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Wanderer on this cosmic accident 'Earth', wonderer on the nature of humans, their motivations and actions, ponderer on financial markets and their gyrations, guide and custodian of people's wealth and financial security.
"Long-only mode" | Wednesday, 19 November 2024, post-market | Nov MTD +4.2%
- We moved into a "single name-only, long-only" mode on Wednesday.
- We think squeeze risk is elevated from here to YE, and the short alpha-hunting environment will be unfavourable.
- Our base case macro view is constructive into YE. We unwound our hedges around the SPX 5880 level and staying unhedged unless/until there is a shift in market dynamics.
- We will move down our normal single name allocation from 5% to 3% in the "Trump 2.0 era" in response to the "Trump risk" (i.e., Trump saying or doing things that will cause a sharp decline in a particular group of stocks). This will significantly lower our single-theme concentration. We suffered a 3%+ drawdown mainly due to the ~20% decline of the "defense theme".
- The market turns out to be hardly "tradable". It is difficult to confidently define a trading strategy around geopolitical risks and cabinet nominations nervousness.
- We stayed "crypto-less". BTC or MSTR would have been "easy money". However, we did not participate because (a) We did not want to bet on election results. Now, we do not want to chase a hot trade "after the fact" (Trump win). Trump's pro-crypto stance is well-known to the public. BTC and MSTR/COIN are household/YOLO names. (b) We hesitate to take crypto risk or YOLO sentiment risk here. We are in a very different liquidity (ongoing QT + Yen near 160) and rates (terminal rate near 4%) environment compared to early 2021. We also do not see the inevitability of the market returning to a YOLO market for a sustainable period. Crypto/YOLO names likely will not be the "only game in town", nor do they necessarily improve the risk-return profile of a portfolio.
- Overall, we think the market has (somewhat) normalised. Intraday volatility returned. We think this is a more "sustainable" path higher compared to the "super hot melt-up" immediately after the election.
Global inflation: from interest rates to fiscal policies, it’s the hidden tax no one’s talking about. What lies beneath? We’ll explore this and more at #CrossroadsSummit2024https://lnkd.in/g4C6Vxxv
An independent financial market analysts in FX, commodity, equities, and alternatives. Contractor, freelancer, media presentation. Euronews, FPG Global, Good Money Guide, FXStreet
With less than a week to go until the US presidential election, financial markets are anticipating a potential #Trump victory.
The term "Trump Trade" has gained popularity among investors as his proposed policies – including those on tariffs, immigration, aid to Ukraine, and cryptocurrency regulation – have influenced trends across all asset classes. This trend has seen the US #dollar, #gold, #silver, and #Bitcoin strengthen, while stock markets feel the pressure.
Euronews What investors need to know about markets and the US election
🎙 Welcome to the PAI Morning Briefing 🎙
I’m your host from PantheonAI, and today is December 20, 2024. As the year winds down, the markets are presenting a challenging yet intriguing landscape. Let’s break down today’s key developments and trends shaping the financial world.
📊 Market Overview
Yesterday, major indices took a hit:
• S&P 500: Down 0.8% to 5,867
• Dow Jones: Down 0.3% to 42,342
• Nasdaq: Fell nearly 1% to 19,373
• Russell 2000: Dropped 1.3% to 2,222
In cryptocurrencies, declines mirrored the broader sell-off:
• Bitcoin: Down 3.5%, now at $94,000
• Ethereum: Dropped over 5%, priced at $3,241
🔑 Key Market Drivers
1️⃣ U.S. Fiscal Policy in Focus
House Speaker Johnson is working on a new fiscal plan, with Plan C currently in the spotlight. If successful, this could calm markets jittery over fiscal tightening and political uncertainty.
2️⃣ Oil Prices Under Pressure
Crude futures face downward pressure from a strong U.S. dollar and weakened demand signals from China. Prolonged declines could impact global economic forecasts.
3️⃣ Major Corporate Moves
• CCC Intelligent Solutions is acquiring EvolutionIQ for $730M, coupled with a planned $300M stock buyback, signaling confidence in its future performance.
• Trump Media & Technology Group saw its stock drop 6% after Trump transferred his $4B stake into a revocable trust.
4️⃣ Crypto Developments
Momentum is building around the U.S. Bitcoin reserve, with advocates pushing for Bitcoin as a national strategic asset. Could this power the next crypto rally?
5️⃣ Pharmaceutical Volatility
Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drug failed in trials, sending its stock lower, while Eli Lilly gained on the news. It’s a reminder of the high stakes in pharmaceutical innovation.
🛠 Sector Spotlights
• Technology: Holiday-season innovations like repairable laptops and privacy-conscious devices highlight consumer demand for sustainability and control.
• Energy: Slowing oil demand amid global uncertainty continues to drive volatility. Watch this space for further impacts on inflation.
• Finance: With fiscal tightening looming, diversification remains crucial for protecting portfolios from potential inflationary pressures.
💡 Expert Insights
Challenges persist, but opportunities abound for those prepared to navigate volatility with informed strategies. Diversification and sector-specific plays in technology, energy, and finance could offer growth potential in this complex environment.
Thank you for joining today’s PAI Morning Briefing. I’ll see you again tomorrow as we continue to unpack the trends shaping markets and investments. Stay informed, stay agile, and stay ahead!
#Finance#Markets#Cryptocurrency#Investing#PantheonAI#EquityAI#TechStocks#FiscalPolicy#CryptoNews#StockMarket#ElonMuskhttps://lnkd.in/e6tHN7Yk
In this week's newsletter we examine Bitcoin’s market dynamics, focusing on the contrasting behavior of short-term holders and large-scale investors amid recent price movements.
Read it here👇
https://lnkd.in/dYKWwYMw
Kick off 2024 informed: Our new blog post delves into the key financial drivers shaping markets this year, from inflation and interest rates to oil prices and Bitcoin's rise!
READ IT NOW🔎 - https://lnkd.in/efCBjqbM
"On the Spot: Equity Markets Wake Up" ⏰
The latest 'On the Spot' is out now with Richard Matthews, Alex-Desmond Brathwaite & Michael Brown! The key talking points; UK inflation remains high, Bitcoin halving ends, and the Fed continue to exercise caution.
Alex-Desmond tells all from 'Behind from desk' 👀:
"On the trading desk, we've noticed a modest uptick in BTC buy orders. While the trajectory of this bull market remains uncertain, historical patterns suggest that new all-time highs are plausible. Although alternative coins haven't experienced the same level of bullish momentum as in previous cycles, it's premature to dismiss them entirely."
Find out more 👉 https://lnkd.in/emaziQMv#FX#Markets#Bitcoin#Fed#BoE
Client Liaison
1moFascinating breakdown of the November market trends. The commentary really helped me understand the bigger picture.