Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi)’s Post

Yesterday, I joined ZDF Heute for an assessment of the current situation in Ukraine: 1) Ukraine’s long-range drone and cruise missile attacks on Russian oil, gas, chemical processing, and other critical industries are its best leverage at the moment. These strikes appear very effective, significantly increasing the costs of the war for Russia. 2) Along the frontline, Ukraine is under pressure. Manpower shortages are becoming an increasingly severe issue. 3) Ukraine will not lose in 2025, and the war’s outcome remains open. Russia, like Ukraine, cannot sustain the current intensity indefinitely— at current Russian recruitment numbers, daily losses of 1,000–1,500 men are likely unsustainable even in the medium term. 4) Europe must start preparing now for a complete withdrawal of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, which I believe is more likely than not under Trump. For the full assessment, you can watch the recording here (in German): https://lnkd.in/eG4GQwHg

The nations in the Area of Operation of Multinational Corps Northeast, including Germany, share a significant land border with Russia and Belarus. This geostrategic reality exposes us all to the potential threat of Russian aggression. The sense of urgency in these nations is palpable. In Germany, this sense of urgency, while not as acute, has been growing since the unlawful Russian invasion of Ukraine. This shift in our strategic environment, which in Germany is referred to as 'Zeitenwende', did not begin in 2022 but at least in 2014 with the also unlawful occupation of Crimea. Some argue it started even earlier. Together with their NATO comrades in our AOO, Bundeswehr soldiers are part of the first line of defence. For me, it is clear: Our freedom is under attack. At Multinational Corps Northeast, it is our task to ensure that our freedom will not be compromised. We will defend every inch of the territory of NATO Allies. Our readiness is a crucial precondition for success. However, it comes at a cost. Over the past decades, our defence budget, not just in Germany, has seen a decline. Now, we must invest a substantial amount of money to address the gaps and shortages we have inadvertently created. Gratefully our government has initiated the turn around. This investment is not a luxury, but a necessity. While there may be competing priorities, I firmly believe that our security is a zero-sum game. Every Euro not invested in defence heightens our vulnerability and diminishes our security. Yet, security is the bedrock of our daily lives in freedom and our ability to confront the challenges of tomorrow. For "The European," I was asked to share my thoughts on how stable our defence in the Northeastern flank really is. My answer is a question: How much vulnerability do we as a society allow as an open flank towards the enemy? As General Officers of the Bundeswehr, we bear a significant responsibility in answering this question. Over the past decades, we have witnessed a shrinking defence budget, with the belief that only 'out-of-area' operations would shape our future and that less would be more flexible. This was a miscalculation, and we are now facing the consequences. We are tasked with the challenging balancing act between international crisis management and deterrence and defence. At the same time, defence is a task for the whole society. Everybody has to lean in. Because ultimately, every threat is as massive as the vulnerability we allow ourselves. Please find hereby the Link to my article (in German). I'm looking forward to your opinion and will listen to your thoughts. https://lnkd.in/egRzP7a3

“It is not too late for #Ukraine to win. We have to send more arms and ammunition to 🇺🇦 including critical air defence and long-range weapons.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to Welt (in German). Yesterday, President Zelenskyy thanked Germany for delivering the fourth IRIS-T air defence system, and the decision to deliver a third Patriot system. It’s time for 🇩🇪 to also deliver the TAURUS long-range missile system, and for other #NATO allies to provide more of the vital air defence systems Ukraine needs right now. #StandWithUkraine https://lnkd.in/ecYmd2A3

Ukraine 🇺🇦- weapons use lift of caveats! Germany 🇩🇪 following US 🇺🇸 example. Good news and appeal for release of caveats by other Allies. My assessment: Ukraine will handle within operational and tactical requirements, and within legal framework of international law and rights. Due to Operations Security (OPSEC) reasons I will not comment further. Major impact on other Allies' policy can be expected, i.e. lift of caveats for weapons use against Russian military targets on Russian territory. Russia will reinforce STRATCOM of nuclear blackmail and irregular warfare/retaliation. So what? Increase pressure on Russia, China and other proxies by a robust „containment strategy“. My blog on „Ukraine – Forward Self Defence and Caveats on Weapons Use“ https://lnkd.in/eZ4mu2sb This decision initiated a paradigm shift and groundbreaking geopolitical change in favor of Ukrainian bravehearts: War fighting with nice effects based piece meal approach against the terrorist Russian regime. Putin should prepare the surrender. Disclaimer: Scholz‘ address to the Parliament on 06JUN2024 confirmed a different interpretation of my last comment. He loved himself again, as usual, with „besonnen“ and that he will again and again and again… take a decision, step by step. Officially the lifting of German caveats exclusively referred to the shithole Charkiv; meaning that Scholz‘ whisperer Schmidt, master of all intel services, will advise to impose restrictions on cross border weapons use once the situation there will be cleaned up? Well: This is cynical „piece meal“ tactics from outside, observing the slaughterhouse Ukraine. Myself I did not intend to state irony. From my military point of judgement - adapted to the „jungle“ of warfighting - the unrestricted (though within international law) release of weapons use would offer multiple varieties of effects based attacks and inflict significant losses in critical areas. I trust that Ukraine will be smart enough to calculate the impacts. Stefanie Dr. Babst NATO European Leadership Network (ELN) Peter B. Bartram Albert Klamt Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V. | DGAP Sibylle D. Susanne Koller M.A. Tony Sztypuljak Nikki Searancke Grant Shapps Robbie Boyd OBE Bundeswehr (German Federal Armed Forces) Bundesministerium der Verteidigung Roderich Kiesewetter Serap Güler Johann Wadephul Dr. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann Ihor Baranetskyi, Ph.D.

Nord Stream & Berlin-Moscow Axis - - It was in 2008: a chance encounter with an Eastern European military attaché and myself. - The conversation centred on relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and the Russian Federation, in particular Germany's energy supply with Russian gas. The military attaché was surprised that Germany's energy supply is dependent on the Russian Federation. He also pointed out that the agreements between Germany and the Russian Federation overshadowed the energy and security interests of the Eastern European states. This unilateral action by Germany jeopardises the security of Europe and NATO. - Today: - Nord Stream - Poland accuses Germany of pro-Russian stance - - German authorities accuse Poland of sabotage - Nord Stream has helped unleash the biggest war in Europe since World War II - after Georgia and Crimea, Nord Stream proponents are partly responsible for financing the wars of the imperial and fascist-inspired neo-Soviet war criminal nation Russian Federation. In this sense, the Nord Stream axis Berlin-Moscow is co-responsible. #NordStream #Gazprom #Gas #Russia #Moscow #Germany #Berlin #Poland #Ukraine #Europe #NATO #faz #taz taz.de https://lnkd.in/e3wmWggj

🇩🇪 Record-Breaking Year: German Arms Exports Hit €13.33B in 2024 Germany's arms exports reached an unprecedented high, with €8.15B (61%) supporting 🇺🇦 Ukraine's defense efforts. This marks a 10% increase from 2023's previous record of €12.13B. Key recipients after Ukraine: 🇸🇬 Singapore: €1.21B 🇩🇿 Algeria: €558.7M 🇺🇸 USA: €319.9M 🇹🇷 Turkey: €230.8M Notable shifts: 👆 Turkey: Highest export level since 2006, including torpedoes and submarine components 👇 Israel: Exports halved to €161.1M amid Gaza conflict This surge reflects Germany's policy shift following Russia's invasion, making us Ukraine's second-largest arms supplier. #Defense #ForeignPolicy #Germany #Ukraine #InternationalTrade #GeopoliticalUpdates Thoughts on this significant shift in German defense exports? Source: https://zurl.co/ryZWz

🇩🇪 Record-Breaking Year: German Arms Exports Hit €13.33B in 2024 Germany's arms exports reached an unprecedented high, with €8.15B (61%) supporting 🇺🇦 Ukraine's defense efforts. This marks a 10% increase from 2023's previous record of €12.13B. Key recipients after Ukraine: 🇸🇬 Singapore: €1.21B 🇩🇿 Algeria: €558.7M 🇺🇸 USA: €319.9M 🇹🇷 Turkey: €230.8M Notable shifts: 👆 Turkey: Highest export level since 2006, including torpedoes and submarine components 👇 Israel: Exports halved to €161.1M amid Gaza conflict This surge reflects Germany's policy shift following Russia's invasion, making us Ukraine's second-largest arms supplier. #Defense #ForeignPolicy #Germany #Ukraine #InternationalTrade #GeopoliticalUpdates Thoughts on this significant shift in German defense exports? Source: https://zurl.co/ryZWz

https://lnkd.in/d_C2YfGE This will not be an easy time for the people of Ukraine. Fear for the future, while military aid from the USA is being increased once again. I wonder whether our either-or thinking is not a cause of many of the world's problems? Ukraine in NATO or not in NATO, in the Eurasian Economic Union or the EU? How about "AND"? Ukraine (as a neutral country) and Russia as part of the NATO Partnership for Peace! Ukraine concludes bilateral agreements with the Eurasian Economic Union AND the EU! The "AND" was one of the most central statements in the book "New World Manager", which I read in the late 1990s.

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany has been wrestling with the question how much (more) to spend on its own defense and that of Europe. Some observers even see the country in the thralls of a new armament euphoria. Critics of bigger military budgets have pointed out that the European #NATO states are already spending three times as much on defense as Russia while the latter is "bleeding out" on the battlefields of Ukraine. But these are flawed starting points for assessing whether Germany should invest more in military capabilities, argues GPPi's Lea Marlene Korb in a new commentary. Moscow is gearing up for a long confrontation with the West – and NATO may be spending more in absolute terms, but more money doesn't equal readiness. As things stand today, Lea explains, Europe would hardly be able to defend itself against Russia without support from the United States. ➡ Read why that must change (in German): https://lnkd.in/dVhRRA6H