Global Policy Institute (GPI)’s Post

Syria's Current Situation and Future Outlook —— Check the full article here: Jadetimes.com | Political News —— Visit the link in our bio. #Jadetimes #PoliticalNews #SyriaCrisis #MiddleEastConflict #FutureOutlook #HumanitarianAid #GlobalDiplomacy

A timely new analysis from Rasim Koç on mepc.org explores Turkey's influence in Syria and how Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham developed into a potent force capable of taking down the Assad regime. What's next for the long-suffering state? https://lnkd.in/e3J__U9Z

The Islamic armed factions controlling the western part of Syria will not endure for long, as they lack a comprehensive national project and a clear strategy for resolving the crisis. Their reliance on narrow religious ideologies and limited external support renders them incapable of presenting a future vision for Syria. On the other hand, the Syrian regime insists on centralized dominance and refuses to acknowledge the national and cultural diversity of the Kurdish population, the political role of the Druze, or other components, deepening its internal and external isolation. The Kurdish self-administration, despite providing stable governance in its areas for 11 years, faces significant challenges due to the lack of international recognition and weak infrastructure. The Druze community, meanwhile, seeks to maintain relative neutrality but lacks political representation that articulates its interests in Syria’s future. The main problem lies in the absence of a national project, which creates a lack of trust among components and exacerbates political and economic weaknesses. The solution lies in building a comprehensive national project based on acknowledging diversity and drafting a new social contract that ensures the rights of all Syrians. Transitioning to a federal or decentralized system could provide fair representation and strengthen local governance. Efforts must focus on drying up sources of terrorism and exerting international pressure to halt external funding for extremist factions while launching comprehensive reconstruction programs and ensuring fair economic development. An international solution must ensure Syria’s neutrality in regional conflicts and push towards an inclusive political transition under UN auspices. In summary, the only solution is to build a state that embraces all citizens and relies on equality and justice to achieve sustainable stability.

Considering the fact #MiddleEast region's FUTURE #Peace & #Geo-#Political STABILITY depends on the OUTCOME on the following FRONTS: 1) SETTLEMENT on the #Israeli-#Palestinian CONFLICT Scenario & 2) (Potential) CONFLICTS/Issues among the #MiddleEast STATES (most notably between #Israel-#Arab STATES & #Israel-#Iran) 1) SETTLEMENT of the #Israeli-#Palestinian PROBLEM: With the OBJECTIVE to AVERT any (potential) INVASION of #Gaza/#Rafah AREAS - it'll be quite JUDICIOUS for #Israel to ANNOUNCE (potential) ROADMAP to SETTLE the #Palestinian & #Gaza's GOVERNANCE #Issues by CONSTITUTING #Palestinian OR #Arab #Civic #Society LEADERSHIP or GROUPING to MANAGE the day-to-day AFFAIRS of #Palestinian AREAS - so that it PAVES THE WAY for any #Formal #Resolution of the #Palestinian QUESTION MOREOVER, While (recent) REPORTS suggest that the #Palestinian #Militant GROUP (#Hamas) had PLANNED to RENOUNCE #Violence & RETURN to #Mainstream #Civilian RULE, in the Event of #Settlement to the #Palestinian #PROBLEM - #Israel will have to SEIZE the OPPORTUNITY to #Settle the #Palestinian #Issue, at the EARLIEST - so that any (further) INVASION/#Destruction of #Palestinian AREAS are AVOIDED 2) (Potential) CONFLICTS/Issues among the #MiddleEast STATES: Quite IMPERATIVE for the #Arab #States to (Immediately) CONVENE any (potential) #Peace #Conference to SETTLE (Outstanding) #Disputes/#Issues among themselves AND with #Israel OR with any #MiddleEast's CONSTITUENT #States, going forward

The fall of Assad's regime in Syria has sent ripples through the region's economy. From disrupted trade routes to reconstruction opportunities, the Middle East stands at a pivotal crossroads. Explore how this historic shift is reshaping the economic landscape. #MiddleEast #Syria #EconomicImpact #RegionalStability #GlobalMarkets https://lnkd.in/dBKGFCyS

At the #UNSC open debate on the situation in the #MiddleEast, including the #Palestinian Question today, #Egypt reiterated the imperative of stopping the Israeli war in #Gaza immediately. The ongoing ten months onslaught against Palestinians in Gaza should never be normalized. The Middle East is on the brink of an all out regional conflict, and Israel has to make its choice: does it want peace and regional integration, or endless war and conflict? The war has to stop and be replaced with a new political horizon, leading to two States living in peace side by side. The first step? Full Palestinian membership at the #UN.

[RECORDING] Syria After Assad: A Turning Point for the Middle East? The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad has sent shockwaves through the Middle East, triggering a rapidly evolving and potentially volatile geopolitical situation. With neighbouring powers vying for influence, Israel conducting decisive airstrikes, and questions surrounding Syria’s governance and stability, the stakes could not be higher. Explore the critical turning point in Middle Eastern politics with our exclusive webinar, “Syria After Assad: A Turning Point for the Middle East?”. This in-depth discussion brings together leading geopolitical and regional experts to analyse the aftermath of the Assad regime’s collapse and its impact on Syria and neighbouring regions. Key Topics of Discussion • The challenges of establishing stability and governance in post-Assad Syria • The geopolitical ramifications for key players like Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the Gulf states. • Insights into the humanitarian crisis, with millions of Syrian refugees facing an uncertain future. • How the international community can mitigate risks of further conflict and fragmentation. Speakers: Jon Wilks CMG - Former British Ambassador and Special Envoy to Syria Vanda Felbab-Brown - Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Marco Vicenzino - Director, Global Project Strategy (GPS) Watch the recording here: https://lnkd.in/dym8tUR2

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗮𝗱: 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘀  The fall of Bashar al-Assad marks a seismic shift in the Syrian and regional landscape, presenting both opportunities and challenges for all involved parties. Here's a brief look at the winners and losers in this pivotal moment: 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 1. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲: After enduring over a decade of civil war and decades of authoritarian rule, Syrians now face a chance for a new beginning. However, this hope is tempered by risks of power vacuums and factional conflicts. 2. 𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘆: Leveraging its support for Islamist rebels, Turkey stands to gain strategically by curbing Kurdish aspirations and benefiting economically from Syria's reconstruction. 3. 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹: Assad’s fall weakens Iran and Hezbollah, strengthening Israel’s security. Proactive measures are being taken to manage potential chaos along the Syrian border. 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘀 1. 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗞𝘂𝗿𝗱𝘀: Autonomous governance in northeastern Syria may erode under a new regime influenced by Turkey-backed Islamist factions. 2. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗹𝗮𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆: A key pillar of Assad’s rule, the Alawites now face potential reprisals for their alignment with the regime. 3. 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮, 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗛𝗲𝘇𝗯𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗵: These strategic allies lost a critical foothold in Syria as resources are diverted to other challenges, such as Russia’s focus on Ukraine and Hezbollah’s diminishing influence after setbacks against Israel. The road ahead for Syria is full of uncertainty. While Assad’s departure signals an end to a brutal chapter, the challenges of rebuilding, reconciliation, and avoiding new conflicts remain formidable. Let’s hope this marks the start of a brighter future for the Syrian people. #Kadhum_Jabbar #Business #Consulting #Politics #Syria #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Russia #Iran #Turkey #Israel #Iraq