Goldman Sachs’ Post

US GDP is forecast to grow 2.5% next year, according to Goldman Sachs Research, above the consensus estimate of 1.9%. Read the 2025 Goldman Sachs US Outlook for a deeper dive on our economists' expectation for another year of strong economic growth. https://lnkd.in/d3qeSkvR #goldmansachs #economics #markets #gdp #outlook

This quarter, we held the Economy gauge in a neutral position to reflect the recent above-trend GDP growth, while acknowledging the possibility of a slowdown in the upcoming quarters. Watch the full video and download our Guide to the Gauges commentary here: https://lnkd.in/guc-3YeQ

US GDP is forecast to outperform expectations in 2025 GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCH ENORMOUS GROWTH IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION The world's largest economy is forecast to outperform economist expectations again next year, according to Goldman Sachs Research. US GDP is expected to grow 2.5% on a full-year basis, compared with 1.9% for the consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. GDP increase of 2.5 percent over inflation of 1.8 percent means enormous growth in income distribution. This increase goes directly to the fifth income group and produces real benefits to Cities especially.

Economic activity in the U.S. remains robust, fueled by consumer spending and a solid labor market. However, inflation concerns and tight credit conditions suggest that growth might cool in the near future, with GDP growth predictions at 2.5% for 2024 and 1.7% for 2025. https://ow.ly/2PgF50Rnsg8

Following a disappointing U.S. GDP report, I gave a BNN Bloomberg TV interview about the #economy, inflation, and interest rates. U.S. GDP showed a sharp deceleration in Q1 2024 to +1.6% from +3.4% in Q4 2023. Growth in absolute terms hit a record level, even though the pace of growth slowed. The biggest reason for the slowdown? A strong dollar weighed on Net Exports in Q1, which lowered GDP by -0.86%, which is close to a full percentage point. Trade fluctuations can impact growth a lot - But with high consumer #inflation and #strong jobs, the Fed could conceivably look to raise interest rates before the end of the year. Do you think the U.S. economy could handle more rate hikes? https://lnkd.in/g3WCxShh

 The US economy grew more slowly than initially thought during the first quarter, an annualized pace of 1.3% during the period, down from a first reading in April of 1.6% growth and in line with economist estimates. That is a notable slowdown from the 4th quarter of 2023 where the GDP grew at 3.4%. Personal consumption in the first quarter grew at 2%, down from a prior reading of 2.5%.

The US QoQ GDP reading revealed that the US economy grew at an impressive 4.9% in the 3rd quarter. Will the prelim Q4 reading beat the previous figure?? Expect potential US dollar volatility.

Our GDP Lead index combines various growth measures to understand the prospective impulse to GDP over the next few months. This gauge has typically been a strong barometer of business cycle conditions. Currently, this measure suggests neutral business cycle pressures, i.e., the economy remains largely  stable. #growth #macro #markets

Tomorrow we will receive the first GDP reading for 2024: It also happens to mark the most volatile quarter in over a year with inflation on the rise and geopolitical tensions worsening. Prediction markets currently expect 2.7% GDP growth to be reported. There's a 42% chance of GDP coming in above 2.9% and 25% of GDP coming in above 3.3%. If we do in fact get a 2.7% GDP reading, it would mark the 7th STRAIGHT quarter of 2%+ expansion. Yet, so many Americans continue to complain about how "bad" the economy is. Why is there such a big disconnect between data and reality?

Wow, the IMF has finally decided to grace us with a prediction about the economy! According to them, we can all look forward to growth in the second half of the year. Brace yourselves for the excitement and get all the juicy details in the blog post here: https://ift.tt/x5Q6tTr