs. Conclusion: Nomura expects a cautious Fed response under a second Trump administration, with gradual cuts as the FOMC navigates inflationary pressures from tariffs. The updated terminal rate reflects a cautious stance, balancing inflation risks with the potential for slower growth. #affinmoneybrokers
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Inflation's downtrend may not be as straightforward as some investors think, according to Charles Schwab. The brokerage firm pointed to elements that could push prices higher, like Trump's tariffs and tax cuts. Strategists highlighted four things that could signal if inflation will pick up momentum.
4 signs of re-inflation investors should watch out for, Charles Schwab says
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👇Today's Insights👇 Amid inflation uncertainties and economic concerns, the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates in December. Jerome Powell underscores the strength of the U.S. economy, which gives the Fed room to delay cuts despite risks from President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs. The Fed is expected to reduce rates for the third time this year, with borrowing costs staying elevated. The article also touches on the potential challenge to the Fed's independence under Trump’s administration, as his advisers suggest increasing control over Fed decisions. 👇Click the link to Read more... https://lnnk.in/dptR #FederalReserve #PlatformX #InterestRates #EconomicPolicy #RateCut #EconomicOutlook #PoliticalChallenges #MonetaryPolicy #GlobalEconomy #FinanceNews #MarketTrends #EconomicAnalysis #PolicyUncertainty #FedDecisions #USEconomy #FiscalPolicy
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