Georgetown Security Studies Review ’s Post

Attacks on nuclear power plants in the Russia/Ukraine war seem to be growing more frequent and have moved into Russia as well as Ukraine. This is the 3rd auspicious and dangerous threats in as many days, but the nuclear attacks by Ukraine in Russia are recent, while the attacks on Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is operated by Russia, have been going on for more than two years. But the fact that nuclear power plants are becoming more frequently involved in these skirmishes demonstrates that it may be easier to fight a nuclear war involving radioactive power plants than it is to fight a war with conventional weapons. One could easily say that this war has already turned into a nuclear war, which could indicate that nuclear war is already officially underway. This ongoing situation could get much worse, and, of course, will never get better if the nuclear reactors at these nuclear power plants (and others) are used as weapons of mass destruction. ~llaw

#ChineseNuclearPush #majorgeneraldrsbasthana #Pentagon has estimated that #China has more than 600 nukes now and is expected to have more than 1000 by 2030. In this context, sharing an analysis of mine published in #moderndiplomacy (European Union) on the subject. China is growing its nuclear arsenal at unprecedented pace, citing security concerns with #US & #Russia having more than 5000 each. Issues analysed:- -How Chinese Grand Strategy Propagates Nuclear Expansionism? -‘Minimum Deterrence Strategy’  to ‘Limited Nuclear Deterrence’. -Chinese Nuclear Modernisation Trajectory -How Chinese Nuclear Strategy Puts Global Disarmament in Reverse Gear? -How Does Chinese Nuclear Strategy Impacts India? -Should India Revisit Its Nuclear Doctrine or Modernisation Plans?https://lnkd.in/dHwjxB_q

https://lnkd.in/d2t9fX_a Advantage Over Parity: Assessing China’s Expanding Nuclear Arsenal Robert Peters and Andrew Harding Jun 6, 2024 China is the fastest growing nuclear power on the planet, building 100 new nuclear warheads every year. While many assume that China’s nuclear arsenal will be the same size as that of the United States’ by 2035, this is mere speculation in absence of evidence. Indeed, there is ample historical reason to believe that China will seek to grow a nuclear arsenal that is substantially larger and more advanced than the United States’ in the coming two decades. Accordingly, the U.S. may need a nuclear arsenal that is larger and more diverse than the one it has now if it hopes to deter simultaneously Russia and China. China is the fastest expanding nuclear power on the planet, having built over 100 new nuclear weapons every year for the past three years. The Department of Defense expects China will not reach nuclear parity with the United States for another 10 years. There is little reason, to believe, however, that China will be satisfied with nuclear parity—or that it will not seek nuclear advantage over the United States.

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT Pen Dr. Ibrahim Online News The Real Motives for China’s Nuclear Expansion Beijing Seeks Geopolitical Leverage More Than Military Advantage By Pen Dr. Ibrahim online News May 3, 2024 China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping, Beijing is on track to amass 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, up from around 200 in 2019, according to Pentagon estimates. This nuclear buildup, combined with China’s…

As of October 2024, Iran has not yet produced a nuclear bomb, but it is dangerously close to having the capability to do so. The country has enriched uranium to 60% purity, which is just below the 90% needed for weapons-grade material. Experts estimate that Iran could potentially produce enough enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb within a matter of days if it decided to pursue it further. However, it would take additional time to weaponize the material and develop a deliverable nuclear device. Despite these capabilities, Iran has not officially made the political decision to build a nuclear weapon, maintaining that nuclear weapons are not part of its defense doctrine. However, the international community, including the U.S. and Israel, remains deeply concerned, especially given Iran's ongoing expansion of its nuclear facilities and centrifuges at sites like Fordow and Natanz [oai_citation:2,Will Iran Get the Bomb in 2024? • Stimson Center](https://lnkd.in/dVecJee5) [oai_citation:1,Iran Is Shockingly Close to Nuclear Breakout Potential; The World Must Act](https://lnkd.in/db5h82St). The situation is fluid, and while Iran could technically develop a nuclear weapon relatively quickly, the actual decision to do so has not been confirmed.

https://lnkd.in/e_2JceKq It is U.S which initially transferred the nuclear technology when Shah of Iran was very friendly with Iran.I am against nuclear proliferation.But if Russia completes the full transfer of nuclear technology to Iran what is wrong.Nuclear technology changed the concept of balance of power to balance of terror.

How would regional states view South Korea going nuclear? We recently held a workshop with Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Seoul | Regional Office East Asia / Global Dialogue and invited guests from Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines and Mongolia. Some excellent essays on this topic are forthcoming, edited by yours truly. Meanwhile, a top-level takeaway is that messaging to counter pro-nuclear voices in South Korea should be arranged around four themes: ⛑ Humanitarian impact of nuclear conflict: A nuclear conflict would affect all regional states 💸 Material costs of going nuclear: Nuclear acquisition would be costly to South Koreans ⚛ The impact on South Korea’s nuclear industry: Going nuclear would threaten South Korea's energy security 📉 Reputational costs of going nuclear: South Korea's reputation in the region would suffer ➡ Read a brief summary here: https://lnkd.in/gr9FMxgU

https://lnkd.in/dnU_inCJ We need a new discussion about Iran’s nuclear weapons work David Albright and Sarah Burkhard August 6, 2024 U.S. intelligence is shielding the Biden-Harris administration from having to take serious action on Iran’s nuclear program. For years, they clamored repeatedly that Iran was not “currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.” Now, it has shifted slightly to Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” While hinting at nuclear weapon activities taking place, it is focusing on public Iranian statements and old news on Iran’s capabilities to produce weapon-grade uranium, while continuing to avoid any type of public discussion on what nuclear weaponization activities Iran may be undertaking and how long it would take Iran to produce a testable nuclear device if it started today.

Today in Asia Times, I wrote about how the US is unprepared for a nuclear showdown with China. With China rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal and capabilities, the US faces significant challenges in modernizing its forces and adjusting its strategic doctrines. The current US approach is outdated and lacks the necessary adaptability to respond effectively to a nuclear crisis, especially in the context of tensions over Taiwan. The Center for a New American Security report underscores the urgent need for the US to enhance its nuclear strategy and leadership focus. The US must prioritize integrating conventional and nuclear forces and improve strategic communication with China to prevent miscalculations. Without these changes, the US risks being caught off guard in a nuclear standoff, which would have severe consequences for global stability.

https://lnkd.in/e_2JceKq It is U.S which initially transferred the nuclear technology when Shah of Iran was very friendly with Iran.I am against nuclear proliferation.But if Russia completes the full transfer of nuclear technology to Iran what is wrong.Nuclear technology changed the concept of balance of power to balance of terror.