Georgetown Security Studies Review ’s Post

Looks like the Biden administration has forgotten that there are American and Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas, including children. The goal, I think, is to mess things up as much as possible before Trump. Don't forget Biden just gave 10 billion USD of taxpayer money to Iran. ▪️BIDEN ADMINISTRATION YELLS AT IDF COGAT. Special envoy for humanitarian affairs, Liz Grande, meets with the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, Major General Rasan Alian, and conveys to him a series of American demands: 1.⁠ ⁠Israel must issue an official statement that it is not pursuing a starvation policy in Gaza 2.⁠ ⁠Cancel the evacuation orders for the populations in Gaza (moving out of areas from which attacks are being launched) 3.⁠ ⁠Allow the population to return to places that were evacuated in the past 4.⁠ ⁠Present a comprehensive plan to reduce damage to civilian infrastructure. "There are elements in our administration who believe that the damage to civilian infrastructure in the Gaza Strip is disproportionate." The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, astonished by the American criticism - and especially by its timing, at a time when pressure should be put on Hamas for a hostage deal, and especially after Israel has complied with American demands to increase the scope of humanitarian aid. "What proportionality is expected of the IDF in its activities against a terrorist organization that operates as a method of warfare use of civilian and humanitarian facilities - including hospitals, residential buildings, UN facilities - at a time when there are still 100 Israeli hostages in these areas. I am surprised that you suggest that we are pursuing a policy starvation.” More details in the full story on n12 

The number of children killed in recent months is higher than the number of children killed in four years in conflicts around the world. Humanitarian aid has become a weapon and an element of war for many parties to the conflict. The situation highlights the urgent need for a global reevaluation and transformation of our priorities and systems to not only address immediate humanitarian crises but also to fundamentally rethink our approach to peace, security, and aid in conflict zones, as well as to revise our thinking that we are developed populations compared to ancestral tribes. To channel my thoughts, I made a movie: https://lnkd.in/dw8czVaz

The number of children killed in recent months is higher than the number of children killed in four years in conflicts around the world. Humanitarian aid has become a weapon and an element of war for many parties to the conflict. The situation highlights the urgent need for a global reevaluation and transformation of our priorities and systems to not only address immediate humanitarian crises but also to fundamentally rethink our approach to peace, security, and aid in conflict zones, as well as to revise our thinking that we are developed populations compared to ancestral tribes. To channel my thoughts, I made a movie: https://lnkd.in/d3X9XTJS

Conflict is the primary reason for forced migration and displacement, leading millions of people out of their homes. The threat imposed by weapons of mass destruction, as well as conventional arms, calls for urgent action to be taken globally and stresses the need to strengthen the efforts currently being made to preserve international peace and security. To raise awareness, the United Nations has designated this week as United Nations #DisarmamentWeek, starting on October 24th, the day marking the anniversary of the organization’s founding. Despite the efforts, there is still much to be done. According to the ACLED Conflict Index, 1 in 7 people are estimated to have been exposed to conflict so far in 2024, with 50 countries ranking in the index categories for extreme, high, or turbulent levels of conflict, with Palestine being currently considered the most dangerous and violent place in the world. The award-winning documentary “It’s Bisan From Gaza - and I’m Still Alive” reports the devastating impact on civilians in the Gaza Strip. In Ukraine, tens of thousands of casualties have been reported at the frontlines, with more than 6 million civilians being displaced. Urban conflicts, the re-emergence of chemical weapons, and cyberattacks disproportionately affect the civilian population, while the war industry consumes 80 times more governmental funds than are allocated for humanitarian aid. Thus, all nations must commit to disarmament and arms control to achieve a common goal: a safer and more secure world. “Disarmament must be brought back to the centre of our common efforts for peace and security.” - António Guterres https://lnkd.in/d-gFh7b Data on current conflict situations across the globe can be found at: https://lnkd.in/eM7V47cU More information about disarmament and the need for disarmament education can be found at: https://lnkd.in/d-gFh7b https://lnkd.in/dGErGhrN

Myanmar has endured prolonged conflict for decades, pitting government forces against non-state armed groups primarily organised along ethnic lines. By October 2023, three prominent armed factions in the North East joined together to accelerate confrontations with the government. Coordinated attacks flared in other regions, including South East and Rakhine states, significantly amplifying civilian casualties and humanitarian needs within the nation. Read on to learn four reasons why the IRC’s Emergency Watchlist ranks Myanmar as one of the countries most at risk of experiencing a worsening humanitarian crisis in 2024: https://lnkd.in/eGghEexF

https://lnkd.in/eHdNJAdu Israel is set to try a novel approach for administering postwar Gaza, establishing “bubbles” intended to be free of Hamas influence, The Financial Times reported on Monday, noting that this plan has been met with skepticism from many in Israel’s security establishment. On Sunday I cited here a Wall Street Journal report that reminded me of the “Palestinian emirates” plan proposed by Orientalist Dr. Mordechai Kedar to establish city-state emirates, based on the structure of Arab society which is hyper-local and tribal. The WSJ on Saturday reported that Israel is preparing to establish something reminiscent of Dr. Kedar’s plan in Gaza. According to the report, some officials are proposing a strategy to establish designated zones or enclaves where Gazan civilians who are not affiliated with Hamas could find temporary refuge while Israeli forces continue operations against remaining terrorists (Report: Israel Planning to Carve Up Gaza into Separate Zones). According to the FT, the experimental program, which envisions creating “humanitarian enclaves,” is slated to begin soon in Gaza’s northern areas of Atatra, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahia. This initiative is seen as a prototype for Israel’s vision of postwar Gaza management, according to six sources familiar with the strategy. Despite the IDF’s imminent launch of these pilot zones, there’s widespread doubt about their feasibility. Challenges include fierce opposition from Hamas, disagreements within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet on the specifics, and lukewarm support from Arab nations. One insider privy to the plan dismissed it as a “fantasy” project. The proposed plan involves Israeli forces channeling humanitarian aid from the Erez crossing in the north to approved Arab locals. These individuals would be responsible for distributing the aid and progressively taking on more civilian governance duties in the area. Initially, Israeli military personnel would maintain security oversight. If this approach proves effective, Israel intends to gradually extend these zones southward throughout Gaza. This strategy aims to supplant Hamas’s governance, which has been in place for nearly 20 years. An insider familiar with Israeli strategy suggested that this plan could also serve as leverage in the ongoing, difficult negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal with Hamas. The Financial Times also reported that violent confrontations broke out in central Gaza last week between Hamas security forces and members of a prominent local clan. The conflict arose after Hamas executed the leader of the Abu Amra family, accusing him of being open to Israeli proposals. This information comes from a Gaza-based security source.

🌍 As one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises unfolds in #Sudan as a consequence of the war, it is crucial to consider all means to end the violence 🕊 These maps by Al Jazeera Media Network give a rich overview of how the violence across many parts of Sudan has evolved since April 2023. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/dNvZyvGx ⚠️ 75 percent of the fighting has been concentrated around Khartoum, Gezira State, and North Darfur, with the remaining 25 percent taking place in South Darfur, North Kordofan, and West Darfur. Given the high level of concentration, is it viable to push for certain considerations along geographic lines? For example, this could relate to pathways for humanitarian access (or for civilian populations to move freely in protected areas) or to facilitating the parties' agreement to cease fighting (and siege) in certain areas. Our recent research, which draws on the Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset by the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich shows that local ceasefires might be helpful in ending violence and initiating or advancing a peace process–possibly also in Sudan. The full findings are yet to be published, but here are some early insights: 🔍 Widespread Usage: Local ceasefires have been most prominent in the Middle East but have also materialised in Asia, Africa, and Europe between 1989 and 2020. 🔍 Nature of Agreements: Localceasefires are predominantly oral agreements, often declared unilaterally by one conflict party. However, they can also involve two or more conflict parties. 🔍 Purpose: Local ceasefires can serve humanitarian, peace process-related, or conflict escalation prevention purposes, amongst others. A single local ceasefire can pursue multiple objectives in parallel. 🔍 Key Players: Available data suggests that local ceasefires rarely lead to the fragmentation of armed non-state groups. 🔍 Limited Prearrangements: Typically, local ceasefires are not linked to prior arrangements between conflict parties. 🔍 Catalysts for Peace? While they don’t systematically initiate peace negotiations, a notable minority have paved the way for or accompanied broader thematic talks between conflict parties. 🔍 Variety: Existing research shows that various types of local ceasefires exist, which differ regarding the key actors they involve, the purpose they serve, their timing, and their geographic scope, amongst others. Specific types of local ceasefires might be more relevant in certain conflict-affected contexts than others. 🔍 Civil Society Inclusion: Civil society can enable local ceasefires as negotiators, mediators, and implementers. In protracted armed conflicts like Sudan, could local ceasefires serve as a bridge toward sustainable peace? Let’s start the conversation. Open Society Foundations African Union IGAD #Peacemaking #InclusivePeace #ConflictResolution #SudanCrisis #Innovation #PeaceResearch

In Syria, the sound of peace is overshadowed by escalating conflict. With a 33% increase in violent incidents, civilians face escalating dangers. As global crises unfold, the intensifying struggle in Syria underscores the urgent need for focused action. The critical path forward requires the cessation of hostilities, enhanced protection of civilians and infrastructure, and amplified support for humanitarian and early recovery efforts. Learn more here: https://lnkd.in/enRdn3-K

America’s support for Israel’s security – in the wake of the October 7 Hamas massacre, and for decades before – has been consistently reaffirmed, and enjoys broad public endorsement. An overwhelming majority of Americans stand by Israel per a recent Harvard-Harris poll. This has been reiterated by President Biden, even as he both urges Israel to do more, and acknowledges the steps Israel has already taken, to ensure Palestinians in Gaza receive further humanitarian aid. Israel, the U.S., and key partners in the region have worked tirelessly toward a temporary ceasefire in which hostages held by Hamas terrorists will be returned to their loved ones in Israel. As has been publicly reported, it is Hamas, not Israel, that is standing in the way of a deal. The war and suffering in Gaza would end today if Hamas, the proud perpetrator of multiple war crimes, released all hostages and no longer threatened Israeli civilians. In a recent interview, President Biden made an error when referencing a prisoner exchange as part of the temporary ceasefire deal. We must be clear, this deal would include the release of only some of the 100-plus living hostages held by Hamas, in exchange for a larger number of Palestinian prisoners held for terrorism-related offenses, including the most grievous – an unequal trade, but a reminder of the high value Israel places on every life, and the intense commitment to bring every Israeli home.

Israel Gaza::Joint Staement: Norway and Spain: We, the President of the Government of Spain and the Prime Minister of Norway, met in Oslo, Norway, on Friday 12 April to discuss the current situation in the Middle East, including the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. We discussed the heinous terrorist attack on 7 October carried out by Hamas and expressed our deepest sympathies with the people and State of Israel. We agreed on the urgency of ensuring the unconditional release of all remaining hostages, and in condemning the use of sexual and gender-based violence during and in the aftermath of the Hamas-led terror attacks. We discussed the appalling situation in Gaza, and Israel’s indiscriminate and disproportionate use of force and other measures. ….all parties have a clear duty to protect civilians. We agreed:..urgent need for an immediate ceasefire and a drastic and sustained increase of humanitarian aid into, and within, Gaza, where famine is imminent. We …agreed that Israel must do much more to allow for this to happen. …….We agreed that all attacks on civilians, …the recent attack on the World Central Kitchen aid convoy, are unacceptable. We discussed the many challenges facing the Palestinian Authority and agreed to support the new Government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa, and its reform agenda, and stressed the need for the unification of the West Bank and Gaza under one legitimate authority. We agreed that Israel needs to make fundamental changes to its policies in order for the Palestinian Authority to be able to function and deliver to its people. We agreed that the implementation of the two-state solution, where Israelis and Palestinians are living side-by-side in peace and security, is vital for peace and stability in the region. We further agreed that Palestinian statehood is a condition for the realisation of the two-state solution, in line with the UN partition plan of 1947. We discussed our readiness to recognise Palestine as a state and support its full membership in the United Nations and emphasised that we will do so when it can make a genuine and positive contribution to a political process toward peace between Israel and Palestine. We also discussed how we and others should coordinate with ongoing initiatives going forward, including the Arab Peace Plan. This political approach will be key for mutual recognition and peace in the region. We highlighted the vital role of UNRWA, both in Gaza and the broader region. We welcomed announcements by countries to resume support to the organisation, and agreed that all countries who have suspended their contributions should reconsider their decisions and adhere to their commitments. Finally, we discussed the unacceptable and unlawful attacks on civilian ships in the Red Sea, as well as our mutual concern for the increasing unrest in the broader Middle East Region. We further agreed that all actors must show restraint and contribute to de-escalation.